Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Michaels, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:28PM Tuesday July 17, 2018 1:25 AM EDT (05:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:05AMMoonset 10:52PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1031 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms late this evening, then a slight chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain over the atlantic through tonight. A cold front will approach the waters Tuesday before passing through Tuesday night. High pressure will build overhead Wednesday through Thursday before moving offshore Friday. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD
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location: 38.81, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 170133
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
933 pm edt Mon jul 16 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system moves across ontario and quebec tonight and
Tuesday. An associated strong cold front will cross our area Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. High pressure from the great lakes will
follow for Wednesday and remain over our area into Friday night. A
series of disturbances will then be across the mid-atlantic for the
upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
The mostly isolated convection has dissipated, as of 01z. The main
forcing was terrain and a sea breeze which was enhanced inland by
convective outflow. The boundary was well defined on radar however
it has dissipated now since is has moved well inland. As a result,
scaled the pops back accordingly for the remainder of this evening.

As we go through the overnight though, an amplifying upper-level
trough moves across the great lakes and the leading edge of the
height falls arrive into our northern and western areas. It appears
though the bulk of the forcing is farther to the west closer to the
cold front. Therefore some uncertainty exists on how much shower or
thunderstorm activity redevelops or arrives across mainly our
western zones late tonight. Some guidance suggest some convection
occurs mostly in portions of eastern pennsylvania to northern new
jersey late tonight while other guidance is dry. For now, carried
slight chance pops for the western areas (low chance pops for the
poconos) late tonight. The southerly flow at the surface diminishes
tonight and therefore patchy fog is possible given lots of low-level
moisture. We are more in the warm sector given a cold front to our
west (plus some more mid to high level clouds late), and therefore
any fog may be rather light limited and thus did not add to the
forecast at this time.

It will be a warm and rather muggy night ahead of a cold front (dew
points mostly in the 70s). The hourly temperature, dew point and
wind grids were adjusted based on the latest observations, then the
lamp guidance was also blended in to help assist. The cloud cover
has mostly dissipated outside of some cirrus. Some increase in the
clouds is anticipated through the night though especially across the
western areas as cloud debris arrives.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
The day may start with a few showers or thunderstorms across the
western areas, however an active afternoon is expected as an
amplifying upper-level trough approaches from the west and a surface
cold front arrives. The expectation of more clouds and eventually
widespread convection will result in a cooler day but still rather
humid. Did slow down the eastward increase in pops though through
about early afternoon.

The SPC maintained the i-95 corridor on westward in a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon. The guidance has
pwats of 2-2.25 inches, therefore quite a bit of moisture is
available. Given enough instability and where updrafts are able to
be more robust, frequent cloud to cloud lightning is a good
possibility. The low and mid level flow shear however ahead of the
cold front is somewhat limited, with this greatest to our north.

There should be some multicells though ahead of the front, and if
these can organize enough and generate a cold pool then local strong
surface wind gusts can occur. There is the potential for at least
some isolated severe thunderstorms, with locally damaging winds
(water loaded downdrafts) the main threat. The mid level flow is
more perpendicular to the cold front, therefore convection should be
on the move. Given the high pwats though, downpours could result in
localized flooding.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Tuesday night... The strong cold front will be moving offshore and
the showers and thunderstorms associated with it will be ending
across the region. Cooler and drier air will arrive across the nw
areas, but it may take until Wednesday to finally arrive across
delmarva and SRN nj. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s low
60s N W and mid upper 60s S e. Winds will become NW overnight at 5
to 10 mph.

Wednesday thru Friday... High pressure will be across the great
lakes Wednesday and it will build across the middle atlantic
Thursday before moving offshore Friday. The high will bring fair
weather along with seasonable temperatures. Highs will be in the
low mid 80s in most areas, but the overnight lows will be cool for
july with 50s across the north west and low mid 60s for DELMARVA and
srn nj. These lows will be around 5 degrees below normal.

Next weekend Monday... Unsettled with an unusually strong upper
trough moving towards the region. A deep south to southwest flow
aloft will become established and abundant moisture from the
south will arrive across the region. Showers and thunderstorms
will probably be around Sat thru mon, so we have kept the high
chance pops for the weekend. The latest nmb has some likely pops
for Sunday, so we went along an put those in the grids attm.

