Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Friendship, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:46PM Thursday December 13, 2018 2:53 PM EST (19:53 UTC) Moonrise 11:43AMMoonset 10:36PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 1239 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
This afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Rain likely.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 1239 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over new england will slide off the coast tonight. Low pressure near the arklatex region will travel through the tennessee valley on Friday, nearing the waters Friday night into Saturday, bringing unsettled weather. Conditions will remain unsettled into Sunday before high pressure builds over the waters early next week. Small craft advisory conditions likely for portions of the waters Friday night through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendship, MD
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location: 38.75, -76.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 131531 aaa
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1031 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will linger over the region through tonight. A
large area of low pressure will impact the area at the end of
the week through this weekend bringing widespread rain and
potential for flooding. High pressure will return early next
week.

Near term through tonight
Mid-upper level ridge will build over the area today through fri
leading to a warm up. Temperatures could get close to 50f in
some places today. It appears we'll see more Sun than
anticipated earlier. No precipitation is expected.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Models continue to trend later with the arrival of
precipitation on Friday, favoring the afternoon and evening
hours for much of the area. This will be in response to a large
area of low pressure nearing the tennessee valley, allowing rain
to overspread the region Friday afternoon and persisting into
Saturday. Rainfall Friday night and into Saturday morning will
be heavy at times as precipitable water values will range
between 1.25 to 1.50 inches. With the recent snowfall over the
southern tier of the cwa, and likely unreceptive soils, the
potential for flooding will exist. Areas along and east of the
blue ridge, primarily over central virginia where snow pack
remains will be favored. A flood watch may be required later
today or tonight should model trends continue with similar
solutions and QPF holds serve.

The heaviest rainfall will taper off Saturday morning as the
first wave of precipitation moves off to the north and east.

However, with a closed upper low and surface low remaining just
off to our southwest, additional showers are expected Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night. By daybreak Sunday, some locations
may be nearing two inches of received rainfall. This will yield
a continued threat for localized flooding. Despite the cloudy
and rainy conditions, one silver lining will be the milder
temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s, while lows Saturday night will bottom out in the
upper 30s to middle 40s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Gfs and ECMWF have been slowly converging on the track of the
upper level low which will pass eastward into the atlantic
Sunday into Sunday night. With the GFS trending a bit south and
the ec trending north somewhat, the odds that the upper system
and its resultant surface low cross our region with more rain
are increasing. Adjusted pops upward to widespread likely on
Sunday due to this. Temps look likely to be stuck in the 40s
thanks to this low track, though that is close to normal for mid
december. Both GFS and ec send the system east of us into the
western atlantic Sunday night, so there is reasonable confidence
that we will see a drying trend by then. Monday will actually be
a bit milder with some Sun before a canadian cold front crosses
the region later in the day, resulting in a brief cool down for
Tuesday. Winds with the front could be 30-40 mph late Monday,
something we will need to watch. By Wednesday, temps start to
rebound with sunshine as high pressure sits over the region.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions expected over the terminals through tonight as
high pressure ridging maintains dry conditions and light winds.

MVFR ifr CIGS move into the region on Friday as low pressure
approaches from the southwest and rain overspreads the area
Friday afternoon and evening. Ifr vis CIGS will persist Friday
night and into Saturday as rain, heavy at times, crosses the
terminals. An upper low will approach to the southwest Saturday
night, with continued rain chances and periods of ifr lifr
vis cigs.

Sub-vfr CIGS and vis likely linger at times Sunday as low
pressure meanders across the region, resulting in low clouds and
rain showers. Conditions will improve back toVFR by Monday as
the system moves out.

Marine
Sub SCA conditions expected through the day on Friday as high
pressure over new england retreats eastward through tonight and
a weak gradient presides over the waters. Low pressure will
approach from the southwest late Friday into Saturday, bringing
unsettled weather over the waters, while SCA conditions
appearing likely for at least portions of the waters Friday
night and into Saturday. Unsettled weather will continue thru
Saturday night with periods of rain and reduced visibilities.

Winds are forecast to remain just below SCA criteria Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night, with gusts on the order of 10 to
15 knots.

Low pressure in the vicinity Sunday will result in a risk of
continued gusty winds and small craft advisory conditions,
though this will ebb at times as the pressure gradient changes
while the low passes. After potentially relaxing Sunday night,
winds likely pick up again later on Monday as a cold front
crosses the region. Latest GFS indicates gale potential with
this front, but ec is a bit weaker, so another round of sca
conditions are the best bet right now.

Climate
Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore
setting the annual record already. Here are the current rankings
for wettest year on record (through december 12th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.78 inches (2018)
4. 60.09 inches (1878)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 65.67 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 61.30 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Lfr
short term... Bkf
long term... Rcm
aviation... Rcm lfr
marine... Rcm lfr
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 12 mi53 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 42°F1027.1 hPa (-0.5)36°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 17 mi53 min 43°F 1026 hPa (-0.3)
CPVM2 19 mi59 min 44°F 37°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 26 mi53 min S 8.9 G 12 43°F 1026.4 hPa (-0.8)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 26 mi53 min NW 1 G 2.9 53°F 40°F1025.8 hPa (-0.8)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 28 mi59 min 49°F 41°F1026.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 30 mi53 min ESE 6 G 7 45°F 42°F1025.6 hPa (-0.8)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 32 mi53 min ESE 9.9 G 11 45°F 1026.4 hPa (-0.3)
FSNM2 32 mi65 min ESE 11 G 12 45°F 1026 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 36 mi59 min S 8 G 8.9 47°F 44°F1026.2 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 36 mi53 min N 6 G 7 42°F 40°F1027 hPa (-0.0)
NCDV2 39 mi59 min E 2.9 G 2.9 44°F 41°F1025.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 43 mi65 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi53 min S 6 G 7 43°F 42°F1026.7 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD16 mi59 minESE 610.00 miFair47°F35°F63%1026.5 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD18 mi57 minE 410.00 miFair51°F30°F44%1025.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD19 mi73 minS 310.00 miFair48°F35°F62%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6S5S6S5S7S8S7S6S5SE7SE8SE8SE8SE8S8S4S4S5S7S3SE8SE10SE8SE6
1 day agoNW53W3CalmCalmCalmW5NW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmN3NW6NW6N6NW6Calm
2 days agoN8NE9N6N4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3NW4NW3N5NW5NW3NW4N4NW3CalmNW3CalmN3N5NW5NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Fairhaven, Herring Bay, Maryland
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Fairhaven
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:41 AM EST     0.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:19 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:03 PM EST     0.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:37 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.60.60.50.40.20.1000.10.30.50.70.90.90.90.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 03:24 AM EST     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:56 AM EST     0.60 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:40 PM EST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:33 PM EST     0.67 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.4-00.30.50.60.50.30-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.20.50.60.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.