Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dunkirk, MD
May 14, 2024 4:23 PM EDT (20:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 10:41 AM Moonset 12:48 AM |
ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 340 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Wednesday - .
Rest of this afternoon - S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed - E winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Patchy fog.
Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 335 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - A warm front lifts north of the waters today, with winds remaining moderate to fresh from the south-southeast through tonight. Low pressure will meander from the ohio valley to the carolina coast over the next couple days, dragging a weakening cold front toward the local waters by Wednesday night. Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue to be possible through midweek. The cold front will become stationary before dissipating over south florida late this week.
Gulf stream hazards - South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, may 14th.
41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, may 14th.
41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KLWX 141907 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 307 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Slow moving low pressure will gradually push across the Mid-Atlantic region today through Wednesday, bringing increased chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as below normal temperatures. Drier conditions return briefly Thursday before another storm system brings the threat for showers and storms Friday into the weekend. Weak high pressure tries to build back over the area Monday with additional shower and thunderstorm chances heading into the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
An area of low pressure continues to progress northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon, with a shield of precipitation extending into the Mid-Atlantic region. The earlier lull in precipitation will begin to fill in with light to moderate rainfall moving in from the Carolinas. This is a result of a secondary low pressure off the Carolina coast that will continue to meander further north today and into Wednesday.
Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm across the central and southern portions of the area this afternoon and evening, given some limited instability nearby. QPF totals have been increased along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge and further east along the I-95 corridor later today and into the overnight hours. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2" will be possible across those areas through midday Wednesday, with lesser amounts further west. Would not be shocked if there are some localized higher amounts somewhere in the aforementioned area. Given these amounts coupled with antecedent conditions, there may be an isolated threat for flooding but it does not look to be widespread.
Highs today will top out in the upper 60s to near 70 for most areas, with low 60s more common in the mountains. Increased cloud coverage has certainly dampened the chances for warmer temperatures today.
Overnight lows will drop down into the 50s with some patchy fog possible, especially across areas that receive a lull in the precipitation.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The low pressure off the Carolinas will gradually move further offshore, with the incoming low from the west building into the area. QPF amounts will be higher in the northeast where the main precip axis will have moved towards. Given the stabilizing atmosphere tomorrow, expect light to moderate rain to move through rather than convective, heavier elements. Temperatures likely remain in the 60s for most of the area. Rain should gradually wind down Wednesday night as the upper level trough axis passes, although low clouds likely stick around.
Thursday and Thursday night should feature a relative break in the action as a narrow upper ridge moves overhead and surface high pressure wedges in from the north. However, the now-stacked low off the coast won't be too far away, and it's possible clouds and a few showers continue to rotate westward into the area. A few showers could also form along the Alleghenies due to upslope flow. High temperatures will likely rebound into the 70s, but this will be contingent on cloud cover.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A broad mid-level trough over the Central Plains Friday moves across the TN Valley toward the Southeast/Carolina coast over the weekend. There's some model discrepancies regarding the exact intensity and placement of the mid-level trough, and its associated surface low. Most of the guidance tracks these features just south of the area, but exactly how far is going to determine whether higher rain chances are realized over parts of the area this weekend.
Friday looks to start off dry as weak mid-level ridging overhead moves east into the Atlantic. A surface high over New England will cause keeps winds southeast to east through the weekend, though where the surface low tracks will also impact how wind direction changes over the area. By Sunday winds turn more northeast, then north to northwest as a weak cold front crosses the area.
As the forecast stands, the highest rain chances look to be late Friday night through Saturday evening as the higher PWATs and forcing aloft are maximized over the area, and mostly along and east of the Blue Ridge. Coverage of showers Sunday looks to be less as the surface low moves into the Atlantic and backing winds bring in drier air from the north. High pressure builds in Monday, possibly bringing another day or two of mostly dry conditions.
High temperatures Friday reach their seasonal values, in the mid to upper 70s, then drop to the upper 60s to low 70s Saturday due to extensive cloud cover and precip. Temperatures rebound through the start of next week, eventually reaching the low 80s. Overnight lows settle in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Rain showers are continuing to overspread the area this afternoon for the terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings will be popular cross the terminals this afternoon through Wednesday with the shield of precipitation moving in. An isolated thunderstorm is possible at CHO and MRB this afternoon into tonight, but not a high enough chance to include in the TAF. South to southeast winds 5-10 kt expected through tonight.
Easterly winds will build in Wednesday with low ceilings continuing.
Some light ceiling improvements may happen later in the day on Wednesday but showers will continue through Wednesday evening before tapering off.
There may be a break in activity on Thursday, but a few showers and low clouds may stick around with low pressure remaining stationary off the coast.
VFR and dry conditions to start Friday, then showers and possibly some thunderstorms move into the area during the afternoon to evening. Sub-VFR conditions are likely at some point Friday night into Saturday night. At least scattered showers look to continue for much of the day Saturday. However, there is still a lot of model discrepancy regarding the location of a surface low to our south. If it remains close to the area, that will bring us more rain and longer period of sub-VFR conditions.
MARINE
South-southeast winds increase once again late this afternoon and evening, with another SCA in effect for the Chesapeake and lower Potomac. Winds could gust slightly higher to around 24-28 knots in the open waters of the bay during this time. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into tonight.
SCAs are likely through the day on Wednesday and into Thursday for most of the waters with low pressure nearby increasing the pressure gradient locally. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm will continue to be possible through Wednesday night before tapering off.
Sub-SCA conditions could prevail for much of the day Friday into Saturday. During this time winds are primarily east to southeast at 5-10 knots. An area of low pressure approaches from the west late Friday into the weekend, bringing another round of widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Depending on how close the low pressure gets to the local waters, there could be a brief period of SCA winds Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is most likely to occur in the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach. Still, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding exactly where the surface low will track.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Minor coastal flooding remains possible at high tide at sensitive locations through at least Wednesday morning as south to southeast winds continue. While tide levels have remained steady, or even dropped slightly over the past 12-18 hours there is still enough of an anomaly for Annapolis, Straits Point, and DC Waterfront to approach or just reach minor flood stage. The increase in southerly winds for tonight is likely to result in more abundant coastal flooding, with Coastal Flood Advisories needed for several locations. Coastal flood concerns diminish Wednesday night into Thursday as northerly winds push water down the bay.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>532- 539-540.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ533-534- 537-541-543.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 307 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Slow moving low pressure will gradually push across the Mid-Atlantic region today through Wednesday, bringing increased chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as below normal temperatures. Drier conditions return briefly Thursday before another storm system brings the threat for showers and storms Friday into the weekend. Weak high pressure tries to build back over the area Monday with additional shower and thunderstorm chances heading into the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
An area of low pressure continues to progress northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon, with a shield of precipitation extending into the Mid-Atlantic region. The earlier lull in precipitation will begin to fill in with light to moderate rainfall moving in from the Carolinas. This is a result of a secondary low pressure off the Carolina coast that will continue to meander further north today and into Wednesday.
Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm across the central and southern portions of the area this afternoon and evening, given some limited instability nearby. QPF totals have been increased along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge and further east along the I-95 corridor later today and into the overnight hours. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2" will be possible across those areas through midday Wednesday, with lesser amounts further west. Would not be shocked if there are some localized higher amounts somewhere in the aforementioned area. Given these amounts coupled with antecedent conditions, there may be an isolated threat for flooding but it does not look to be widespread.
Highs today will top out in the upper 60s to near 70 for most areas, with low 60s more common in the mountains. Increased cloud coverage has certainly dampened the chances for warmer temperatures today.
Overnight lows will drop down into the 50s with some patchy fog possible, especially across areas that receive a lull in the precipitation.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The low pressure off the Carolinas will gradually move further offshore, with the incoming low from the west building into the area. QPF amounts will be higher in the northeast where the main precip axis will have moved towards. Given the stabilizing atmosphere tomorrow, expect light to moderate rain to move through rather than convective, heavier elements. Temperatures likely remain in the 60s for most of the area. Rain should gradually wind down Wednesday night as the upper level trough axis passes, although low clouds likely stick around.
Thursday and Thursday night should feature a relative break in the action as a narrow upper ridge moves overhead and surface high pressure wedges in from the north. However, the now-stacked low off the coast won't be too far away, and it's possible clouds and a few showers continue to rotate westward into the area. A few showers could also form along the Alleghenies due to upslope flow. High temperatures will likely rebound into the 70s, but this will be contingent on cloud cover.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A broad mid-level trough over the Central Plains Friday moves across the TN Valley toward the Southeast/Carolina coast over the weekend. There's some model discrepancies regarding the exact intensity and placement of the mid-level trough, and its associated surface low. Most of the guidance tracks these features just south of the area, but exactly how far is going to determine whether higher rain chances are realized over parts of the area this weekend.
Friday looks to start off dry as weak mid-level ridging overhead moves east into the Atlantic. A surface high over New England will cause keeps winds southeast to east through the weekend, though where the surface low tracks will also impact how wind direction changes over the area. By Sunday winds turn more northeast, then north to northwest as a weak cold front crosses the area.
As the forecast stands, the highest rain chances look to be late Friday night through Saturday evening as the higher PWATs and forcing aloft are maximized over the area, and mostly along and east of the Blue Ridge. Coverage of showers Sunday looks to be less as the surface low moves into the Atlantic and backing winds bring in drier air from the north. High pressure builds in Monday, possibly bringing another day or two of mostly dry conditions.
High temperatures Friday reach their seasonal values, in the mid to upper 70s, then drop to the upper 60s to low 70s Saturday due to extensive cloud cover and precip. Temperatures rebound through the start of next week, eventually reaching the low 80s. Overnight lows settle in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Rain showers are continuing to overspread the area this afternoon for the terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings will be popular cross the terminals this afternoon through Wednesday with the shield of precipitation moving in. An isolated thunderstorm is possible at CHO and MRB this afternoon into tonight, but not a high enough chance to include in the TAF. South to southeast winds 5-10 kt expected through tonight.
Easterly winds will build in Wednesday with low ceilings continuing.
Some light ceiling improvements may happen later in the day on Wednesday but showers will continue through Wednesday evening before tapering off.
There may be a break in activity on Thursday, but a few showers and low clouds may stick around with low pressure remaining stationary off the coast.
VFR and dry conditions to start Friday, then showers and possibly some thunderstorms move into the area during the afternoon to evening. Sub-VFR conditions are likely at some point Friday night into Saturday night. At least scattered showers look to continue for much of the day Saturday. However, there is still a lot of model discrepancy regarding the location of a surface low to our south. If it remains close to the area, that will bring us more rain and longer period of sub-VFR conditions.
MARINE
South-southeast winds increase once again late this afternoon and evening, with another SCA in effect for the Chesapeake and lower Potomac. Winds could gust slightly higher to around 24-28 knots in the open waters of the bay during this time. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into tonight.
SCAs are likely through the day on Wednesday and into Thursday for most of the waters with low pressure nearby increasing the pressure gradient locally. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm will continue to be possible through Wednesday night before tapering off.
Sub-SCA conditions could prevail for much of the day Friday into Saturday. During this time winds are primarily east to southeast at 5-10 knots. An area of low pressure approaches from the west late Friday into the weekend, bringing another round of widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Depending on how close the low pressure gets to the local waters, there could be a brief period of SCA winds Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is most likely to occur in the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach. Still, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding exactly where the surface low will track.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Minor coastal flooding remains possible at high tide at sensitive locations through at least Wednesday morning as south to southeast winds continue. While tide levels have remained steady, or even dropped slightly over the past 12-18 hours there is still enough of an anomaly for Annapolis, Straits Point, and DC Waterfront to approach or just reach minor flood stage. The increase in southerly winds for tonight is likely to result in more abundant coastal flooding, with Coastal Flood Advisories needed for several locations. Coastal flood concerns diminish Wednesday night into Thursday as northerly winds push water down the bay.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>532- 539-540.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ533-534- 537-541-543.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD | 11 sm | 14 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 63°F | 88% | 29.90 | |
| KDCA RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL,VA | 20 sm | 31 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.92 |
| KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD | 22 sm | 18 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.93 |
Nottingham
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:27 AM EDT 1.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:46 AM EDT 3.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:40 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:18 PM EDT 1.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:14 PM EDT 2.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:27 AM EDT 1.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:46 AM EDT 3.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:40 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:18 PM EDT 1.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:14 PM EDT 2.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Nottingham, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 2.5 |
| 8 am |
| 3.1 |
| 9 am |
| 3.4 |
| 10 am |
| 3.5 |
| 11 am |
| 3.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 3 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.8 |
Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290° true
Ebb direction 110° true
Tue -- 01:46 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:07 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:29 AM EDT 0.38 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:58 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 12:28 PM EDT -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:07 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:45 PM EDT 0.29 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:11 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for MapFlood direction 290° true
Ebb direction 110° true
Tue -- 01:46 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:07 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:29 AM EDT 0.38 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:58 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 12:28 PM EDT -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:07 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:45 PM EDT 0.29 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:11 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.2 |
| 1 am |
| -0.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0 |
| 10 am |
| -0.2 |
| 11 am |
| -0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| -0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.1 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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