Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 3:06 AM   Moonset 3:08 PM

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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 205 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon - .
This afternoon - E winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with areas of drizzle. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming S late. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Mon - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 205 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through tonight before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Sunday night for portions of the waters.

FXUS61 KPHI 041812 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 212 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over New England will maintain an onshore flow through the weekend. A series of cold fronts approaches from the west, with the second (and stronger of the two) front stalling out nearby by early next week. The stalled front lifts north as a warm front at some point in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, bringing a return to above normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Latest analysis depicts a backdoor cold front extending from the Virginia capes northwestward toward western Pennsylvania and north across the eastern Great Lakes. Another cold front moving southeast from Canada is washing out over the eastern Great Lakes. A third cold front is pushing southeast across the western Great Lakes and north/central Plains. Aloft, a ridge straddles our region north to south, but several weak shortwaves are located over the upper Ohio Valley and southeastern US, with more further west over the central Plains.

Weak warm advection above the cool marine layer will allow showers to continue through Sunday, but the main mid and upper level forcing will remain mostly to our west in central PA.
Thus, expect relatively dry conditions near the immediate coast, with the bulk of precip near Chesapeake Bay and across western Chester, Berks and the Poconos through Sunday afternoon. That said, enough shortwave energy finally pushes eastward over the region by then to allow more organized showers to cross much of the remainder of the region, so have POPs maxing out Sunday afternoon, but even then, still keep them below categorical from I-95 south and east. QPF looks relatively light given the long duration as well, with less than an inch area-wide and less than a half inch from I-95 corridor on south and east, with almost nothing near the coast. All that being said, it still won't be very nice, as the persistent easterly flow will keep skies cloudy and temps cool, mostly 40s to near 50 at night and 50s and 60s during the day. The warm front does try to lift northward late on Sunday, so that gives areas from Philly south the opportunity to approach (but not reach) normal, but it'll be a struggle.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A cold front approaches from the west on Sunday. With a slower approach, showers will mainly be north and west of the Philly metro through the morning, before pushing over the rest of the area through the afternoon and evening. The marine airmass in place will keep things stable, and really not expecting much in terms of thunder or heavy rainfall Sunday/Sunday night. Rainfall amounts will generally be around a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain, spread out over a rather large period, so not expecting much in terms of hydro concerns. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s/low 60s, though some spots in the Delmarva will get into the upper 60s/low 70s. Temperatures won't drop much on Sunday Night, likely staying in the 50s.

For Monday, temperatures moderate as a weak west/southwesterly flow takes over. The first of several shortwaves next week is expected to traverse the area, with some showers and thunderstorms potentially developing in the afternoon and evening. Some of the model soundings show decent instability with marginal shear, so can't rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm late Monday. However, not expecting the threat to be widespread at all. Will continue to monitor as we get in range of CAM guidance. Best chance to see any convection will be over Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s/low 80s on Monday with mid to upper 50s/low 60s on Monday Night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Unsettled conditions are expected for most of the week as a rather progressive pattern will be in place. Several shortwaves are expected to pass over the region. Lift will also be aided by a stalled boundary bisecting the area that will meander for the middle and end of next week. The front looks to venture northward on Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in a period of above normal temperatures with upper 70s/low 80s expected. With a relatively warm and moist airmass in place, incoming shortwaves could potentially spark some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday/Wednesday PM. Wednesday afternoon/evening looks to be the most active in terms of convective weather, though too early to see if severe weather is on the table.

The stalled boundary retreats southward towards the end of the week with onshore flow likely taking over, at least along the coastal plain. Depending on where this stalled boundary sets up will have implications on temperatures and thunderstorm potential on Thursday/Friday. Areas near and east of the front will be under the influence of the marine layer with cooler and more stable air, while areas west of the boundary are more unstable with warmer temperatures. A deepening trough will begin to move into the Mid- Atlantic, with a series of shortwaves/frontal systems moving through both Thursday/Friday.
Both days will feature temperatures near/below normal, depending on where this lingering boundary sets up.

Important to note that there remains a lot of uncertainty with the long-term forecast as models tend to struggle with a progressive pattern like this, and the placement of this boundary that will hang around through next week. As mentioned before, where that boundary sets up will have large implications on the forecast. We look to potentially shake this unsettled pattern once a sweeping cold front comes through late next week/early next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR to MVFR with spotty showers. Best conditions around KTTN where showers will struggle longest to reach. Winds easterly 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...dropping to IFR cigs most of the area, but not much reduction in vsby except in showers. Showers common western terminals, minimal if any eastern terminals, but low cigs likely regardless. Winds remaining mostly east 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...IFR cigs most of the day, with IFR or low MVFR vsby likely by afternoon esp where showers most common, which will be western terminals. Winds remaining mostly east 5-10 kts.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low ceilings.
Reduced visibility likely with showers.

Monday through Monday Night...Conditions gradually improve as the day goes on, likely back to VFR, though some showers/thunderstorms develop for the afternoon/evening, with restrictions possible if any storms move over the terminals.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible with 20-40% chance of SHRA.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible (30-50%) with scattered showers/thunderstorms expected, especially in the afternoon/evening.

MARINE
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through Sunday. Ocean waves 2-4ft with easterly winds 10-15 kts and a few gusts up to 20 kts. Intervals of reduced vsby in spotty showers.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...No long-fused marine headlines anticipated, though periods of showers/thunderstorms possible on the waters.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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St. Michaels
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Sat -- 01:37 AM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:39 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:01 PM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:45 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sat -- 02:37 AM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:58 AM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:59 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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