Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Beach, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:36PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 10:24 AM EDT (14:24 UTC) Moonrise 11:14AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 908 Am Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Rest of today..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and early afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 908 Am Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front approaching from the north will stall near the waters through Wednesday. Low pressure will track along the boundary and pass near the waters Wednesday. The front will then drop farther south Thursday. High pressure will briefly build toward the waters from the ohio valley Friday before moving into the western atlantic over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Beach, MD
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location: 38.73, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 191344
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
944 am edt Tue jun 19 2018

Synopsis
A cold front dropping south out of pennsylvania will stall over the
mid-atlantic during the middle part of the week. A wave of low
pressure will move along this front Wednesday into Wednesday night.

The front will sag southward toward the north carolina border Friday
as high pressure briefly builds in from the ohio valley, then the
front will return northward over the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Current analysis shows a weak cold front dropping south through
pennsylvania this morning. A pressure trough is located over
southern maryland into central virginia. A northwest flow has
developed behind the pressure trough and a west to southwest
flow continues ahead of the trough over southern maryland into
central virginia. A downsloping westerly component to the wind
has allowed for sunshine this morning, and that has overcome any
weak cold advection. Therefore, MAX temps have been bumped up a
few degrees. MAX temps are expected to range from the upper 80s
to lower 90s in northern maryland, the lower to middle 90s in
the washington and baltimore metropolitan areas, and the middle
90s across much of central virginia. Dewpoints remain high this
morning with lower to middle 70s across most locations. The
dewpoints may mix down a few degrees behind the pressure trough
this afternoon, but it will still feel hot and humid across the
area. Heat indices are forecast to range from the upper 80s to
lower 90s near the mason-dixon line, to the upper 90s and lower
100s near washington and baltimore, with lower to perhaps middle
100s across central virginia and the virginia piedmont. Heat
indices will be close to advisory criteria, especially near and
south of dc, but confidence is not high enough for a headline at
this time due to the westerly component to the low-level flow
and some mid-level clouds moving through this afternoon.

Scattered strong storms are expected from around midday through
mid to late afternoon across the area as the cold front sags
south out of pennsylvania intersects with the warm, humid and
unstable airmass. Modified klwx sounding shows around 2000 j kg
of MLCAPE developing, with the highest amounts near and south of
the pressure trough across southern maryland toward central
virginia. This coupled with marginal shear may result in
isolated severe wind gusts. Veering low-level flow and enhanced
low-level shear along the boundary would suggest an isolated
tornado is possible, particularly over central virginia where
instability should be greatest (probability would be higher with
any boundary river breeze intersections).

There is also a heavy rain flood threat, but it appears too isolated
for a watch at this point (see hydrology section for more
details).

Following the passage of a cold front and its scattered showers and
thunderstorms, temperatures and dew points will be a tad lower
tonight than previous nights.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As the front stalls over central virginia Wednesday, a wave of low
pressure developing over the ohio valley will move eastward.

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely. Most of the
cwa should be on the "cool" side of the boundary, with a cooler
boundary layer meaning less of a chance of severe weather (though
still possible on an isolated basis near and south of the front).

Heavy rain will be a threat with high moisture content through the
atmosphere. Average rainfall amounts of a half to one inch are
possible.

The front will continue slowly sagging southward in the wake of low
pressure Wednesday night through Thursday night, with gradually
decreasing chances of showers and humidity levels.

Long term Friday through Monday
High pressure will be situated over new england on Friday with
the stalled front southwest of the area. Cooler and more stable
conditions can be expected, although moisture and overrunning
will be more prominent in southwestern portions of the CWA and
could result in showers at times. A closed mid upper level low
in the central us will open and lift toward the great lakes on
Saturday. As the attendant surface cyclone takes a similar
track, the front will try to lift back to the north across the
area as a warm front. The northward progress of the front is
uncertain, and it's possible a secondary wave of low pressure
attempts to develop along it. At a minimum, rain will be
possible at times, but to the south of the front, there will be
a better chance of thunderstorms, and sufficient wind fields
could result in storm organization.

Sunday will likely be warmer as the low tracks up the st.

Lawrence valley. However, a surface trough may linger across the
area and result in some showers and storms. The attendant cold
front will push southward late Sunday or early Monday with an
accompanying chance of showers and storms as well. The southward
progress of the front will determine lingering rain chances for
Monday, but it will likely be cooler.

Aviation 14z Tuesday through Saturday
A cold front dropping out of pennsylvania will induce scattered
thunderstorms mainly between 16-23z, moving north to south. Any
thunderstorm may briefly reduce visibility to ifr. Isolated
severe wind gusts (50 kts) are possible mainly SW of a line from
mrb to iad to dca. Outside of any convection, winds are
expected to be NW around 10 kts.

Cloud cover should preclude widespread fog tonight, but patchy MVFR
is possible. Low-level dry advection will also tilt the scales
against fog (as well as low ceilings). Light and variable winds as
the front stalls overhead.

