Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Henlopen Acres, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:41PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 11:28 AM EST (16:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:03AMMoonset 9:34PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ454 Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 945 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..Wind variable less than 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ400 945 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will build into the area for today and tonight. A low pressure system will move through the region on Thursday. An area of low pressure will track through the deep south on Friday and into the mid atlantic by this weekend. High pressure will then return early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henlopen Acres, DE
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location: 38.78, -75.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 121119
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
619 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the area for today and tonight. A low
pressure system will move through the region on Thursday. An area of
low pressure will track through the deep south on Friday and into
the mid atlantic by this weekend. High pressure will then return
early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Cold front is through the region, and any light snow or flurries
have pretty much dried up. Going through the morning, clouds
will scatter out as high pressure noses in from the west. Plenty
of sunshine on tap thereafter. NW winds 5-10 mph, becoming west
around 5 mph later this afternoon.

Highs will be a few degrees short of normal, generally topping
off in the lower 30s in the poconos to the upper 30s north and
west of the fall line, and in the lower 40s elsewhere.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
High pressure off the mid-atlantic coast continues to drift
offshore this evening. Meanwhile, weak surface low pressure with
a mid-level closed low and several strong shortwaves passing
through the great lakes will move into western ny pa after
midnight tonight, then this low passes north of the region
during the day Thursday. Some light snow will move into western
portions of the forecast area prior to daybreak Thursday, and
then snow moves into most of the region Thursday morning.

Going through Thursday afternoon, winds become east-southeast.

Onshore flow will allow for warmer air to filter into the
region, and snow mixes with and changes to rain from south to
north during the afternoon. Temps should remain cold enough in
the southern poconos to keep precip all snow.

For the most part, less than an inch of snow will fall along
and north of the i-95 corridor, but with colder temperatures in
the poconos, up to an inch or so of snow accumulation is
possible there.

Highs on Thursday warm into the low to mid 40s in SE nj and
delmarva, and in the upper 30s to low 40s in most of northern nj
and southeast pa. Highs in the southern poconos and far
northern nj will top off in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Thursday night... An upper low open trough will exit to the east of
the region Thursday night. Model soundings show moist low levels
(dry upper levels so no ice in the snow growth zone), especially
across the southern poconos and portions of the lehigh valley and
northwestern new jersey. Could see some patchy drizzle occur through
the evening and into early Friday and have added it to the forecast.

With temperatures dropping, some areas may see some patchy freezing
drizzle.

Friday through Sunday... The next system of the extended starts to
develop in the deep south. This system starts to track up into the
southeastern united states by Friday night. As the low makes its way
to the northeast, a secondary low forms along the carolina coast.

The gfs, canadian, and the ECMWF show this low developing out ahead
of the stronger low to its west. But that is where the similarities
start to end. The ECMWF takes the coastal low and makes it more
dominant, weakening the inland low. This solution would have more
rain impact us from Friday night through Saturday and leave Sunday
mostly dry as the inland low tracks to the east and offshore (with
the center of the low remaining to our south). The canadian keeps
the inland low suppressed to the south as the associated upper low
cuts off. The coastal low it moves quickly to the northeast, drying
us out by later Saturday, leaving Sunday dry. The GFS is by far the
wettest of these three models. It takes the coastal low up into our
area Friday night and Saturday and then takes the inland low on a
more northerly track into our area by later Saturday into Sunday.

With such diverse output from the this model run, confidence remains
fairly low. We continue to keep the highest chances for rain from
Friday night through Saturday and then only leave a slight chance
for some rain on Sunday. One good thing is all the guidance is
showing a warming trend so confidence is growing that we will see
mostly, if not all, rain with this event.

Monday through Tuesday... This period looks to be fairly quiet. The
gfs shows a cold front dropping down from the northwest later on
Monday while the ECMWF keeps any boundaries to the north of our
area. The GFS also shows a much deeper and stronger closed upper low
crossing the area while the ECMWF doesn't show much more than decent
trough rotating through. A few light showers may occur later Monday
but confidence is low as the models have widely differing opinions
on what to expect. For now, we will keep Monday dry and see if
things clear up a bit over the next few days. However, even if a
boundary moves through and is mostly dry, one thing the models are
consistent with this far out is that colder air will be arriving for
Tuesday. High pressure builds into the area on Tuesday and will
persist through the middle of the week.

Aviation 11z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Sct-bkn 6000-7000 feet, becoming few250 shortly
after sunrise. NW winds 10 kt or less, becoming lgt vrb late
this afternoon.

Tonight...VFR initially. CIGS lowering to around 5000 feet by
daybreak Thursday. Some light snow possible at krdg kabe after
09z with MVFR or lower conditions. Lgt vrb winds.

Thursday... MVFR ifr conditions in light snow in the morning,
then snow mixes with and changes to rain from south to north
during the day. Precip may stay as snow in krdg kabe for most of
the day. Light east-southeast winds.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Light east
winds. Patchy drizzle freezing drizzle possible at kabe krdg.

Friday... MainlyVFR early with conditions deteriorating towards
midday. Rain will develop by late morning and overspread the
terminals through the afternoon. East to southeast winds less
than 10 knots.

Friday night and Saturday... MVFR ifr conditions expected.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain. East to northeast winds
around 5 to 10 knots, becoming more northerly later Saturday.

Sunday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Northeast winds around
10 knots.

Marine
Sca remains up on the ocean waters until early this afternoon due to
nw winds gusting to 25 kt along with 5-6 ft seas. By this afternoon,
winds diminish, and seas subside for the rest of the day. Sub-sca
conditions on tap tonight through Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected. Southeast winds will increase through Friday and may
approach advisory levels late.

Friday night and Sunday... Small craft conditions likely. Seas will
build reaching 5 feet on the southern waters by late Friday night.

Winds will increase and exceed 25 knots with gale force gusts
possible late Saturday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
anz450>455.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Meola
aviation... Meola mps
marine... Meola mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 4 mi47 min N 14 G 15 40°F 41°F1023.2 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 14 mi41 min NW 12 G 18 40°F 41°F1022.5 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 15 mi71 min 1023.3 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 28 mi39 min 50°F4 ft1022.9 hPa (+1.8)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 30 mi119 min W 4.1 40°F 1023 hPa25°F
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 31 mi47 min N 8 G 11 41°F 44°F1023.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 40 mi41 min NW 12 G 13 38°F 41°F1022.5 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ18 mi34 minNW 9 G 1510.00 miFair41°F26°F55%1023.2 hPa
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE18 mi35 minN 610.00 miFair45°F23°F42%1023.1 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN36NW4W55W3CalmS3SW4W4CalmSW444W3CalmCalmCalmW3W4Calm35N6
1 day agoNE10N9N10
G19
N9N6N4NW3NW3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3NW3N4N4N6N4N4N5N4N4
2 days agoN9N9N6N7N8N5N5N7N6NE10NE8NE6NE7N9N8N5N7N5N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Henlopen, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Cape Henlopen
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Wed -- 05:09 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:33 AM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:04 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.82.21.40.70.40.61.222.93.74.24.23.83.12.21.30.60.40.511.72.53

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:48 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:53 AM EST     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:52 AM EST     1.19 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:01 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:33 PM EST     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:39 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:34 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:35 PM EST     0.91 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.1-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.30.30.71.11.210.60-0.5-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.30.20.60.90.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.