Monday, September24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:58PM Monday September 24, 2018 1:29 AM EDT (05:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:10PMMoonset 5:13AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1035 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A frontal boundary will stall south of the waters through Monday. The front will return northward as a warm front Tuesday. A cold front will then approach the waters from the ohio valley Wednesday, and may stall near or south of the waters Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240106
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
906 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

A frontal boundary will remain stalled to our south through
Monday as high pressure over ontario builds southeast into new
england. As the high pressure shifts offshore on Tuesday, the
frontal boundary will return north across our area as a warm
front. A fairly strong cold front is forecast to cross the area
late on Wednesday, followed by high pressure on Thursday.

Another cold front may reach the area around Friday, followed
again by high pressure for next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
730 pm update... Rain continues to affect areas mainly south of a
chester pa to trenton nj line. Expect this to continue this
evening but overnight the northern edge of the rain should be
pushed a little farther south toward the mason dixon line as an
expansive high pressure system continues to nose south and east.

The rain should also become lighter where it does continue. By
morning, think that areas around the greater philadelphia area
will be seeing mainly just some patchy drizzle and perhaps some
intermittent light rain. Accordingly, a few minor adjustments
were made to the grids including adding the mention of patchy
drizzle overnight into early Monday morning.

Previous discussion: a crummy day for many areas will continue
to be crummy this evening and overnight, while others remain
dry. Our area remains in between high pressure extending across
south eastern canada and into new england, and a stalled out
frontal boundary to our south. The high has built in far enough
south into a portion of northeast pennsylvania and northern new
jersey to keep those areas dry, and will remain dry through the
night. However, farther south there remains moisture overriding
the boundary to our south due to the southwest to west flow
aloft, combining a couple of short wave vorticity impulses
moving across the area in the southwest to westerly flow. This
will likely keep light rain in the forecast for portions of
southeast pennsylvania, central and southern new jersey,
delaware, and maryland for much of the night. The persistent
rain may become more showery in nature and scattered out later
this evening and overnight as the strongest of the vorticity
impulses pass to our east.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
On Monday, the high pressure to our north will continue to
build into new england, with our area remaining on the far
southern edge, and north of the frontal boundary well to our
south. Portions of southeastern pennsylvania, southern new
jersey, delaware, and maryland will continue to have enhanced
moisture and lift as they will be in a bit of a convergence zone
between the high and front to our south. This will keep an
enhanced chance of rain through the day again on Monday. Any
rainfall amounts are expected to be less than Sunday with
generally less than a quarter of an inch through the daytime
hours. For most of northeastern pennsylvania and northern new
jersey, these areas will likely not see any rainfall during the
day. Temperatures will end up a couple of degrees warmer than
Sunday. Would not be surprised to see some Sun in some locations
during the day, and if the Sun does come out, temperature may
warm up even a couple of degrees more for some spots.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
The long term looks to be a period of rather active weather, at
least for the first few days. An amplifying trof-ridge pattern
in the first part of the week will be followed by a short-wave
and associated cold front passage mid week. Another short-wave
trof moves by late in the week, and then a zonal jet streak sets
up roughly along the u.S. Canada border for next weekend.

Temperatures will be above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday, then
dropping close to normal for the rest of the week.

High pressure will be in place over new england Monday night,
but it will shift offshore on Tuesday. This will allow a warm
front to move north across the mid-atlantic region on Tuesday.

Widespread rain and fog will precede the front Monday night but
conditions are expected to improve some during the day on
Tuesday as the front moves through.

On Wednesday a fairly strong cold front will approach from the
west and move through the area late in the day or in the
evening. The front will be preceded by showers and
thunderstorms, some of which may be severe or heavy rain
producers. Pwats are forecast to be around 2 inches by wed
afternoon. A possible complicating factor is the disturbance now
sw of bermuda, which is forecast to approach the east coast by
wed and could inject more tropical moisture ahead of the cold

After Wednesday the forecast becomes a bit less clear as the
cold front pushes to our south and eventually dissipates.

However there is some indication of a low pressure wave moving
northeast along the front sometime Thursday or Thursday night.

This the forecast maintains chances of rain through that time,
with somewhat higher pops south of phl.

Another frontal system, associated with a strong shortwv trof
aloft, is forecast to move through on Friday, follow by high
pressure and fair weather for next weekend.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... SubVFR conditions with rain and drizzle will affect
most sites tonight. Expect the most significant restrictions to
be for kilg to kphl as well as kacy and kmiv where ifr is
likely. Remaining sites should be mainly MVFR to lowVFR. The
rain should become lighter and more intermittent overnight with
some areas of patchy drizzle. Winds will be mainly E NE or light
and variable at speeds of 5 to 8 knots or less.

Monday... Expect a general improvement in CIGS with most sites
becomingVFR by the afternoon. The exceptions will be
kilg kacy kmiv where MVFR should persist through the day. Winds
increase out of the E NE to around 10 knots for most sites with
a few higher gusts to 20 knots. However at kacy, expect winds
around 15 with gusts up to 25-30 knots by late day.