More widespread lower ceilings and possible visibility reductions
are likely Wednesday into Wednesday night as a wave of low pressure
moves along the stalled front, bringing numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms.VFR should return to most sites Thursday as the front
pushes farther south. S winds AOB 10 kts Wed becoming variable wed
night as the front crosses, then N AOB 10 kts thu.

Showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern Friday into
Saturday as a warm front slowly lifts northward. Sub-vfr clouds
may also occur before the front lifts north, particularly Friday
night.

Marine
Sca for northern chesapeake bay and upper tidal potomac this
morning, mainly from increased gradient due to residual outflow
of overnight convection over pennsylvania propagating south.

Otherwise, winds should stay largely below SCA levels outside of
any convection through Thursday.

Northeast to east flow Friday becoming southerly on Saturday as
a warm front lifts north. Low probability of SCA conditions at
this time. However, thunderstorms are possible mainly Saturday.

Hydrology
High pwats (around 2 inches) are expected this afternoon ahead of a
cold front dropping southward out of pennsylvania. Despite warm
cloud layers in excess of 12 kft and steering flow somewhat parallel
to the forcing boundary, low-level NW flow and forward storm motion
should prevent a more widespread threat of flooding. The forward
motion of the front forcing the convection may accelerate some as it
is modulated by residual cold pools from overnight convection, which
would help move storms along. We also have not had much appreciable
rain in about a week. Therefore, there is no watch at this time.

However, some training is still possible and given the conditions
listed above.

A second, more widespread and possibly persistent round of showers
and a few heavy thunderstorms is likely Wednesday into Wednesday
night as low pressure developing over the ohio valley moves eastward
over the mid-atlantic along the stalled front. High moisture
content, wetter antecedent conditions and additional training
potential would result in a higher flood potential, and may
ultimately require a watch.

Climate
Above normal temperatures are forecast today. While record highs
are unlikely, record warm lows are still possible. Below is a
list of daily record warm temperatures.

Washington dc area (dca)
date record high record warm low
june 19 99 (1994) 75 (2011, 1994, 1981, 1978)
temperature records for the washington dc area have been kept
at ronald reagan washington national airport since 1945.

Additional temperature records observed downtown date back to
1872.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
date record high record warm low
june 19 99 (1994) 74 (1905)
temperature records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall airport
since 1950. Additional temperature records observed downtown
date back to 1872.

Dulles va area (iad)
date record high record warm low
june 19 98 (1994) 71 (2014)
temperature records for the dulles va area have been kept at
washington dulles international airport since 1960.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt today for anz530>532-535-
538>540.

Synopsis... Dhof
near term... Bjl dhof
short term... Dhof
long term... Ads
aviation... Bjl ads dhof
marine... Bjl ads dhof
hydrology... Dfh
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 10 mi115 min Calm 77°F 1011 hPa72°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 13 mi45 min Calm G 1.9 82°F 1012.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi85 min W 5.1 G 5.1 79°F 74°F1011.5 hPa (+0.4)72°F
44063 - Annapolis 17 mi45 min W 1.9 G 3.9 81°F 1010.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 18 mi55 min 87°F 1009.7 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi55 min 78°F 77°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi55 min NW 4.1 G 8 84°F 1011.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi55 min 85°F 78°F1011.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi55 min NW 8 G 12 91°F 76°F1010.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi55 min W 5.1 G 6 87°F 76°F1010.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 34 mi55 min W 4.1 G 5.1 82°F 1009.9 hPa
FSNM2 34 mi55 min W 6 G 8.9 83°F 1010.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi55 min NNW 7 G 12 86°F 80°F1009.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 37 mi55 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 81°F 78°F1010.3 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi55 min WSW 2.9 G 7 87°F 81°F1010.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi61 min N 8.9 G 8.9
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi55 min W 7 G 8.9 81°F 81°F1011.3 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD17 mi31 minN 56.00 miFair with Haze85°F75°F72%1010.3 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD19 mi29 minNW 8 G 1710.00 miFair89°F72°F57%1010.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD20 mi50 minWSW 310.00 miFair82°F71°F70%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE10SE11S8S12S14S10--S3S3SE3SE3CalmSW3W4SW4W4W3W6N5Calm33N5
1 day agoSE6SE5SE5SE6SE9S7SE9SE6SE5SE5S3SE5S7S5S6S3CalmNW3E3CalmCalmE4SE6SE7
2 days agoSE8SE9SE12SE13SE12SE12SE9SE7S6SE5S5SE5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Rose Haven, Maryland
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Rose Haven
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:18 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:08 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.60.50.40.40.60.81.11.31.41.41.210.80.60.40.30.30.50.711.21.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:20 AM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:22 AM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:52 PM EDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:23 PM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.2-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.4-00.40.70.80.80.60.2-0.2-0.6-0.9-1-0.9-0.6-0.10.30.70.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.