Sunday, February18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Beach, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:48PM Sunday February 18, 2018 4:00 AM EST (09:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:32AMMoonset 8:40PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 337 Am Est Sun Feb 18 2018
Rest of the overnight..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 337 Am Est Sun Feb 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the area today and move offshore tonight. A warm front will cross the region on Monday, bringing unseasonably warm conditions. A cold front approaches the mid- atlantic by the middle of the work week, and stalls near the region at the end of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Beach, MD
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location: 38.73, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 180859 aaa
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
400 am est Sun feb 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds into the region today and moves offshore
tonight. A warm front will lift northward through the area on
Monday, ushering in another round of unseasonably warm
temperatures. A cold front will approach during the middle
portion of the work week.

Near term through tonight
There is a bit of a slushy snowy mess left after yesterday's
precipitation, and temperatures are at or below freezing roughly
north of a line from cumberland to harrisonburg to dulles to
baltimore. Some slick spots remain possible and caution should be
used, especially on that first step outside and the first portion of
any driving done early this morning. Temperatures will be solidly
above freezing by 9am everywhere, ending any remaining issues.

Otherwise, no significant weather today with a good deal of
sunshine and highs approaching 50 except at the higher
elevations. Lows will remain above freezing tonight in many
areas as cloud cover increases and winds begin to shift out of
the southeast.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
The new work week begins with a warm front swinging northward
through the area. Although I hate using a 50 pop because it
feels like a hedging of bets, i'm looking at a pretty even mix
of model guidance that shows virtually nothing and guidance
that paints a period of light rain. Will keep likely pops west
of the blue ridge, where there's just slightly more moisture
available. Regardless, I think we are talking about less than a
tenth of an inch of rain in most areas -- so nothing like the
precip events we've had recently. Can't rule out a bit of light
lingering rain into Monday night, mainly near the bay.

Temperatures Monday night probably don't move much, and might
even perhaps rise slightly during the night.

Tuesday begins a two-day period of significant heat for mid-
february, reminiscent of the warm spell in the second half of
february last year. 00 utc GFS mos guidance is a jaw-dropper in
our western CWA and points west, giving cumberland md a high of
79 and petersburg WV a high of 81. I'm not willing to go there
quite yet but it's not out of the realm of possibility either.

The notable difference between this upcoming Tuesday and last
Thursday (which was similarly warm) is that it will be even more
humid. Given good model consensus on expected dewpoints and
wind, I think many places may struggle to drop below 60 Tuesday
night. I went several degrees above guidance, and my gut feeling
is I may still be on the cool side of reality.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
An anomalously strong upper level ridge (heights 2-3 sd above
climatology for february) will be positioned near the southeastern
us coastline through the end of the week and into the weekend. This
will provide for strong and persistent southwest flow aloft and
continued bouts of moisture warm air advection, which will lead to
an active period with above normal temperatures and precipitation
chances.

A cold front will be on the approach during the day Wednesday, and
models are beginning to form more of a consensus with frontal
passage likely late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and therefore
increasing chances for rain showers by Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night. Out ahead of the front, southwest flow and very
warm conditions are expected. After a morning start in the 50s to
around 60f, with 850mb temperatures progged to be from 12-14c and
925mb temperatures from 14-17c, widespread 70s are expected for
highs across the region. These temperatures will be in (something
that is incredible for me to type)the realm of 25-30 degrees above
climatological normals for the day (49 32f at dca).

As the front shifts southward Wednesday night and Thursday strong
high pressure will build into southeast canada and new england. This
will create a cold air damming set-up across the mid-atlantic, as
low level northeasterly flow is overrun by continued southwest flow
and additional warm air advection aloft. This will create an
unsettled day weather-wise for Thursday with cloudy skies and rain
chances. Temperatures will be significantly cooler than Wednesday,
although still near or above daily normals.

The frontal zone will remain nearby through Friday and Saturday, and
current model guidance depicts the boundary surging back northward
with the region back in the warm sector by Saturday. But with the
zone still nearby, a wet and active pattern will be in place with
numerous chances for rain showers.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
Dealing with low clouds and fog at the moment; these will be gone by
or after daybreak, leaving no further issues for aviation through
18z Monday. Monday afternoon, there is a 50-60 percent chance of
rain, and an even higher likelihood of lowering ceilings, with MVFR
likely and ifr possible. Sticking with MVFR in the forecast for now.

