Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Friendship, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:21PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:26 PM EDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:30AMMoonset 4:48PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 802 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Patchy fog.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 802 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move up the coast near the delmarva tonight. Another area of low pressure will move through the area Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will cross the waters late Thursday. High pressure will arrive by Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendship, MD
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location: 38.75, -76.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 231906
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
306 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northeast off the DELMARVA tonight.

Upper-level low pressure will move toward the area Wednesday
through Thursday, and then depart on Friday. High pressure will
move across the area Friday night into Saturday, with a warm
front approaching on Sunday.

Near term through tonight
Latest surface analysis indicates that high pressure remains
over the northern mid-atlantic this afternoon. A stationary
front is draped south of the area. Dry air associated with the
high pressure is limiting northward progress and intensity of
rain with the first wave along the front. Expect areas of light
rain for the remainder of the afternoon.

A second trough is located near the smokey mountains, which
will help induce cyclogenesis along the coast this evening.

Some uncertainty remains with the evolution of rainfall tonight,
as well as a couple changes from the previous forecast. The
main difference amongst models is how much the dry air wins
out... With a wide range of QPF in the dc baltimore corridor.

Even if rain does eventually overspread the entire area as
suggested by several models, this corridor will also be farthest
removed from forcing from both the coastal low and a shortwave
trough over the appalachians. This trough has resulted in a
substantial bump up in pops over the mountains tonight... And the
overall exit of the two systems is a little slower than
previously suggested. While some areas may see a period of
moderate rainfall, guidance does not suggest there will be
enough to have flooding concerns.

With saturated low levels, fog development is still possible.

Lows will be in the 50s.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
Most of the daytime hours of Wednesday will be dry as the
coastal low moves away and the wedged high pressure continues to
exert influence. A few showers or drizzle may develop in the
allegheny highlands. It will be cloudy across the entire area with
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Meanwhile, dynamic low pressure system will be winding up over
the ohio valley. Strong low level jet moisture transport will
overspread the area Wednesday night, resulting in a widespread
moderate to perhaps locally heavy rainfall. With strong theta-e
advection aloft, there may be a few embedded rumbles of thunder
as well. If any areas in the mountains overperform on rainfall
tonight, it could set the stage for minor flooding concerns, but
will have to let the preceding events play out first. Otherwise
the system is progressive as the dry slot works northward
Thursday morning, with amounts from this wave ranging from 0.5
to 1.5 inches.

Jet energy will be moving off to the east on Thursday as upper
level low moves overhead and takes on a negative tilt. Surface
low looks to develop over northern parts of the area in response
to the forcing. The amount of clearing and destabilization is
in question, and if so, how much would overlap with the
departing shear. So while showers will be probable by afternoon,
the amount and intensity of thunderstorms is uncertain. Rain
chances will diminish Thursday night as low occluded front move
to the east.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Closed upper level low will continue to move ne
away from new england on Friday. Energy behind the upper trough may
enhance some showers over our area. Conditions dry out into Friday
night and Saturday as high pressure briefly builds over.

Shortwave trough and an approaching warm front will bring rounds of
showers Saturday evening and into Monday, as the front stalls near
or over our cwa. Cold front approaches from the west Monday into
Tuesday keeping the unsettled weather conditions over our area.

High temperatures will be near normal mainly in the 70s and low
80s... Some 60s at higher elevations.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
MVFR CIGS have been spreading back to the northwest as wave of
low pressure moves along the coast. Rainfall through this
afternoon will be light in nature. Considerable uncertainty
still exists about this evening into tonight. While MOS guidance
still suggest ifr CIGS develop, actual model rh fields show dry
air advecting in from the northeast, causing CIGS to lift.

Intensity of rainfall also remains in question, especially
across baltimore washington. Have trended tafs more
optimistic, but did not goVFR until after dawn Wednesday.

Break in low clouds and precip during the day Wednesday,
although remaining ovc. Next wave of rain will arrive Wednesday
night and be moderate to possibly heavy at times. Ifr or lower
conditions seem likely. Llws may be an issue with southeasterly
winds at surface and southerly aloft. A break in rain is
possible Thursday morning in addition to rising cigs, but
additional showers and perhaps thunderstorms will occur Thursday
afternoon. Precipitation exits Thursday evening but CIGS may be
slow to lift.

Periods of sub-vfr conditions possible on Friday,
becomingVFR Friday night into Saturday. Then sub-vfr conditions
return Saturday evening and into Sunday with rounds of showers
moving through our region. Gusts as high as 22 kt possible on Friday.

Marine
Low clouds will result in poor momentum transfer though the midweek.

Coastal low pressure will move past the DELMARVA tonight. Am
maintaining small craft advisories for the mid bay and lower
potomac through 6 am. Southeast winds increase Wednesday night
in response to low pressure in the ohio valley. Have hoisted a
small craft advisory for larger waters of the bay and lower
potomac where mixing should be better, although moderate rain
may eventually limit this potential. There may be a lull on
Thursday morning, but winds may increase again later in the day
as low pressure passes by to the north.

Scattered showers expected on Friday with breezy conditions,
gusting as high as 22 kt, which would require a small craft
advisory. Conditions dry out Friday night into Saturday before
other rounds of rain move through into Sunday. Winds will be
below the SCA threshold Saturday and Sunday.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels are less than a half foot above astronomical normals
this afternoon. However... Coastal low pressure will strengthen the
onshore flow a little this evening... So anomalies will increase a
bit during this time. The flow should be light enough for water
levels to remain below minor flooding thresholds for most
areas... But it will be close for sensitive areas such as straits
point in st marys county and annapolis in anne arundel county.

Anomalies will have to be monitored through this evening.

The low will move away from the area late tonight into
Wednesday... But deep low pressure will cross the area Thursday, with
southeast winds picking up Wednesday night. The early Thursday
morning tide cycle will need to be monitored, as the preponderance
of evidence suggests that minor flooding is likely. Minor flooding
is possible during the high tide cycles Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night... But confidence is lower since the wind is expected
to turn west to southwest.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm Wednesday to 6 am edt Thursday
for anz531>534-537-539>541-543.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz533-534-
537-543.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Imr
aviation... Ads imr
marine... Ads imr
tides coastal flooding... Bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 9 mi116 min E 1.9 62°F 1009 hPa56°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 12 mi26 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 62°F 66°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 15 mi36 min E 9.7 G 12 63°F 1010.2 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 16 mi36 min SE 5.8 G 5.8 63°F 1009.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 17 mi50 min 64°F 1009.1 hPa
CPVM2 19 mi50 min 64°F 55°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 26 mi50 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 63°F 69°F1009 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 26 mi50 min E 8 G 9.9 60°F 1009.9 hPa
44061 - Upper Potomac, MD 26 mi38 min N 7.8 G 7.8 59°F 69°F1009.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 28 mi50 min 62°F 68°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 29 mi36 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 64°F 1010.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 30 mi50 min NE 7 G 8 60°F 67°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 32 mi50 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 1009.5 hPa
FSNM2 32 mi50 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 63°F 1009.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 36 mi50 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 69°F1009.2 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 36 mi50 min E 1 G 1 64°F 65°F1009.8 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi50 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 61°F 69°F1008.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 43 mi50 min ENE 6 G 8.9
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi50 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 61°F 67°F1009.4 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD16 mi92 minN 010.00 miOvercast65°F57°F78%1009.8 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD18 mi88 minE 510.00 miLight Drizzle62°F57°F86%1009.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD19 mi56 minSE 410.00 miOvercast63°F55°F77%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmNW3NW3NW5N3N4N6NE7NE5E5NE5NE5NE6SE10SE4SE3SE8CalmSE5
1 day agoSE11E9SE10SE10E6NE4NE3NE4NE3E6E4E4E7CalmE3SE5CalmCalmSE6SE4SE6SE4CalmCalm
2 days agoE10E11E11E8SE10E5E8E7E8E10E9E6E4SE4E6SE7SE8E8SE9SE9SE9SE11SE12SE14

Tide / Current Tables for Fairhaven, Herring Bay, Maryland
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Fairhaven
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:08 AM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:07 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:21 PM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:22 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.41.51.51.31.10.80.60.40.30.40.50.811.110.90.70.50.30.20.20.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:43 AM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:20 AM EDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:19 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:01 PM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.40.811.10.90.50.1-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.30.10.40.50.50.3-0-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.