Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Upper Marlboro, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:28 PM EDT (17:28 UTC) Moonrise 12:55AMMoonset 3:37PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 1103 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers late this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1103 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will pass through the area today before a cold front approaches Friday. The cold front will then pass through Friday night into early Saturday. High pressure will build to the north and west of the waters while a pressure trough will remain nearby for later Saturday and Sunday. The high pressure will shift offshore early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Upper Marlboro, MD
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location: 38.8, -76.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 171526
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1126 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
A warm front is crossing the area today. A cold front will
approach from the west Friday before passing through Friday
night. Weak high pressure will build into the area for the
weekend before moving offshore early next week. A stronger cold
front will pass through the area during the middle portion of
next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Fog has dissipated and the warm front is slowly advancing north
back across the region, providing for a warm and humid day.

Partly sunny skies will continue for the time being, but will
likely give way to more clouds than Sun this afternoon. Highs
today should reach the upper 80s to around 90f. This combined
with surface dew points in the low 70s will allow for the
development of 1000-1500 j kg of mlcape, especially west of i-95
where warm front will clear first. While CAPE profiles are not
that conducive for widespread strong to severe convection with
tall skinny CAPE depicted, 0-6km shear of near 30 knots and the
presence of a warm frontal boundary and its directional shear
along it, may be enough for a few isolated strong to locally
severe thunderstorms. Convection-allowing models differ on
evolution and coverage, but highest threat area appears to be
west of the metros. In addition, precipitable water values
increase markedly as warm front lifts northward, with values
near or exceeding 2" by late in the day. This combined with
11-12k foot warm cloud depths, wet antecedent conditions, and
the potential for slow movement repeated convection sets up the
possibility for an isolated flood risk as well.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
For tonight, warm and muggy conditions will persist. Convection
from this afternoon may continue to propagate eastward, with
additional scattered development also possible as low level jet
moves towards the region overnight. Potential for heavy rain
will exist with any showers storms overnight as well. Lows
tonight low to mid 70s. Any breaks in the clouds will also
promote patchy fog development given the high humidity.

Area of low pressure will push into southern canada on Friday,
with its trailing cold front entering the mid-atlantic states
during the day. This will serve as another focus for scattered
showers thunderstorms during the day Friday. A severe threat
will exist again on Friday, with potentially greater
coverage more intense storms than today. Temperatures and low
level moisture will surge out ahead of the front, leading to the
development of 1500- 3000 j kg of mlcape, with 30-35 knots of
shear moving overhead. In addition to the severe threat, flash
flooding is also a concern as precipitable water values surge
over 2", possibly exceeding 2.25", and potential for training
convection exists. Highs reach around 90f to the low 90s. With
high dew points, there exists a potential for spotty heat
advisory criteria as well. Convection will push eastward and
gradually wane Friday night.

Model guidance has come into better agreement regarding
progression of the front for Saturday. It now appears more
likely that the front will clear most of the region before
stalling out along the atlantic coastline and into southeastern
virginia. This will provide for a drier day Saturday, although a
few isolated- scattered showers storms are still possible,
mainly near the front, as well as in the higher terrain as an
upper trough moves across later in the day. Highs will still be
in the upper 80s, although dew points will drop back into the
60s behind the front.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
High pressure will remain overhead Sunday... Bringing dry
conditions for most areas along with warm conditions. A
downsloping low-level flow along with some sunshine will cause
max temps to range from the mid to upper 80s in northern
maryland to the lower 90s in central virginia.

High pressure will slowly move offshore Sunday night through
Monday. A return flow will develop and this will allow for
humidity to increase along with very warm conditions. The
increased humidity may trigger some showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage should be isolated to scattered since
there will not be a strong lifting mechanism. A southerly flow
will continue Tuesday with more warm and humid condtions along
with isolated to scattered showers thunderstorms.

A cold front will approach the area from the north Wednesday
before passing through Wednesday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the boundary... Especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. More warm and humid
conditions will persist ahead of the boundary... But noticeably
cooler and less humid conditions are expected behind the
boundary.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
Low CIGS linger near bwi mtn, but generally they should break,
with scattered to broken clouds around 5k ft expected this aft.

