Sunday, June24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:34PM Sunday June 24, 2018 12:25 PM EDT (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 4:23PMMoonset 2:26AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1032 Am Edt Sun Jun 24 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Am Edt Sun Jun 24 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure moving eastward across new england will send a cold front south across the waters this evening. High pressure will build from southern ontario across the eastern great lakes toward the mid- atlantic Monday into Tuesday, then move into the atlantic Tuesday night as a developing warm front approaches from the south. The warm front should move north into pennsylvania Wednesday as low pressure moves from the central plains to the great lakes. A cold front will follow Thursday as the low moves across the northeastern u.s. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday into Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 241353
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
953 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

A cold front will progress through the region late today. High
pressure over ontario builds into the region tomorrow and slowly
moves off the eastern seaboard. A warm front should arrive on
Wednesday followed by a slow moving trough which should be in our
region Thursday into Friday. High pressure builds in for next

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The fog has dissipated this morning except for the southern
portions of the nj coast. Beach cams and Sat pix still shows
some restrictions from about manasquan south. This fog is also
expected to dissipate.

For the morning update, I bumped up temps a degree or two across
the delmarva, and per short-term hi-res models, also adjusted
the speed and areal extent of the showers and thunderstorms.

Timing-wise, expect the best chance of thunderstorms in the
lehigh valley between 22z-01z, the i95 corridor between 23z-
02z, and at the beaches between 00-03z.

Previous discussion...

areas of fog through mid-morning may reduce visibility to 1 4
mile at times. Partly sunny skies will develop into the early
afternoon. Compared to yesterday's stout inversion due to a
maritime airmass, expect mixing today to elevate temperatures
into the 80s regionwide, with 70s in the southern poconos and
barrier islands. A mid-level trough and and attendant cold front
will approach from the west late in the day. The 00z href
indicates ml CAPE approaching 1000 j kg, and bulk shear also
increases up to 40 kt. While higher CAPE values are across the
southern part of the area, greater bulk shear is to the north.

The majority of the href members indicate two areas of activity:
north of i-78 and near the mason dixon line. The main concern
would be the potential for gusty winds and heavy downpours.

While greater dcape and 0-3 km lapse rates from the i-95
corridor east would make this the area most susceptible to gusty
winds, mid- level dry air and modest bulk shear may limit both
coverage and organization. With precipitable water values
decreasing closer to 1.5 inches this afternoon and progressive
cell movement, the threat for urban and poor drainage flooding
is low.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
The cold front is progged along the coast by 03z with thunderstorms
ending around this time. Showers are possible until midnight across
the southern poconos and coastal areas, before the mid-level trough
axis moves through. Despite partial clearing and the moist ground,
expect northwest winds to be sufficiently high to preclude areas of
fog across the region. Sheltered locations to the northwest of i-95
could experience patchy fog. Low temperatures at seasonal

Long term Monday through Saturday
Summary: high pressure will bring tranquil weather Monday and
Tuesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms again increase
Wednesday through Thursday as first a warm front and then a
trough approach our region. Tranquil, but hot, weather should
return by next weekend as a high builds into the region.

Monday and Tuesday... Canadian high pressure builds south. The
main impact with the cold front later today is that dew points
will be much lower than what we have seen lately. I don't have a
significant cooling trend with temperatures. Forecast
temperatures are higher than most guidance as the pattern
favors very large dew point depressions in the boundary layer.

Models typically underestimate the depth of the mixing layer in
these cases which could result in higher than forecast max
temperatures and lower than forecast dew points.

