Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
National Harbor, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:54PM Friday November 16, 2018 5:50 PM EST (22:50 UTC) Moonrise 1:44PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 337 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Tue..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 337 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley today through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and a weak cold front may pass through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near National Harbor, MD
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location: 38.8, -77.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 161954
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
254 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the ohio valley over the
weekend. A cold front will approach from the great lakes early
next week.

Near term through tonight
Low pressure continues to pull away toward nova scotia this
afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. As the
gradient weakens, winds will diminish tonight, which will allow
for temperatures to fall below freezing in most areas away from
the city centers and along the tidal waters. Therefore, any
lingering meltwater could refreeze on untreated surfaces. Some
high res guidance is trying to develop low clouds tonight, but
wonder if model snowpack is resulting in too much boundary
layer moisture. Will keep forecast partly mostly clear.

A bit of a pressure trough lingers along the spine of the
appalachians. This convergence may combine with shallow upslope
moisture to produce light precipitation along the allegheny
front tonight, though it is far from certain. Flurries or
freezing drizzle are possible, but am not confident enough to
include in the forecast.

Short term Saturday through Saturday night
The center of high pressure will move over the area on Saturday
and off to the east by Sunday morning. Weather will be dry but
clouds will begin increasing Saturday night ahead of the next
system. Temperatures will continue below normal with highs in
the 40s and low 50s and lows near or below freezing.

A weak front -- lacking forcing and moisture -- will slide into
the area Sunday and Sunday night. The daytime hours will likely
see increased clouds, with any chance of precipitation holding
off until Sunday night. The highest chance will be along the pa
border to the allegheny front. Lapse rates aren't very steep, so
most areas would be rain and only the coldest areas potentially
seeing some snowflakes. Regardless, any precipitation will be
very light. Highs will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s, with
clouds holding low temperatures above freezing in most areas.

Long term Monday through Thursday
All in all, the long term period looks fairly quiet. On Monday, a
longwave trough will be centered over hudson bay, while an upper
level ridge will reside across the western conus. A weak mid-level
disturbance displaced well to the south of the longer wave trough
will approach the area on Monday, pushing a weak surface cold front
through our area. With limited moisture ahead of the front and the
best forcing for ascent displaced well to our north, little if any
precipitation is expected. The best chance for a few showers Monday
afternoon through Monday night will be in the typically favored
upslope regions to the west of the blue ridge.

Another shortwave disturbance embedded in northwesterly flow will
approach the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Once again,
little to no precipitation is expected, with upslope areas having
the highest chance for a (snow) shower or two. Both deterministic
and ensemble guidance are in good agreement that high pressure will
build overhead for Wednesday and Thursday, leading to mostly sunny
skies.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Northwest flow stratocumulus is dissipating, soVFR conditions
are likely through this evening. Wind gusts of 20+ kt will
subside by sunset. High-resolution guidance is trying to develop
areas of low clouds tonight into Saturday, but am doubting this
solution as model soundings look too saturated (perhaps due to
modeled snowpack). Included a few sct group in the tafs to
account for the uncertainty. There may be a better chance for
lower clouds on Sunday as the next system approaches, and a few
light showers could near mrb by Sunday night.

Vfr conditions are expected through the long term period.

Marine
W NW flow is continuing to produce small craft advisory
conditions on the waters, but the winds are gradually decreasing
as low pressure pulls away and high pressure builds in from the
west. The SCA gradually tapers off by midday Saturday, although
it's quite possible some segments could be cancelled early. A
weak front approaches late in the weekend, but overall the
pressure gradient remains weak, and additional scas are not
expected this weekend.

Quiet weather conditions are expected over the waters through the
long term period, with sub-sca level winds in the forecast each
day.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 15th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.53 inches (2018)
5. 58.17 inches (1886)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 63.01 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
3. 62.35 inches (1889)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.15 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
4. 58.09 inches (1996)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz530-531-
538-539.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz535-
536-542.

Small craft advisory until noon est Saturday for anz533-534-
541-543.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Saturday for anz532-537-
540.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Kjp
aviation... Ads kjp
marine... Ads kjp
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 5 mi33 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 48°F 47°F1014.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 17 mi141 min W 5.1 53°F 1012 hPa34°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 32 mi51 min WNW 8 G 8 47°F 51°F1014.6 hPa (+1.7)33°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 32 mi33 min 44°F 1013.9 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 33 mi27 min N 5.8 G 5.8 46°F 51°F1014.8 hPa
NCDV2 33 mi39 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 50°F 47°F1013.7 hPa
CPVM2 37 mi33 min 46°F 35°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 37 mi31 min 52°F 1014.5 hPa
FSNM2 39 mi33 min WNW 8.9 G 11 1014.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi33 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 45°F 1014.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi39 min NNW 4.1 G 11 45°F 52°F1013.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 44 mi33 min WNW 6 G 8 50°F 1014.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 45 mi33 min WSW 7 G 8.9 50°F 53°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA4 mi59 minW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy49°F30°F50%1014 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD9 mi55 minWNW 410.00 miFair47°F30°F54%1014 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA9 mi55 minW 510.00 miFair49°F34°F58%1014.2 hPa
College Park Airport, MD14 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair44°F32°F62%1013.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD24 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair41°F32°F70%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from DCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE19
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NW8W9W7W7SW7NW6NW13
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1 day agoNE9N7NE7NE10NE12NE10NE10NE10NE10E11NE8E10NE13NE10NE12NE14
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NE14NE13NE12NE16NE15NE18N16NE15
G22
2 days agoN11N7NW7NW6W6W6N9N14N10NW10N10N9NW9N12N12NW12NW9NW10NW7NW7N10NW12N6N6

Tide / Current Tables for Alexandria, Virginia
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Alexandria
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:07 AM EST     2.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:40 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:48 PM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:51 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.52.62.52.11.610.60.40.30.61.11.82.22.52.52.31.81.20.70.50.40.51

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Washington, Maryland
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Fort Washington
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:52 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:25 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:33 PM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:36 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.22.32.11.71.30.80.50.30.30.61.21.722.22.21.91.510.60.40.40.61

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.