Monday night... Generally MVFR with localized ifr conditions are
possible Monday night. Easterly winds 10 to 15 kt with higher
gusts possible. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday... Starting MVFR or locally ifr, but conditions should
gradually improve through the day. Chance for showers and even a few
thunderstorms through the day. Winds shifting to southeasterly and
decreasing through the day. Low confidence.

Tuesday night... VFR conditions possible in the evening, but fog
and or stratus may develop overnight. Light and variable winds. Low

Wednesday and Wednesday night... MostlyVFR conditions are expected.

However, lower conditions are possible with a period of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Once the cold front passes,
expect a shift to northerly winds and improving conditions. Moderate

Thursday and Friday... MostlyVFR conditions, though there is a
chance for showers which could briefly lower conditions. Low

A small craft advisory remains for the atlantic coastal waters as
well as delaware bay. The advisory will start for the southern
waters adjacent to delaware with the afternoon forecast as winds and
seas will continue to build over the next couple of hours. It starts
at midnight for the southern new jersey coastal waters, and at 4 am
for the northern new jersey coastal waters and delaware bay. The
advisory will continue through the day Monday as winds will gust 25-
30 knots at times and seas continue to build to 6-8 feet on the
atlantic coastal waters.


Monday night and Tuesday... SCA conditions for both gusty easterly
winds and elevated seas are expected to continue through Monday
night. Winds should diminish south to north from Monday night into
Tuesday morning, but seas will remain somewhat high on the ocean.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Winds are expected to remain below sca
criteria. However, elevated seas on the ocean waters may continue
through at least Wednesday night. An abrupt wind shift to northerly
winds is expected Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday... Seas should diminish below SCA level on
Thursday and remain so on Friday.

Rip currents...

9 pm update... A high rip current risk is now in effect for
Monday due to the strong onshore flow. Tides will be enhanced by
the full moon which will also help enhance the rip current

Tides coastal flooding
We continue to expect at least some spotty minor tidal flooding
early in the new week along the coasts of delaware and new
jersey, along delaware bay, and on the lower delaware river.

While water levels will get high along the upper eastern shore
of chesapeake bay, no flooding is anticipated for that area at
this time.

An increasing onshore flow is expected for Monday and the
astronomical tides will be high due to the full harvest moon.

The onshore flow is forecast to continue through Monday night before
veering to the south on Tuesday, from south to north.

The minor flooding potential is focused on the high tide from Monday
evening into Monday night, and the high tide on Tuesday morning into
early Tuesday afternoon. The astronomical tide heights for both are
similar. It will take a positive tide departure of about 1.0 to 1.5
feet to result in spotty minor flooding.

The big question regarding the flood potential is whether or not it
will be widespread and impactful enough to need an advisory. We
will continue to monitor the trends in the observed water levels and
in the forecast models. The etss output continues to indicate that
the highest water levels will be on Monday evening, while the estofs
paints more of a problem for Tuesday morning.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk from 6 am edt Monday through Monday
evening for njz014-024>026.

De... High rip current risk from 6 am edt Monday through Monday
evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz452-453.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 6 am edt Tuesday for

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz454-455.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 2 am edt Tuesday for

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Fitzsimmons robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Amc
aviation... Amc fitzsimmons robertson
marine... Amc fitzsimmons robertson
tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 12 mi29 min ENE 14 G 18 66°F 74°F1022.6 hPa (+0.7)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi29 min NE 12 G 14 64°F 72°F1024.7 hPa (+0.3)64°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi41 min 65°F 74°F1024.4 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi41 min 64°F 64°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi119 min NNE 1.9 57°F 1024 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi41 min 64°F 1023.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi41 min NE 14 G 17 64°F 1024 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi41 min NE 8 G 13 65°F 76°F1023 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi41 min ENE 4.1 G 6 62°F 71°F1024.7 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi41 min NNE 8 G 11 61°F 1024.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi41 min NNE 11 G 19 65°F 72°F1023.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi41 min NNE 8.9 G 11 61°F 1024.6 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi47 min NNE 4.1 G 7 63°F 72°F1024.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi47 min ENE 8.9 G 12
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi41 min ENE 6 G 8.9 62°F 75°F1024.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi29 min NE 16 G 19 67°F 76°F1021.7 hPa (+0.4)
NCDV2 47 mi41 min NNE 1 G 2.9 64°F 75°F1022.9 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi3.7 hrsNE 75.00 miRain63°F62°F100%1024.7 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi35 minN 66.00 miFog/Mist66°F62°F87%1024.3 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--------------N4NE6E4E4E4NE7NE7NE8NE11E6E8E7E9E8NE7E10NE7
1 day ago--------------NW5CalmCalmN5N4N8N7N5N8N8NE9N9N7N9NE8NE7N5
2 days ago--------------SE4CalmCalmSE8S5SW6S5SW6--S9S9S7S6S5S10S8S7

Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.