Isolated to scattered showers thunderstorms then develop this
afternoon, possibly lingering into tonight, and some may bring
heavy rain gusty winds. Some patchy fog and low clouds are
possible again tonight.

Additional showers thunderstorms are then likely Friday
afternoon evening with potential additional reductions and gusty
winds. Conditions improve for Saturday.

High pressure will remain over the terminals Sunday.VFR
conditions are likely. The high will move offshore Sunday night
into Monday. Warm advection may bring an MVFR deck of lower
clouds later Sunday night into Monday. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible... But coverage should remain isolated
to scattered.

Marine
South winds will be on the increase later today, tonight, and
through Friday ahead of a frontal system. A small craft advisory
is in effect for portions of the central chesapeake and lower
tidal potomac from late this afternoon and through Friday
evening. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible both today and Friday, mainly in the
afternoon evening, and special marine warnings may be necessary.

High pressure will remain just to the north and west Sunday
while a weak surface trough remains over the waters. Light winds
are expected. The high will move offshore Sunday night into
Monday and a return southerly flow will develop. The southerly
flow will continue through Tuesday. Increased moisture from the
southerly flow may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms... But
coverage should remain isolated to scattered.

Tides coastal flooding
Elevated water levels continue this morning. However... The next
high tide will be the lower of the two so no minor flooding is
expected today.

The high tide cycle tonight into early Friday will be the higher
of the two. Also... Southerly winds may increase a bit ahead of a
cold front over the ohio valley. This may cause minor flooding
for sensitive areas such as annapolis... Straits point and
possibly washington dc. Coastal flood advisories may be needed.

The southerly flow will continue through Friday evening before
turning offshore behind the boundary. More minor flooding is
possible with the high tide cycle Friday night into early
Saturday for sensitive areas. Anomalies should decrease later
Saturday due to the offshore flow.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 am edt
Saturday for anz533-534-537-541-543.

Synopsis... Bjl rcm
near term... Mm rcm
short term... Mm
long term... Bjl
aviation... Bjl mm rcm
marine... Bjl mm rcm
tides coastal flooding... Bjl rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 1 mi118 min SE 6 79°F 1016 hPa70°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 17 mi28 min S 8 G 8 80°F 80°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 17 mi40 min S 8 G 9.9 84°F 80°F1014.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 18 mi40 min 85°F 1015.5 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 18 mi28 min S 9.7 G 14 81°F 81°F1 ft1015.8 hPa (-0.9)
CPVM2 22 mi40 min 82°F 77°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 23 mi28 min S 14 G 16 81°F 81°F1 ft1016.8 hPa (-0.9)
44043 - Patapsco, MD 30 mi28 min S 7.8 G 7.8 81°F 82°F1016.9 hPa (-0.8)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 31 mi40 min ESE 13 G 14 81°F 1015.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 33 mi40 min S 14 G 16 79°F 1017.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 33 mi40 min S 9.9 G 12 82°F 82°F1015.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi40 min SSE 8 G 11 83°F 82°F
NCDV2 37 mi46 min ESE 9.9 G 11 83°F 84°F1015 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 38 mi40 min 86°F 81°F1017.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 38 mi40 min N 4.1 G 7 81°F 80°F1016.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 47 mi40 min SSE 13 G 15

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD8 mi30 minS 810.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F74°F70%1016 hPa
College Park Airport, MD16 mi40 minWSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F73°F64%1015.6 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA17 mi36 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F75°F70%1015.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD18 mi34 minSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F77°F80%1016 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD20 mi40 minSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F73°F74%1016.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD24 mi43 minSSE 87.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F71°F59%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW5N4N6E3N5E3CalmE4E3SE5SE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS6S4SW5S8
1 day agoSW4CalmNW3N5N4NE5E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW3NW5N3NW6
2 days agoE4CalmSE3E3E3NE4E3CalmNE3N3CalmSE4CalmSE4SE3S4CalmCalmS3S3SE3S3CalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for Hills Bridge (Route 4), Patuxent River, Maryland
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Hills Bridge (Route 4)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:58 AM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:56 AM EDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:59 PM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.64.24.44.33.93.42.92.41.91.51.41.62.12.62.82.62.31.81.30.90.70.711.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:28 AM EDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:19 AM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     0.39 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.9110.80.50-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.300.30.40.30.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.