Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Friendship, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:53PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:12 AM EST (08:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:10PMMoonset 11:51PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 129 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
.gale warning in effect from 6 am est this morning through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Overnight..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain or snow or sleet. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 3 ft. Rain or snow or sleet. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming nw late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 129 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over new england overnight as low pressure develops over the tennessee valley. Another area of low pressure will develop along the carolina coast Thursday, strengthen into a gale, then move towards long island Thursday night as the high pressure center moves offshore. Another area of high pressure will build in from the ohio valley for the weekend. Gale warnings may be required Friday, and small craft advisories may be needed through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendship CDP, MD
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location: 38.75, -76.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 150224
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
924 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build over new england overnight as an area
of low pressure develops over the tennessee valley. Another
area of low pressure will develop along the carolina coast early
Thursday and move north towards long island Thursday night,
while the high pressure center moves offshore. Another area of
high pressure will build in from the ohio valley over the
weekend. A cold front will likely approach from the great lakes
early next week.

Near term through Thursday
At 02z, regional radar mosaic shows reflectivity returns in
southern and southwest va, with 02z surface obs shows unknown
precip (aka likley ip) in southwest va at hillsville khlx.

Across our cwa, surface winds have begun to veer, showing cold
air damming beginning to setup. This will initiate, and then
reinforce, cold air below the inversion which is evident at
around h85 on this evening's 00z kiad sounding. Very cold air
associated with the surface high (-10c 925mb at kaly) which attm
is building into new england, will continue to drain down the
northeast corridor and then get locked in place east of the
eastern continental divide.

This sets up a solid mixed winter p-type event along and west
of the blue ridge, where winter storm warnings are already in
place, denoting much higher confidence of at least a moderate,
potentially high impact event in these warned locations.

However, east of the blue ridge, there is less confidence of
winter p-type, with the influences of the chesapeake bay and
atlantic, particularly east of intestate 95. The nwp-progged
upward motion and cold air aloft tomorrow morning is an area of
concern, as vertical displacement of this colder air aloft with
large UVV as evidenced by every nwp model tomorrow morning could
promote a longer period of frozen precipitation tomorrow
morning in the i-95 corridor, including baltimore and washington
dc metro areas. Fortunately, winter weather advisories are
posted in these areas as well, and the only updates I have made
to the forecast is bring the snow sleet accumulations further
east with around 0.5" accumulations early tomorrow morning in
the metro areas, and up to 1-2 inches in the northwest suburbs
loudoun west montgomery howard N balt.

The reasonable, 23z hrrr p-type diagnostic has precip moving in
around daybreak in dc metro, starting off as sleet and rain,
then changing over to snow sleet for several hours tomorrow
morning. The same scenario exists for the baltimore metro, but
holding off until 7-9 am start time. The model then shifts
everything to rain early in the afternoon in this region. With
the road temps forecasts AOA freezing, this should inhibit
accumulations on road surfaces, unless the magnitude of the
precipitation can overcome the above freezing road temps. This
would be the reasonable worse case scenario, and even with this
scenario, modeled road temps rise AOA 40f early afternoon in the
balt wash corridor. Bottom line ATTM is that it is likely that
freezing and frozen will impact the Thursday morning rush hour,
and while it likely won't cause accumulation on road surfaces,
it will be the first winter precip of the season and contribute
to some shock and awe.

West of the blue ridge, confidence is much higher for an
extended 24-hour freezing frozen p-type event lasting through
Thursday night. Difficult to come up with high confidence
specifics as to the mix magnitude of p-type west of blue ridge,
but the 90 percentile for freezing rain has well over 0.5
inches there, approaching 1.0 inch glaze accumulation in the
central shenandoah valley and surrounding terrain. I have higher
confidence with higher elevations AOA 2kft, as a major freezing
rain event could be unfolding tomorrow along skyline drive and
the eastern continental divide, including the spruce knob
region.

I also have concerns about moderate-to-heavy rainfall on
Tuesday leading to isolated flooding due to rapid runoff, as
vegetation has been killed off by freeze over the past couple of
weeks. Areas most prone for runoff flooding will be southern
md, prince georges county upper marlboro, and anne arundel.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
A second low will develop over north carolina on Thursday and
strengthen through the day as it moves northeast under a coupled
upper level jet. Meanwhile, an upper low will push northeast
toward us from the south-central us. High pressure over new
england will keep damming of cold air going over the western
portions of the forecast area, while some cold air erosion looks
likely east of the blue ridge by afternoon. Thus, have
sleet rain along and east of i-95 transitioning to plain rain
through the day, with snow sleet freezing rain between the blue
ridge and i-95 changing to sleet freezing rain and then rain
very late. From the blue ridge west, cold air likely gets stuck,
so am keeping temps at or below freezing all day with
snow sleet freezing rain transitioning mainly to sleet freezing
rain. Potential for significant snow and ice exists given the
favorable synoptic set-up for cold air and heavy precipitation.

Caveats to this solution include prolonged periods of sleet, the
fact that heavy freezing rain is less efficient at accreting,
and that much of the precipitation will fall while there is
solar insolation. However, within the warned area, it is
important to note that hazardous wintry precipitation will be
falling most of the day and into the evening with temperatures
near or below freezing. Given the antecedent warm conditions,
accumulations will likely be greater on grassy and elevated
surfaces, as well as any areas which are typically shaded.

Even where precip is mainly rain, the hazard of heavy rain and
potential flooding will exist. See the hydro section below for
more details.

The surface low quickly lifts northeast Thursday evening, with a
mid-level dry slot working in around the low to our west.

Therefore precipitation will likely turn to light rain drizzle,
(freezing drizzle where surface temperatures remain AOB 32).

Later in the evening and overnight, wraparound moisture
associated with the passing upper low will bring a final shot of
precipitation, which would initially be rain freezing rain, but
could end as a period of snow. Any accumulating snow is most
likely over the mountains. Temps will likely be fairly steady
Thursday night.

Friday into Friday night, the system heads further away and we
have a comparatively mild westerly flow settling across the
region. Temps will actually be noticeably milder on Friday after
the clouds break, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Lows
return near or below freezing Friday night with high pressure in
control.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
The long term period will start out with a weak ridge of high
pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft. This will lead to
mostly sunny skies on Saturday, with temperatures maxing out in the
upper 40s to near 50. Cloudier, but still dry conditions are
forecast for Sunday, with temperatures once again reaching into the
upper 40s to around 50.

A cold front will progress through the area on Monday as a
vigorous shortwave trough traverses the great lakes region.

With the main forcing for ascent associated with the trough
displaced well to our north and limited moisture ahead of the
cold front, any precipitation is expected to be light and mainly
confined to upslope favored areas to the west of the blue
ridge. High pressure will move back in for Tuesday, resulting in
quiet weather conditions and below normal temperatures with
highs in the 40s.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Clouds will lower as precipitation arrives late tonight towards
dawn for the major terminals. Mainly rain expected at dca
(though there could be a period of sleet and snow), with more
of a mix of rain ice snow at the other terminals. Mrb is likely
to be the snowiest and iciest, though temperatures could persist
very close to freezing at cho, bwi, and iad into the midday to
afternoon hours. CIGS and vis also likely to be significantly
restricted on Thursday (ifr to lifr), even where it is just
plain rain. Low level wind is possible, although the surface
gradient may preclude it from reaching criteria.

Conditions improve later Friday night withVFR returning Friday
as the system pulls away. Conditions continueVFR Friday night.

Vfr conditions are expected through the weekend into early next
week.

Marine
An increase in winds overnight as low pressure develops and approaches
from the southwest. Therefore, a small craft advisory remains
in effect for the middle bay and lower potomac. Winds shift more
northeasterly Thursday and increase potentially to 35 knots,
with gales now up for the central bay. As the low passes
overhead Thursday evening, there will likely be a lull in the
winds, but they will increase again as the low pulls away, so
have left the headlines in effect. A gale warning could
potentially be needed for all waters by Friday morning. Rain and
fog, perhaps also some sleet, are hazards Thursday as well,
though the weather will clear on Friday. Winds will gradually
subside by Friday night as high pressure moves in.

Sca level winds may be possible very early Saturday morning before
winds relax as high pressure moves overhead.

Hydrology
A plume of 1.5+ inch pws will be advecting toward the mid-
atlantic Thursday on an anomalously strong 850 hpa easterly jet.

Though pws likely stay around 1-1.25 directly overhead, the
very strong low-level moisture advection coupled with strong
mid and upper jet dynamics will result in widespread moderate to
heavy precipitation. In the i-95 corridor where precipitation
is expected to fall as mainly liquid (and where 6-hr FFG is less
than 1.5 inches), some isolated minor areal flooding instances
could arise. Generally 1-2" QPF seems likely, but will be spread
out over a long duration. Latest mmefs nwm forecasts have
trended downward for streams and rivers, but some poor drainage
flooding is certainly possible, especially where leaves are
blocking storm drains.

Tides coastal flooding
Increasing onshore flow overnight into Thursday ahead of an
approaching coastal low will cause tidal anomalies to increase.

Although tides will be near astronomical minimums, minor
flooding is still possible for at least some areas along the
tidal potomac river and western shore of the chesapeake bay.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 13th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.17 inches (1886)
5. 57.54 inches (1948)
6. 57.38 inches (2018)
7. 54.29 inches (1937)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 62.66 inches (2003)
2. 62.35 inches (1889)
3. 61.68 inches (2018)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.05 inches (1972)
3. 58.09 inches (1996)
4. 57.65 inches (2018)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Thursday for
dcz001.

Md... Winter storm warning from 4 am Thursday to 4 am est Friday for
mdz003-501-502.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Thursday for
mdz013-014-504.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 4 pm est Thursday for
mdz503.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Thursday for
mdz004>006-011-505>508.

Va... Winter storm warning from 1 am Thursday to 1 am est Friday for
vaz025-503-504-508.

Winter storm warning from 4 am Thursday to 4 am est Friday for
vaz026>031-507.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to noon est Thursday for
vaz036>038-050-056.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Thursday for
vaz039-051>055-502.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 4 pm est Thursday for
vaz040-501-505-506.

Wv... Winter storm warning from 4 am Thursday to 4 am est Friday for
wvz050>053-055-501>506.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to noon est
Thursday for anz532-540-542.

Gale warning from noon Thursday to 6 am est Friday for
anz532>534-537-540>543.

Small craft advisory from noon Thursday to 6 am est Friday for
anz535-536.

Small craft advisory until noon est Thursday for anz533-534-
537-541-543.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am est Friday
for anz539.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Thursday to 6 am est Friday for
anz530-531-538.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Lee
short term... Ads
long term... Kjp
aviation... Ads kjp lee
marine... Ads kjp
hydrology... Lwx
tides coastal flooding... Lwx
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 9 mi103 min ENE 5.1 37°F 1034 hPa22°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 12 mi73 min ENE 16 G 17 37°F 51°F1034.7 hPa (-0.3)19°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 15 mi43 min 40°F 1033.9 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 16 mi37 min E 16 G 18 38°F 1034.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 17 mi43 min 38°F 1033.7 hPa
CPVM2 19 mi43 min 38°F 22°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 26 mi43 min ENE 2.9 G 8 39°F 50°F1034.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 26 mi43 min ENE 16 G 22 38°F 1033.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 28 mi43 min 39°F 49°F1033.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 30 mi43 min NE 12 G 16 39°F 54°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 32 mi43 min NE 9.9 G 13 37°F 1034.3 hPa
FSNM2 32 mi43 min ENE 11 G 13 36°F 1033.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 36 mi43 min E 8.9 G 12 37°F 53°F1034.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 36 mi43 min E 4.1 G 8 35°F 48°F1034.7 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi43 min NE 1 G 8 40°F 50°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 43 mi49 min ENE 9.9 G 14
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi43 min NNE 14 G 18 39°F 45°F1032.8 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD16 mi19 minENE 910.00 miFair39°F23°F53%1034.2 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD18 mi17 minNE 410.00 miFair36°F20°F52%1034.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD19 mi33 minno data10.00 miFair36°F19°F52%1034.2 hPa

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmSE5SE8E4SE5E3E4E5E4E4E4NE3NE4NE6NE9NE10N7

Tide / Current Tables for Fairhaven, Herring Bay, Maryland
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Fairhaven
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:02 AM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM EST     0.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:54 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

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Tide / Current Tables for Fairhaven, Herring Bay, Maryland
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Fairhaven
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:02 AM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM EST     0.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:54 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.