Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

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Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday June 20, 2019 1:10 AM EDT (05:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 7:34AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1038 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms late this evening, then a chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1038 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will remain stalled north of the waters through tonight. Low pressure tracking to the northwest will sweep a cold front through the area late Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure nudging southward from canada will dominate over the waters through the weekend. Small craft advisories may be required Thursday night and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 200451
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1251 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
A stalled front will remain across our area through tonight, then
begin to lift north during Thursday as an area of low pressure moves
toward the area. This low tracks just to our north late Thursday
afternoon and Thursday evening, with its cold front crossing our
region Thursday night. A secondary front arrives early Friday
morning, then high pressure arrives for Saturday night before
shifting offshore Sunday. A warm front lifts across the area Sunday
night into Monday. High pressure builds to our south through the
middle of next week, while a surface trough develops across the east
coast.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain will continue
across portions of eastern pennsylvania, southern new jersey,
and northern delmarva. Portions of these areas have picked up
between 3-5 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. Flooding and
flash flooding is ongoing, and will continue into daybreak.

The flash flood watch that is in effect has been expanded to
include all of southern new jersey and northern DELMARVA and
extended until 1 am Friday.

A stationary front has been enhanced by convection this
evening, and an analysis earlier this evening showed stronger
convergence occurring from berks to philadelphia counties in pa
then across camden gloucester and burlington counties in nj. The
convection was backbuilding for a time and produced a swath of
2 to 3.5 inches of rain and resulted in flash flooding, however
it is settling south and east now across a less urbanized area.

Some additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be
around through the overnight within a moisture laden
environment.

Warm rain processes and a more low-topped nature of the
convection is limiting the lightning, however some updrafts have
pulsed up some to result in a stronger core aloft for a time
and therefore more lightning. Overall, the thunder coverage
looks more isolated.

Will adjust hourly grids to account for ongoing convection as
well as temps dewpoints.

Given abundant low-level moisture across the region, will
continue to carry areas of fog.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
For the 630 pm update, made some adjustments to the pops with
the increase delayed some eastward. Also added in a mention of
heavy rain and gusty winds for the afternoon given the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Another day, more convection. Seems to be the theme of the week
around the mid-atlantic but thankfully this looks to be the
last day of unsettled weather as we head towards the end of the
week.

A low pressure system will track through the ohio valley and
into the mid-atlantic along the stalled boundary. Good surface
heating is expected to take place on Thursday and will help with
convective initiation as the majority of the forecast area
looks to remain in the warm sector. SPC has placed the majority
of our forecast area into a slight risk for severe weather.

There is decent shear (improved in the lower levels than is
present Wednesday) and CAPE >1000 j kg present and convection
should have no problem developing ahead of the approaching cold
front, although there may be more forward storm motion present
than there is Wednesday. Damaging winds looks to be the main
threat at this time but there is some indication we could see
supercells develop in which case we can't rule out the
possibility of rotating cells. May need to watch the track of
the weak surface low as the surface winds back back to the
southeast ahead of it resulting in enhanced low- level shear.

With pwats remaining around 2 inches, we will continue to have a
heavy rain threat and though the coverage may not be as
widespread, several areas have had a fair amount of rain this
week. Another flash flood watch may be needed for the day
Thursday, although given storm motions should be faster and some
uncertainty where the heaviest rain will fall we held off for
now.

Temperatures will rise into the 80s through much of the area
and even into the lower 90s across southern delaware and nearby
areas of eastern maryland. The limiting factor, especially
across our northern areas, will be the cloud cover as the day
starts off with fog low clouds across the region and just how
fast they clear will play a role in just how fast temperatures
can rise through the day.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
An area of low pressure will continue to move to our north and
strengthen as it does so. This will drag a cold front across the
area during the evening and overnight hours Thursday, with a
secondary front or surface trough moving across the area Friday
morning. This will keep enhanced precipitation chances through
Thursday night and Friday morning as several short
wave vorticity impulses will move across the area and combine
with some enhance moisture. There remains instability Thursday
night and Friday morning, so thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast, and with pw values around 1.5 inches, heavy rainfall
could continue to be a threat.

The fronts will continue to push to our south during the day
Friday, and showers will come to an end by midday. However, the
pressure gradient will tighten with low pressure to our
northeast and high pressure to our northwest. This will likely
lead to be quite gusty during the day Friday, possibly reaching
20-30 mph.

High pressure remains to our west for Friday night into
Saturday, briefly building over the area Saturday night. This
will keep dry conditions across the area through Friday night
and Saturday. Winds will likely gust again Saturday, but not as
gusty as Friday, generally 15-20 mph.

The high then shifts offshore Sunday, before a warm front
begins to approach Sunday night. Most of the day Sunday is
expected to be dry, however, this could begin to change by late
Sunday into Sunday night as some moisture and a couple of short
waves move across the area and may lead to a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.

High pressure builds into the northeast Monday as the upper
level trough lifts out of the region into the canadian
maritimes. A surface low will move just north of the great
lakes, drawing a warm front northward across the mid-atlantic
during the day. Thus, warmer highs than Sunday can be expected.

Precipitation looks rather limited at this point with the front,
but kept a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the grids
for now. A return to a more humid airmass will occur, though, as
pwats jump back to near 2 inches across the region.

