Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southampton, NY
May 18, 2024 10:32 AM EDT (14:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:29 AM Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 3:19 PM Moonset 3:02 AM |
ANZ094
No data
No data
ANZ005 926 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm - A disturbance will cross the region today through tonight, then exit across the maritimes Sun. High pres then builds across the waters later Sun through mid week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 181323 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 923 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weakening upper level trough will approach from the west today and move across the area tonight, otherwise surface high pressure will remain in control through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches late in the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Updated the forecast to increase PoPs over eastern zones, especially over SE CT. Lift from a surface inverted trough and shortwave shifting south and slightly west in this area have been producing some showers over the area. Thinking the activity here decreases this afternoon as some CAMS imply. Meanwhile a stronger shortwave to our SW may introduce showers across southern/western portions of the forecast area mainly this afternoon into early evening. High pressure will otherwise continue to slowly ridge south across New England and into the forecast area, and a large area of low pressure over the western Atlantic continues to send moisture into the area.
Along with the chance of showers, plenty of cloud cover across the region.
Highs are forecast to range from the lower 60s across far eastern LI and SE CT, to around 70 from NYC and points north and west. This is generally a few degrees below normal. However, with the cloud cover, expect lows tonight in the 50s, slightly above normal. Temperature guidance is generally in good agreement with a slight upward trend.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface high pressure along the new England coast remains in control during this time. Patchy light rain/drizzle may linger in the morning for far eastern areas, otherwise expect gradual improvement with decreasing clouds from west to east in the afternoon. This could be short-lived though for eastern LI and SE CT, where low clouds may linger or redevelop during the nighttime hours. Any clouds work east on Monday along with the surface ridge axis. Aloft, a high amplitude ridge builds over top of the area.
Temperatures will be on the uptick Sunday into Monday due to a lot more sun. Sunday will be a touch warmer than Saturday, but jumping to 75 to 80 north and west of NYC on Monday, with much of the coast getting to around 70.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
*Key Points*
*Above normal temperatures through midweek.
*A cold front approaches late in the week, bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Upper ridging noses into the region from the southern US early to mid week, becoming suppressed late in the week in response to a developing closed upper low drifting east across the northern plains/Great Lakes. Quite a bit of model spread on the evolution of this low, which manifests in timing and progressiveness differences in the resultant cold front pushing towards and into the region late in the week.
Before then, good agreement in high pressure over the region this weekend, slowly sinking se of the region and developing a return deep SW flow into the region by midweek. The result will likely be dry conditions with temps moderating to 10 to 15 degrees above normal away from the coast Tue thru Thu. Based on setup, and 850mb temps in the mid teens, have leaned away from cooler deterministic NBM and towards the higher NBM 50th percentile (high in the mid 80s)
for NE NJ and areas to the NW. NBM 75th percentile has temps approaching 90 in this area, which is plausible with deep mixing and SW flow. Meanwhile, SW flow off mid 50 degree waters will likely keep temps in 70s along the coast, but still seasonable.
Shower/tstm potential exists ahead/along pre-frontal trough and cold front, but with aforementioned upper low and frontal timing differences, have capped potential at low chance, possibly as early as Wed eve, with better chance Thu aft/eve. CSU MLP marginal severe storm threat for areas west of the Hudson River Wed eve, and the entire area Thu aft/eve looks reasonable based on synoptic and thermodynamic setup.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weak high pressure will be in place today through Sunday, with a weak warm front dissipating as it moves in from the west tonight.
MVFR cigs for KGON/KISP this AM, and will likely develop into KBDR by mid morning. MVFR cigs will likely persist for the eastern terminals through the day. Meanwhile NYC/NJ terminals will likely remain VFR this AM, with patchy MVFR cigs possible in the aft/eve. Increasing likelihood for MVFR cigs spreading west into NYC/NJ terminals tonight, with widespread MVFR or lower cigs likely for Sun AM push.
Isolated shower threat for eastern terminals this AM, then for all terminals in the aft/eve.
NE/E winds 10 kt or less today into tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Patchy MVFR cigs during AM push. Low prob for MVFR cigs for PM push, with isolated shra possible for eve push. MVFR cigs likely for Sun AM push.
NE winds of 7 to 10 kt, likely becoming E/SE in the afternoon with hybrid sea breeze development, except KLGA.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday...MVFR or lower in the AM, gradually improving to VFR.
Light E/NE winds.
Monday...MVFR AM, then VFR.
Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Based on recent buoy obs and guidance, dropped the SCA on the ocean waters with the expectation of waves prevailing under 5 ft for the rest of the day. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the waters will likely sustain sub SCA levels through the middle of next week. The exception will be the potential for marginal southerly SCA gusts in and around the entrance to NY Harbor with coastal jet formation Wed aft/eve.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 923 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weakening upper level trough will approach from the west today and move across the area tonight, otherwise surface high pressure will remain in control through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches late in the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Updated the forecast to increase PoPs over eastern zones, especially over SE CT. Lift from a surface inverted trough and shortwave shifting south and slightly west in this area have been producing some showers over the area. Thinking the activity here decreases this afternoon as some CAMS imply. Meanwhile a stronger shortwave to our SW may introduce showers across southern/western portions of the forecast area mainly this afternoon into early evening. High pressure will otherwise continue to slowly ridge south across New England and into the forecast area, and a large area of low pressure over the western Atlantic continues to send moisture into the area.
Along with the chance of showers, plenty of cloud cover across the region.
Highs are forecast to range from the lower 60s across far eastern LI and SE CT, to around 70 from NYC and points north and west. This is generally a few degrees below normal. However, with the cloud cover, expect lows tonight in the 50s, slightly above normal. Temperature guidance is generally in good agreement with a slight upward trend.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface high pressure along the new England coast remains in control during this time. Patchy light rain/drizzle may linger in the morning for far eastern areas, otherwise expect gradual improvement with decreasing clouds from west to east in the afternoon. This could be short-lived though for eastern LI and SE CT, where low clouds may linger or redevelop during the nighttime hours. Any clouds work east on Monday along with the surface ridge axis. Aloft, a high amplitude ridge builds over top of the area.
Temperatures will be on the uptick Sunday into Monday due to a lot more sun. Sunday will be a touch warmer than Saturday, but jumping to 75 to 80 north and west of NYC on Monday, with much of the coast getting to around 70.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
*Key Points*
*Above normal temperatures through midweek.
*A cold front approaches late in the week, bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Upper ridging noses into the region from the southern US early to mid week, becoming suppressed late in the week in response to a developing closed upper low drifting east across the northern plains/Great Lakes. Quite a bit of model spread on the evolution of this low, which manifests in timing and progressiveness differences in the resultant cold front pushing towards and into the region late in the week.
Before then, good agreement in high pressure over the region this weekend, slowly sinking se of the region and developing a return deep SW flow into the region by midweek. The result will likely be dry conditions with temps moderating to 10 to 15 degrees above normal away from the coast Tue thru Thu. Based on setup, and 850mb temps in the mid teens, have leaned away from cooler deterministic NBM and towards the higher NBM 50th percentile (high in the mid 80s)
for NE NJ and areas to the NW. NBM 75th percentile has temps approaching 90 in this area, which is plausible with deep mixing and SW flow. Meanwhile, SW flow off mid 50 degree waters will likely keep temps in 70s along the coast, but still seasonable.
Shower/tstm potential exists ahead/along pre-frontal trough and cold front, but with aforementioned upper low and frontal timing differences, have capped potential at low chance, possibly as early as Wed eve, with better chance Thu aft/eve. CSU MLP marginal severe storm threat for areas west of the Hudson River Wed eve, and the entire area Thu aft/eve looks reasonable based on synoptic and thermodynamic setup.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weak high pressure will be in place today through Sunday, with a weak warm front dissipating as it moves in from the west tonight.
MVFR cigs for KGON/KISP this AM, and will likely develop into KBDR by mid morning. MVFR cigs will likely persist for the eastern terminals through the day. Meanwhile NYC/NJ terminals will likely remain VFR this AM, with patchy MVFR cigs possible in the aft/eve. Increasing likelihood for MVFR cigs spreading west into NYC/NJ terminals tonight, with widespread MVFR or lower cigs likely for Sun AM push.
Isolated shower threat for eastern terminals this AM, then for all terminals in the aft/eve.
NE/E winds 10 kt or less today into tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Patchy MVFR cigs during AM push. Low prob for MVFR cigs for PM push, with isolated shra possible for eve push. MVFR cigs likely for Sun AM push.
NE winds of 7 to 10 kt, likely becoming E/SE in the afternoon with hybrid sea breeze development, except KLGA.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday...MVFR or lower in the AM, gradually improving to VFR.
Light E/NE winds.
Monday...MVFR AM, then VFR.
Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Based on recent buoy obs and guidance, dropped the SCA on the ocean waters with the expectation of waves prevailing under 5 ft for the rest of the day. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the waters will likely sustain sub SCA levels through the middle of next week. The exception will be the potential for marginal southerly SCA gusts in and around the entrance to NY Harbor with coastal jet formation Wed aft/eve.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Upton, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE