Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dunkirk, MD
April 26, 2024 6:07 PM EDT (22:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:13 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 10:07 PM Moonset 6:27 AM |
ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 448 Pm Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Saturday - .
Rest of this afternoon - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 448 Pm Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
surface high pressure moves south along the eastern appalachians through Saturday leading to cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover, and showers mainly west of the waters. A warm front lifts through the area Sunday bringing a significant warm up heading into early next week. Additional small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters Saturday afternoon. Extensions may be needed due to southerly channeling Sunday into early next week. The next substantial front to cross the waters looks to arrive by Tuesday bringing renewed chances for showers and Thunderstorms.
surface high pressure moves south along the eastern appalachians through Saturday leading to cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover, and showers mainly west of the waters. A warm front lifts through the area Sunday bringing a significant warm up heading into early next week. Additional small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters Saturday afternoon. Extensions may be needed due to southerly channeling Sunday into early next week. The next substantial front to cross the waters looks to arrive by Tuesday bringing renewed chances for showers and Thunderstorms.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KLWX 261932 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 332 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure remains situated along the east coast through Saturday. A warm front will lift north of the area by Sunday. A series of fronts will cross the area during the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Upper level ridging will continue building from the west through tonight. A surface high over southern New England begins to slide south into the western Atlantic Ocean. Dry conditions will likely continue through this evening. However, onshore flow continues to result in clouds banked against the central Appalachians. Some thinning of the cloud deck is occurring as mixing of very dry air aloft takes place. In general, more clouds are expected with southwestward extent from DC. Clouds will gradually expand across the area tonight as overrunning moisture and warm advection spreads in from the southwest. Light showers will be possible mainly west of I-81 during the second half of the night. With the thickening clouds, overnight lows for much of the area will be in the mid 40s to near 50. However, northeast Maryland could drop closer to 40 as these areas will be clearer longer.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The surface ridge will remain along the east coast Saturday while the mid/upper level ridge builds overhead. A perturbation within the ridge may provide some lift, but the main contributer to rain chances will be the advancement of the low level warm and moist advection axis. The highest chance for greater than a tenth of an inch of rain will be west of the Blue Ridge. Showers will tend to fall apart to the east as they encounter a drier airmass closer to the surface high. Thick cloud cover will limit highs to the mid 50s to lower 60s for much of the area. Although there could be some lingering light showers or patchy drizzle Saturday night, most areas will be dry as the best forcing departs. Milder temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s are expected.
Deep ridging engulfs much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Sunday, bringing clearing skies and a drastic warm up. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s for much of the area outside of the higher elevations and Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Some guidance indicates potential for a stray shower or thunderstorm to develop during the afternoon along the higher terrain, but with weak forcing and lapse rates, any activity will be short lived. The pattern shift will translate to overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A strong upper-level reaches its peak intensity over the region on Monday. Additionally, high pressure is set up in prime position off the east coast to pump in warm and moist air into the region out of the south. This will lead to well above average temperatures, with some ares potentially pushing for 90 on Monday along the I-95 corridor. Higher end guidance even has much of the area into the low- mid 90s, but I would consider that a low-end probability solution.
Dew points Monday only reach the upper 50s to low 60s, so it won't feel quite as muggy as when we get this sort of setup during the summertime, but still a day where staying cool and hydrated will be important if doing work outdoors.
A weakening upper trough will lift to our northwest on Tuesday as it ejects out of the central CONUS into the Great Lakes region. A weak piece of shortwave energy breaks off as this happens and slides across our region. An accompanying "cold front" will push through and perhaps pop off some thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours. The amount of instability and shear available is still very much in question. As previously mentioned, this isn't the muggiest air mass, so won't have quite as much CAPE as one would expect since there really isn't a direct link into the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear will be modest (30-40 kts of deep layer shear), but nothing too impressive, as the shortwave moves through. Most likely initiating source will be a pre-frontal trough in the lee of the Blue Ridge.
Forecast soundings depict an inverted-V feature in the lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere, which would be indicative of downburst potential with any storms that do manage to get going. Something to watch in the coming days, but a very marginal threat at best at this time.
A warm and unsettled pattern continues Wednesday and Thursday as pieces of upper-level energy ride along the periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge. High temperatures each day will be in the mid 80s with dew points again in the upper 50s to low 60s. This will yield similar instability values each day. However, shear/forcing is weaker, especially on Wednesday. So severe potential is somewhat lower that day in particular. Could see Thursday being the next day to watch, but again it doesn't appear to be a slam dunk at this point in the forecast.
As always with the long term portion of the forecast, the finer details can, and likely will, change as we move closer. So tune into the latest forecast from our office at weather.gov/lwx.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through this evening as high pressure to our northeast maintains dry conditions. Broken ceilings around 5-8kft have been scattering at times but remain prevalent from DCA to the south and west. CHO may remain overcast through tonight. Those ceilings will lower the second half of the night as a warm front approaches. While CHO could drop to MVFR at times by late evening, the most likely onset will be near or after sunrise Saturday.