The surface low continues to deepen as it moves into central
ontario and eastern quebec Monday night into Tuesday. As it does
so, a cold front will be pulled out of the ohio valley toward
the mid-atlantic. At this point, model consensus appears to
shunt the precipitation north of the area. Best chances for
showers and thunderstorms looks to be across the northwestern
portions of the CWA at this time. There will be some
instability, so there is the potential for thunderstorms, but
timing will help determine any potential severe risk. If the
front is slower to arrive, coming Tuesday afternoon, the threat
may be greater. Regardless, it looks to be a warm a humid day
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

Highs will be a little cooler Wednesday behind the front, with
most places topping out in the mid 80s. Some discrepancy remains
as to how quickly the trough exits the northeast, thus,
continued a slight chance for showers through the day Wednesday.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Some showers and isolated thunderstorms. Any
thunderstorms should end prior to about midnight. Much of this
should be near ilg to phl to the north. Ceilings varying from
vfr to MVFR and ifr with even localized lifr occurring. Overall,
the ceilings are anticipated to all settle into the ifr to lifr
range overnight. Visibility restrictions with local downpours,
and also some fog. Winds northeast or southeast around 5 knots,
to locally light and variable. Low confidence on the timing of
widespread ifr or lower ceilings.

Thursday... Ifr ceilings improve to MVFR during the morning,
then toVFR especially from the phl metro south and east by
early afternoon. Some showers possible early especially from
ilg, phl, pne, ttn north and west, then more widespread showers
and some thunderstorms from west to east during the afternoon.

Times of ifr lifr especially visibilities with the downpours.

Variable winds, becoming south to southwest near 10 knots.

Locally higher wind gusts possible with stronger afternoon
thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday night... VFR possible early, lowering to MVFR
overnight. Especially with any showers and thunderstorms.

Friday... MVFR conditions possible early, before improving to
vfr during the day. Chance of showers early. Winds shift to
northwest with gusts 20-25 knots.

Friday night-Saturday night...VFR conditions expected. Northwest
winds may gust 15-20 knots during the day Saturday.

Sunday-Sunday night... MVFR conditions expected. Chance of
showers Sunday night. West to southwest winds may gust around 15
knots during the day Sunday.

Monday...VFR with southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Gusts to 15
knots possible, especially along the shore.

Marine
Sub-small craft advisory conditions are expected to continue
through Thursday. Winds out of the south to southeast around 10
to 15 knots tonight, becoming southwest on Thursday. Seas around
1 to 3 feet.

Higher winds and waves in showers and thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday night-Friday night... Small craft advisory conditions
possible with guts 25-30 knots possible. Gale force winds
possible during the day Friday.

Saturday-Sunday night... Conditions expected to drop below
advisory levels by Saturday and remain below advisory levels
through Sunday night.

Monday... Sub SCA conditions expected with southwesterly winds
10 to 15 knots and seas 1 to 3 feet.

Rip currents...

a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents continues
through Thursday, with winds becoming more southerly and waves in
the surf zone about 3 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch through late tonight for paz054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106.

Nj... Flash flood watch through late tonight for njz001-007>010-
012>027.

De... Flash flood watch through late tonight for dez001.

Md... Flash flood watch through late tonight for mdz008-012.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Friday
for anz430-431-451>455.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 6 pm edt Friday for anz450.

Synopsis... Gorse robertson
near term... Gorse mps
short term... Gorse meola
long term... Davis robertson
aviation... Davis gorse robertson meola
marine... Davis robertson meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 12 mi137 min SSW 9.7 G 9.7 76°F 1005.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi71 min S 8 G 8.9 75°F 75°F1006.4 hPa (+0.0)75°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi59 min 77°F 77°F1005.7 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 19 mi35 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 75°F 76°F1005.1 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi59 min 76°F 76°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi53 min 76°F 1004.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi53 min SSW 9.9 G 12 76°F 1006.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi53 min SSW 8 G 9.9 76°F 77°F1005.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi59 min S 2.9 G 5.1 77°F 77°F1005.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi65 min SSW 12 G 14 78°F 81°F1006.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi53 min SW 5.1 G 6 76°F 1005.1 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi65 min SSW 7 G 11 77°F 1005 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi59 min S 6 G 8.9 77°F 78°F1005.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi54 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi59 min SSW 1.9 G 5.1 76°F 78°F1004.7 hPa
NCDV2 47 mi59 min SSW 7 G 9.9 76°F 82°F1004.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi35 min S 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 77°F1004.9 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi12 minS 510.00 miFair77°F73°F88%1006.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD18 mi31 minS 610.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1005.1 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD19 mi26 minS 410.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1005.8 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi17 minS 510.00 miFair79°F73°F85%1004.8 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS7S4CalmCalmS5S4S6S5SW5S8S7S7SW8SW6S9S7S7S6SE6SE6SE5S6S5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW5SW5SW4SW4SW6S8SW6SW7SW7SW6--SW6W6SW5S3SW3S3
2 days agoS8SW7SW6CalmCalmCalmW3W8CalmNW4CalmW3NW4W4S8S7S6NW8S5S5CalmS4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Avalon
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Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.81.21.61.92.12.11.91.71.41.10.80.60.60.70.91.11.31.41.31.10.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:41 AM EDT     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:41 PM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.10.30.70.910.90.60.1-0.4-0.8-1-1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.50.60.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.