Wednesday and Thursday... A large low pressure system, tracking
across the great lakes region, will first bring a weak cold
front into the region late Wednesday, followed by a slow moving
trough Wednesday night into Thursday night. Some guidance backed
off on the extent of precipitation coverage, especially on
Wednesday. This makes sense given how much moisture advection
will need to take place before we get a nearly saturated layer
in the low or mid levels. Southerly low level return flow
should develop by late Wednesday, resulting in moisture and
warm air advection. The prime period for precipitation still
looks to be late Wednesday night into the day time hours on
Thursday, but also have a chance Wednesday and Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday... A high should start building in from the
southwest. The biggest differences from the models yesterday is
that many of the current runs depict the center of the high
stalling north of our region, leaving us with light on shore
flow through the weekend. If it develops this way, the marine
layer could make the difference between no excessive heat
headlines and excessive heat headlines for much of our area. I
am uncertain if it will actually develop this way, so I stayed
close to the previous forecast, with highs generally in the
lower to mid 90s (especially Saturday).

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.


widespread lifr conditions in low clouds and fog will rapidly
improve generally in the 12z-16z time frame toVFR at all taf
sites. Brief ceiling and visibility restrictions are possible
in afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Southwest winds 10-15
kt with higher gusts possible in thunderstorms. Forecaster
confidence is medium, except low regarding specific timing of
lifr toVFR transition at individual TAF sites.


vfr conditions. Southwest winds veering to northwest 10-15 kt.

High confidence.


Monday and Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected. Northwesterly
winds on Monday become light and variable Monday night into
Tuesday. High confidence.

Wednesday... MostlyVFR conditions are expected. There is a
chance for showers and thunderstorms to move in through the day,
especially at kabe and krdg. If this happens, MVFR conditions
will be possible. Increasing southerly winds possible through
the day. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday... A period of MVFR conditions is
possible both due to low clouds and showers and thunderstorms.

Southerly winds of 10 to 15 kt is also possible for at lease a
portion of this period. Low confidence.

Today... Southwest winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt possible.

Seas 2-4 ft. Fog early this morning will restrict vsby to 2 nm or
less, but should dissipate by this afternoon. Sub-sca conditions.

Tonight... Southwest winds around 10 kt gradually becoming northwest
10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2-4 ft. Sub-
sca conditions.


Monday and Tuesday... Winds and seas should stay below sca

Wednesday and Thursday... SCA conditions, for both winds and
seas, are likely on the atlantic coastal waters. SCA conditions,
mainly for winds are possible on the delaware bay. Southerly
winds increase ahead of the next low pressure system. Seas
should subsequently increase as well.

Rip currents...

southwest winds 10-20 mph, wave heights 2-4 feet, and a dominant
southeasterly swell period 6-7 seconds yields a low risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents for the de and nj beaches.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Kruzdlo lf
short term... Lf
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson lf
marine... Johnson lf

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 12 mi45 min Calm G 1.9 81°F 1012.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi85 min S 6 G 6 76°F 75°F1012.3 hPa (+0.0)73°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi55 min 85°F 80°F1012.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 19 mi45 min S 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 1011.7 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi55 min 76°F 76°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi55 min 83°F 1010.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi115 min SE 1.9 73°F 1011 hPa67°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi55 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 82°F 1012.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi55 min NNW 4.1 G 6 85°F 78°F1011.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi55 min SW 6 G 7 78°F 75°F1011.6 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi55 min Calm G 4.1 83°F 1011 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi55 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 82°F1012.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi55 min Calm G 1.9 83°F 1010.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi55 min S 5.1 G 5.1 79°F 76°F1011.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi61 min WSW 1.9 G 6 83°F 77°F1010.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi61 min N 1.9 G 1.9
NCDV2 47 mi55 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 81°F 78°F1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi35 minWSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F66°F52%1012.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD18 mi50 minSSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F69°F66%1011.5 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD19 mi50 minVar 310.00 miFair88°F66°F49%1011.5 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi31 minS 410.00 miFair85°F73°F68%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmSW7SW8S7W4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmW4SW4W5W5
1 day agoE8
2 days agoNE8NE7N6NE8N8N4E6E4E3E3SE4E3CalmCalmSE3CalmE3CalmE5E8E10

Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Sun -- 01:49 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:08 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:40 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sun -- 03:01 AM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:46 AM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:43 PM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:18 PM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.