The warm front will continue across the area Saturday. Showers will be likely west of the Blue Ridge during the morning, affecting MRB. The showers will become lighter and more scattered as they move eastward, with the chance of rain too low to mention at DCA/BWI/MTN. MVFR ceilings are likely at CHO and MRB with a smaller chance of a period of IFR. Have introduced MVFR cigs at IAD as well, although that may be dependent on whether rain makes it this far east. DCA, BWI, and MTN look to stay just east of the lower CIGs , though again it bears watching as that could change. The system exits Saturday night, and while VFR conditions may return overnight, the lower clouds may linger until mixing out Sunday.
A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible near MRB Sunday afternoon. Otherwise no significant weather expected Sunday/Sunday night.
Southeast winds around 10 knots today turn south-southeast to south Saturday, then southwest on Sunday. Could see some occasional gusts to 15-20 knots each afternoon to evening, especially at DCA, MTN, and BWI.
A potent upper-level ridge will keep things quiet on Monday with VFR conditions expected. This should persist for the first half of Tuesday as well.
Thunderstorms become a possibility by Tuesday afternoon at all terminals. Though at this point we are only carrying chance POPs for this period, so it is by no means a certainty. Timing would likely be during the afternoon hours during peak heating as a pre-frontal trough develops in the lee of the Blue Ridge.
MARINE
Onshore flow will continue through tonight. Periods of SCA conditions are likely across most of the waters this evening.
Southeast winds are likely to result in several hours of gusts to around 20 knots, so a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
After a break Saturday morning, southerly channeling is likely to result in additional SCA winds Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, especially on the bay.
High pressure builds across the region Sunday, likely keeping southwest winds at 10 knots or less.
Surface high pressure offshore will bring a southerly flow to the region, which could channel up the Chesapeake Bay at times. This could necessitate SCAs through Tuesday.
In addition to this, there will be the potential for some afternoon/early evening thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Thermal profiles are supportive of strong gusty winds with storms that do develop, so SMWs are a possibility.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore/southeast winds will keep water levels elevated through Saturday. The PM high tide today is lower astronomically, so most locations should remain below flood stage except Straits Point and DC SW Waterfront. Additional advisories will likely be needed for the Saturday morning high tide. Beyond that, additional flooding becomes less certain. High pressure and light southwest winds may allow for gradual draining of water from the estuary.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>533-538>542.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ534-537- 543.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ536.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 332 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure remains situated along the east coast through Saturday. A warm front will lift north of the area by Sunday. A series of fronts will cross the area during the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Upper level ridging will continue building from the west through tonight. A surface high over southern New England begins to slide south into the western Atlantic Ocean. Dry conditions will likely continue through this evening. However, onshore flow continues to result in clouds banked against the central Appalachians. Some thinning of the cloud deck is occurring as mixing of very dry air aloft takes place. In general, more clouds are expected with southwestward extent from DC. Clouds will gradually expand across the area tonight as overrunning moisture and warm advection spreads in from the southwest. Light showers will be possible mainly west of I-81 during the second half of the night. With the thickening clouds, overnight lows for much of the area will be in the mid 40s to near 50. However, northeast Maryland could drop closer to 40 as these areas will be clearer longer.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The surface ridge will remain along the east coast Saturday while the mid/upper level ridge builds overhead. A perturbation within the ridge may provide some lift, but the main contributer to rain chances will be the advancement of the low level warm and moist advection axis. The highest chance for greater than a tenth of an inch of rain will be west of the Blue Ridge. Showers will tend to fall apart to the east as they encounter a drier airmass closer to the surface high. Thick cloud cover will limit highs to the mid 50s to lower 60s for much of the area. Although there could be some lingering light showers or patchy drizzle Saturday night, most areas will be dry as the best forcing departs. Milder temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s are expected.
Deep ridging engulfs much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Sunday, bringing clearing skies and a drastic warm up. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s for much of the area outside of the higher elevations and Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Some guidance indicates potential for a stray shower or thunderstorm to develop during the afternoon along the higher terrain, but with weak forcing and lapse rates, any activity will be short lived. The pattern shift will translate to overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A strong upper-level reaches its peak intensity over the region on Monday. Additionally, high pressure is set up in prime position off the east coast to pump in warm and moist air into the region out of the south. This will lead to well above average temperatures, with some ares potentially pushing for 90 on Monday along the I-95 corridor. Higher end guidance even has much of the area into the low- mid 90s, but I would consider that a low-end probability solution.
Dew points Monday only reach the upper 50s to low 60s, so it won't feel quite as muggy as when we get this sort of setup during the summertime, but still a day where staying cool and hydrated will be important if doing work outdoors.
