Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tilghman Island, MD
May 13, 2024 4:51 PM EDT (20:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 9:35 AM Moonset 12:10 AM |
ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 435 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
Rest of this afternoon - S winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Numerous showers.
Tue night - SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 435 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will push southeast of the waters tonight before the next low pressure system approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional waves of low pressure and quick moving fronts will pass through the region Friday into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday through Friday.
high pressure will push southeast of the waters tonight before the next low pressure system approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional waves of low pressure and quick moving fronts will pass through the region Friday into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday through Friday.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 131949 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 349 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure slowly moves offshore tonight into Tuesday.
Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday and continues through the middle of the week with a slow moving low pressure system.
After brief ridging towards the end of the week, more unsettled weather returns for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weak shortwave energy will pass through the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey this evening. High pressure centered off the Delmarva Peninsula and Mid-Atlantic coast will slowly build out to sea tonight through Tuesday. A warm front will develop out ahead of an area of low pressure organizing and developing over the Midwest, and that warm front will lift into the region late in the day Tuesday.
In terms of sensible weather, there will be some clouds, and perhaps a brief shower or two passing through the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey through sunset. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny throughout.
Skies will be partly cloudy for at least the first half of the night. Clouds will then increase and thicken after midnight and into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday as a warm front develops out ahead of the low over the Midwest and lifts towards the East Coast. Cannot rule out some patchy fog in the pre-dawn hours as well.
Low pressure will lift into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and the warm front lifts into the region on Tuesday. This system will also tap into moisture over the Gulf Coast states, and clouds and that moisture will spread into the region throughout the day. Although scattered showers are possible throughout the day, the bulk of the activity will hold off until closer to sunset, and mainly for the far western zones.
Lows tonight will drop into the 50s, and then highs on Tuesday will be warmer than today, topping off in the mid to upper 70s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Widespread showers return to the region Tuesday night as height falls and PVA will amplify lift across the forecast area.
Moisture coming from the Appalachians will move through the region and provide a steady dose of showers late Tuesday evening through Wednesday. QPF forecast remains largely unchanged with most locations forecast to see around 0.75 inches of rain from Tuesday evening through Wednesday (higher totals of 1-1.25 inches possible closer to the coast) with the bulk coming in the early Wednesday-Wednesday morning time frame.
CAPE still looks relatively weak so while a few rumbles of thunder may occur, its a low (<15%) chance.
As the low pressure system starts moving out of the region later on Wednesday, lingering showers should continue into the afternoon before drier air starts moving into the area. However the low doesn't move out quickly so we'll have the potential to see showers well into the evening.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Heading towards the end of the week, Thursday should be a mostly quiet day as an upper level ridge starts to build into the region. Again there are still strong timing differences between the EC ensembles and the GFS ensembles with respect to the speed of the systems. The GFS and its ensembles are more progressive and leads to a dry day on Thursday while the EC and its ensembles are slight slower which would allow for isolated showers to develop Thursday afternoon.
The brief break in rainfall ends heading into the weekend as the next system starts to move into over the weekend. Guidance still shows too much uncertainty to feel confident in details at this point but the general consensus is that a northern stream upper level trough will strengthen and bring showers to the region sometime over the weekend with the most likely timing Friday night into Saturday. If the pattern were to be more progressive, high pressure may return on Monday but that remains highly uncertain.
Temps in the extended from Thursday onwards should be fairly seasonable in the mid to upper 70s for highs and lows in the upper 50s to near 60 each night.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...VFR. Some patchy fog possible from 09Z to 12Z, but confidence low on it occurring at any given terminal. Will not include fog in the 18Z TAF. SW winds around 10 kt this evening, diminishing to around 5 kt. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday...VFR most of the day, then MVFR CIGs after 21Z. Scattered SHRA may result in brief sub-VFR VSBYs as well. S winds 5 to 10 kt.
Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night through Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions expected with occasional showers.
Thursday/Friday...No significant weather expected.
Friday night/Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances for showers increasing.
MARINE
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for tonight and Tuesday. For northern New Jersey ocean waters (ANZ450-451), S winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts as high as 25 kt through this evening, though 25 kt gusts will not be widespread enough nor frequent enough to warrant a SCA at this time. Otherwise, S winds will will range from 10 to 15 kt. Winds increase for the northern New Jersey ocean waters again Tuesday afternoon, but winds look to remain just below SCA criteria. Seas will average 3 to 4 feet.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Conditions expected to be largely sub-SCA but winds may approach 25 knots and seas 5 feet, particularly later on Wednesday.
Wednesday night through Thursday night...SCA conditions anticipated (40-50%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Significant wave heights approach 7 feet early Thursday. Showers Wed night then mostly fair Thursday.
Friday/Saturday...Lingering 5 foot seas possible Friday but otherwise sub-SCA conditions expected.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 349 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure slowly moves offshore tonight into Tuesday.
Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday and continues through the middle of the week with a slow moving low pressure system.
After brief ridging towards the end of the week, more unsettled weather returns for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weak shortwave energy will pass through the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey this evening. High pressure centered off the Delmarva Peninsula and Mid-Atlantic coast will slowly build out to sea tonight through Tuesday. A warm front will develop out ahead of an area of low pressure organizing and developing over the Midwest, and that warm front will lift into the region late in the day Tuesday.
In terms of sensible weather, there will be some clouds, and perhaps a brief shower or two passing through the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey through sunset. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny throughout.
Skies will be partly cloudy for at least the first half of the night. Clouds will then increase and thicken after midnight and into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday as a warm front develops out ahead of the low over the Midwest and lifts towards the East Coast. Cannot rule out some patchy fog in the pre-dawn hours as well.
Low pressure will lift into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and the warm front lifts into the region on Tuesday. This system will also tap into moisture over the Gulf Coast states, and clouds and that moisture will spread into the region throughout the day. Although scattered showers are possible throughout the day, the bulk of the activity will hold off until closer to sunset, and mainly for the far western zones.
Lows tonight will drop into the 50s, and then highs on Tuesday will be warmer than today, topping off in the mid to upper 70s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Widespread showers return to the region Tuesday night as height falls and PVA will amplify lift across the forecast area.
Moisture coming from the Appalachians will move through the region and provide a steady dose of showers late Tuesday evening through Wednesday. QPF forecast remains largely unchanged with most locations forecast to see around 0.75 inches of rain from Tuesday evening through Wednesday (higher totals of 1-1.25 inches possible closer to the coast) with the bulk coming in the early Wednesday-Wednesday morning time frame.
CAPE still looks relatively weak so while a few rumbles of thunder may occur, its a low (<15%) chance.
As the low pressure system starts moving out of the region later on Wednesday, lingering showers should continue into the afternoon before drier air starts moving into the area. However the low doesn't move out quickly so we'll have the potential to see showers well into the evening.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Heading towards the end of the week, Thursday should be a mostly quiet day as an upper level ridge starts to build into the region. Again there are still strong timing differences between the EC ensembles and the GFS ensembles with respect to the speed of the systems. The GFS and its ensembles are more progressive and leads to a dry day on Thursday while the EC and its ensembles are slight slower which would allow for isolated showers to develop Thursday afternoon.
The brief break in rainfall ends heading into the weekend as the next system starts to move into over the weekend. Guidance still shows too much uncertainty to feel confident in details at this point but the general consensus is that a northern stream upper level trough will strengthen and bring showers to the region sometime over the weekend with the most likely timing Friday night into Saturday. If the pattern were to be more progressive, high pressure may return on Monday but that remains highly uncertain.
Temps in the extended from Thursday onwards should be fairly seasonable in the mid to upper 70s for highs and lows in the upper 50s to near 60 each night.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...VFR. Some patchy fog possible from 09Z to 12Z, but confidence low on it occurring at any given terminal. Will not include fog in the 18Z TAF. SW winds around 10 kt this evening, diminishing to around 5 kt. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday...VFR most of the day, then MVFR CIGs after 21Z. Scattered SHRA may result in brief sub-VFR VSBYs as well. S winds 5 to 10 kt.
Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night through Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions expected with occasional showers.
Thursday/Friday...No significant weather expected.
Friday night/Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances for showers increasing.
MARINE
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for tonight and Tuesday. For northern New Jersey ocean waters (ANZ450-451), S winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts as high as 25 kt through this evening, though 25 kt gusts will not be widespread enough nor frequent enough to warrant a SCA at this time. Otherwise, S winds will will range from 10 to 15 kt. Winds increase for the northern New Jersey ocean waters again Tuesday afternoon, but winds look to remain just below SCA criteria. Seas will average 3 to 4 feet.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Conditions expected to be largely sub-SCA but winds may approach 25 knots and seas 5 feet, particularly later on Wednesday.
Wednesday night through Thursday night...SCA conditions anticipated (40-50%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Significant wave heights approach 7 feet early Thursday. Showers Wed night then mostly fair Thursday.
Friday/Saturday...Lingering 5 foot seas possible Friday but otherwise sub-SCA conditions expected.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD | 15 sm | 66 min | SW 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 52°F | 50% | 30.04 | |
| KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD | 19 sm | 26 min | S 06G13 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 54°F | 56% | 30.04 |
Avalon
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:10 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:55 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:33 AM EDT 1.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:08 PM EDT 0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:00 PM EDT 1.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:10 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:55 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:33 AM EDT 1.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:08 PM EDT 0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:00 PM EDT 1.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:55 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 03:34 AM EDT -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT 0.91 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 01:10 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:05 PM EDT 0.53 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:55 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 03:34 AM EDT -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT 0.91 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 01:10 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:05 PM EDT 0.53 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| -0 |
| 2 am |
| -0.3 |
| 3 am |
| -0.4 |
| 4 am |
| -0.4 |
| 5 am |
| -0.3 |
| 6 am |
| -0 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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