Locally heavy rains are possible, but we'll get more details
later this week before getting any more specific.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...VFR overall. An isolated shower or thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out mainly west of phl. Some MVFR visibilities due
to light fog is possible at some terminals overnight, however this
is of lower confidence. South to southwest winds less than 10 knots,
or even becoming locally light and variable to calm.

Tuesday... Local MVFR visibilities early due to light fog, otherwise
vfr for awhile. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
from west to east and become more widespread mainly in the afternoon
ahead of a cold front. There will be ceiling and especially
visibility restrictions (MVFR ifr) with the showers and
thunderstorms, and locally brief gusty winds may accompany some
stronger thunderstorms. South to southwest winds increasing to
around 10 knots, becoming west-northwest late in the afternoon at
rdg and abe and closer to the early evening farther east.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... Showers and thunderstorms ending from west to
east, withVFR returning. Patchy fog possible across delmarva
and southern new jersey.

Wednesday through Friday...VFR expected.

Friday night and Saturday... MostlyVFR. A few showers and
thunderstorms possible.

Marine
Tonight... Sub SCA conditions expected. Mainly SW winds 15 to 20 kt.

Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Tuesday... No headlines south of little egg inlet with SW gusts up to
20 kt and seas up to 4 feet. North of little egg, gusts up to 25 kt
and seas up to 5 feet are expected. A SCA has been issued north
of little egg between 12z Tue through 04z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... SCA diminishing and showers tstms ending from W to
e.

Wednesday thru Friday... Sub-sca with fair weather.

Friday night thru Saturday... Scattered showers and tstms.

Sca psbl.

Rip currents...

for Tuesday, opted to go with another moderate risk of rip
currents for both the new jersey and delaware beaches. This is
due to a lingering underlying southeasterly long period swell
(although it looks weaker than previous days), the seas building
some and a 10-25 mph south-southwest wind along the coast again
especially late morning through the afternoon.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday
night for anz450-451.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Gorse
short term... Gorse kruzdlo
long term... O'hara
aviation... Gorse o'hara
marine... Gorse kruzdlo o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi26 min S 12 G 14 81°F 80°F1014.4 hPa (+0.0)76°F
CPVM2 16 mi38 min 82°F 78°F
44063 - Annapolis 17 mi36 min SSW 9.7 G 12 81°F 1013.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 18 mi38 min 81°F 82°F1015.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 19 mi38 min 1013 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi36 min S 12 G 14 82°F 1014.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi116 min Calm 76°F 1014 hPa73°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 28 mi38 min S 5.1 G 7 81°F 83°F1013.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi38 min SSW 11 G 13 81°F 1014.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi38 min S 5.1 G 6 78°F 1013.1 hPa
FSNM2 33 mi38 min SSW 6 G 8.9 80°F 1013.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi38 min S 8.9 G 11 81°F 82°F1013.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi38 min SW 1 G 1.9 83°F1012.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 42 mi38 min S 15 G 18 81°F 85°F1014.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 43 mi38 min S 6 G 8.9 84°F1013.4 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi116 min S 4.1 79°F 1014 hPa78°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD7 mi37 minSSW 710.00 miFair82°F75°F81%1015.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD13 mi51 minS 910.00 miFair81°F77°F89%1013.5 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD19 mi32 minS 48.00 miFair83°F73°F74%1013.4 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD21 mi51 minS 410.00 miOvercast79°F75°F89%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW7W4CalmW4W5S8SW10
G16
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S9S10S9S7S7SW10SW6SW7SW7
1 day agoSW5SW6SW6W5SW6SW4SW9SW8SW9SW7W6CalmSE3SW8SW9W4SW5SW3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4SW3S5SW5SW8SW10
G16
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G17
SW7SW5S6S6S5S5SW5SW6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland
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St. Michaels
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Tue -- 02:49 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:48 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.70.50.50.60.91.31.71.921.81.51.20.90.60.40.30.50.81.21.61.71.71.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:01 AM EDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:32 PM EDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     0.91 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.30.10.50.80.90.90.60.1-0.4-0.8-1-1-0.8-0.400.50.80.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.