A weakening upper trough will lift to our northwest on Tuesday as it ejects out of the central CONUS into the Great Lakes region. A weak piece of shortwave energy breaks off as this happens and slides across our region. An accompanying "cold front" will push through and perhaps pop off some thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours. The amount of instability and shear available is still very much in question. As previously mentioned, this isn't the muggiest air mass, so won't have quite as much CAPE as one would expect since there really isn't a direct link into the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear will be modest (30-40 kts of deep layer shear), but nothing too impressive, as the shortwave moves through. Most likely initiating source will be a pre-frontal trough in the lee of the Blue Ridge.
Forecast soundings depict an inverted-V feature in the lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere, which would be indicative of downburst potential with any storms that do manage to get going. Something to watch in the coming days, but a very marginal threat at best at this time.
A warm and unsettled pattern continues Wednesday and Thursday as pieces of upper-level energy ride along the periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge. High temperatures each day will be in the mid 80s with dew points again in the upper 50s to low 60s. This will yield similar instability values each day. However, shear/forcing is weaker, especially on Wednesday. So severe potential is somewhat lower that day in particular. Could see Thursday being the next day to watch, but again it doesn't appear to be a slam dunk at this point in the forecast.
As always with the long term portion of the forecast, the finer details can, and likely will, change as we move closer. So tune into the latest forecast from our office at weather.gov/lwx.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through this evening as high pressure to our northeast maintains dry conditions. Broken ceilings around 5-8kft have been scattering at times but remain prevalent from DCA to the south and west. CHO may remain overcast through tonight. Those ceilings will lower the second half of the night as a warm front approaches. While CHO could drop to MVFR at times by late evening, the most likely onset will be near or after sunrise Saturday.
The warm front will continue across the area Saturday. Showers will be likely west of the Blue Ridge during the morning, affecting MRB. The showers will become lighter and more scattered as they move eastward, with the chance of rain too low to mention at DCA/BWI/MTN. MVFR ceilings are likely at CHO and MRB with a smaller chance of a period of IFR. Have introduced MVFR cigs at IAD as well, although that may be dependent on whether rain makes it this far east. DCA, BWI, and MTN look to stay just east of the lower CIGs , though again it bears watching as that could change. The system exits Saturday night, and while VFR conditions may return overnight, the lower clouds may linger until mixing out Sunday.
A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible near MRB Sunday afternoon. Otherwise no significant weather expected Sunday/Sunday night.
Southeast winds around 10 knots today turn south-southeast to south Saturday, then southwest on Sunday. Could see some occasional gusts to 15-20 knots each afternoon to evening, especially at DCA, MTN, and BWI.
A potent upper-level ridge will keep things quiet on Monday with VFR conditions expected. This should persist for the first half of Tuesday as well.
Thunderstorms become a possibility by Tuesday afternoon at all terminals. Though at this point we are only carrying chance POPs for this period, so it is by no means a certainty. Timing would likely be during the afternoon hours during peak heating as a pre-frontal trough develops in the lee of the Blue Ridge.
MARINE
Onshore flow will continue through tonight. Periods of SCA conditions are likely across most of the waters this evening.
Southeast winds are likely to result in several hours of gusts to around 20 knots, so a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
After a break Saturday morning, southerly channeling is likely to result in additional SCA winds Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, especially on the bay.
High pressure builds across the region Sunday, likely keeping southwest winds at 10 knots or less.
Surface high pressure offshore will bring a southerly flow to the region, which could channel up the Chesapeake Bay at times. This could necessitate SCAs through Tuesday.
In addition to this, there will be the potential for some afternoon/early evening thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Thermal profiles are supportive of strong gusty winds with storms that do develop, so SMWs are a possibility.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore/southeast winds will keep water levels elevated through Saturday. The PM high tide today is lower astronomically, so most locations should remain below flood stage except Straits Point and DC SW Waterfront. Additional advisories will likely be needed for the Saturday morning high tide. Beyond that, additional flooding becomes less certain. High pressure and light southwest winds may allow for gradual draining of water from the estuary.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>533-538>542.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ534-537- 543.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ536.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD | 11 sm | 12 min | ESE 07 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 30°F | 29% | 30.38 | |
| KDCA RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL,VA | 20 sm | 15 min | SSE 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 32°F | 32% | 30.40 | |
| KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD | 21 sm | 17 min | ESE 07 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 27°F | 25% | 30.41 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Nottingham, Patuxent River, Maryland, Tide feet
Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290° true
Ebb direction 110° true
Fri -- 02:15 AM EDT 0.53 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:28 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 09:25 AM EDT -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:23 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:18 PM EDT 0.17 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:54 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM EDT -0.27 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 11:12 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for MapFlood direction 290° true
Ebb direction 110° true
Fri -- 02:15 AM EDT 0.53 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:28 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 09:25 AM EDT -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:23 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:18 PM EDT 0.17 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:54 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM EDT -0.27 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 11:12 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0 |
| 7 am |
| -0.3 |
| 8 am |
| -0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.6 |
| 10 am |
| -0.6 |
| 11 am |
| -0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| -0 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -0 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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