If the rain materializes, visibility could be similarly restricted.

Those restrictions should improve as a warm front passes late in the
day. Tuesday will be extremely warm and a bit breezy, but dry.

PredominantlyVFR expected Wednesday with gusty southwest flow.

Chances for showers will be on the increase by late Wednesday, and
periods of sub-vfr conditions become possible from Wednesday evening
through Thursday with rain and low cloud potential.

Marine
With high pressure moving overhead today, there will be no marine
concerns through Monday. As the high shifts offshore and a warm
front pushes through Monday afternoon (perhaps accompanied by some
light rain), southerly winds will pick up, with gusts to sca
criteria possible Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday with gusty southwest
winds. With warm air temperatures expected over considerably cooler
waters, the strongest gusts will likely be observed along the
shorelines. SCA potential continues into Thursday behind the frontal
boundary as well as winds turn to the north.

Climate
Some all-time february highest minimum temp records could be in
jeopardy, but it depends on how quickly the cold front moves through
Wednesday night.

If the Wednesday morning "low" that we are currently forecasting
ends up being the Wednesday calendar day low (60 at dca), it would
be the first time not dropping below 60 at dca in february since
1891, and only the sixth time on record in the entire meteorological
winter season. Even a low 56 or higher at dca would be the warmest
low in the month of february since 1976.

The all-time february highest minimums are: 61 at dca washington
(2 17 1891) 58 at bwi baltimore (2 17 1891) 55 at iad dulles
(2 17 1976)
- records only go back to 1960 at iad
it almost GOES without saying that daily records are in jeopardy. A
table of those records follows:
record warm daily maximum temperatures Tue 2 20 Wed 2 21 dca
76 (1930) 75 (1953) bwi 76 (1930) 74 (1930) iad 70 (1971)
70 (1997)
record warm daily minimum temperatures Tue 2 20 Wed 2 21 dca
59 (1939) 51 (1954) bwi 57 (1939) 49 (1981) iad 46 (1981)
45 (1981)

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Je
near term... Je
short term... Je
long term... Mm
aviation... Je mm
marine... Je mm
climate... Je


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi60 min W 7 G 8.9 35°F 37°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 13 mi30 min WNW 9.7 G 9.7 37°F 1020.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 18 mi42 min 35°F 1018 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi42 min 36°F 36°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi42 min NNW 6 G 12 37°F 1019.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi42 min 37°F 42°F1019.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi42 min WSW 6 G 8 36°F 41°F1019.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi42 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 38°F 40°F1019 hPa
FSNM2 34 mi42 min W 9.9 G 13 1017.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 34 mi42 min WSW 8 G 11 35°F 1018.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi42 min W 1.9 G 5.1 35°F 38°F1018.2 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 37 mi42 min WSW 14 G 16 35°F 39°F1018.2 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi42 min NW 5.1 G 7 37°F 43°F1018.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi42 min WNW 11 G 13 38°F 43°F1019.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 49 mi30 min E 12 G 14 38°F 1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD17 mi66 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist37°F36°F96%1018.3 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD19 mi64 minW 610.00 miOvercast35°F34°F97%1018.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD20 mi65 minW 67.00 miOvercast36°F33°F93%1019 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N6N5N6E11E8SE9SE8SE7E3CalmNE3NE4----SE8S5W3CalmCalmW4W3CalmCalm
1 day ago3W7W8CalmCalmSW3CalmSW434NW13
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NW8NW7NW4CalmNW4
2 days agoE3SE4CalmSE4SE5SE6SE3SE6SE7SE4SE7SE4E4E6SE6SE54SW66--3SE3CalmNW4

Tide / Current Tables for Rose Haven, Maryland
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Rose Haven
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:20 AM EST     0.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:37 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:49 PM EST     0.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.100.20.40.60.70.70.60.40.2-0-0.1-0.1-00.20.40.70.80.90.80.60.40.20

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:56 AM EST     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     0.74 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:15 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:10 PM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:14 PM EST     0.78 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.60.70.70.40.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.4-00.30.60.80.70.50.1-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.