Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Basye, VA
May 13, 2024 6:42 PM EDT (22:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 9:45 AM Moonset 12:21 AM |
ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 435 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Rest of this afternoon - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Wed night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day. Showers likely with a chance of tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 435 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will push southeast of the waters tonight before the next low pressure system approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional waves of low pressure and quick moving fronts will pass through the region Friday into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday through Friday.
high pressure will push southeast of the waters tonight before the next low pressure system approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional waves of low pressure and quick moving fronts will pass through the region Friday into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday through Friday.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 131746 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 146 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
A slow moving low pressure system approaches from the west tonight, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, and below normal temperatures. Drier weather returns Thursday before another storm system brings the threat for showers and storms Friday into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Dry and seasonal conditions for the rest of today into most of tonight as high pressure over the area moves away this evening.
Temperatures in the 70s this afternoon drop down to the mid 50s to low 60s tonight. Cloud cover increases from southwest to northeast tonight as an area of low pressure approaches from the west.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Unsettled weather returns to the area Tuesday and Wednesday as a broad broad upper trough and surface low slowly track eastward across the area. Showers should be more scattered in nature, although there could be a few periods of steadier rain. Instability appears to be rather limited Tuesday, with the best chance of any thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge. If anything, there may be a better opportunity for some elevated rumbles of thunder Tuesday night. Wednesday brings greater instability across the southwestern half of the area, where there may be a better chance for some breaks of sun.
Rain chances finally decrease Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the surface low moves across eastern VA toward the Delmarva and out to sea. Some showers could linger if the upper low is slower to depart the area, particularly for those along/east of I-95.
There may be a few opportunities for locally heavier rain: (1) with southeasterly upslope flow into the central Virginia Blue Ridge on Tuesday, (2) north of the surface low track Tuesday night, and (3)
within the higher instability airmass Wednesday when flow will be light under the upper trough. Any risk of flooding appears to be marginal and dependent on multiple or prolonged periods of heavier rain. Forecast totals range from 0.50-1.00" north of US-50, and around 1-2" south toward Central Virginia. The threat for severe thunderstorms appears to be low through the period.
Widespread cloud cover and rainfall keeps daytime temperatures below normal through mid week as highs only reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows settle in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure and the resultant upper level trough will pivot off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday while brief mid-level ridging settles in from the central Appalachians region. This will allow for a brief reprieve in shower and thunderstorm activity before things ramp up again later in the workweek.
Unfortunately the calmer weather conditions will be short-lived with the next upper level trough and low pressure system set to approach from the Ohio River Valley/Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday.
With that said, model guidance continues to show subtle discrepancies in regards to to the timing of this system and placement of it's associated surface fronts across the region. Most of the recent 00z guidance suggests an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon and night as a warm front lifts through the area. A slow moving cold front will immediately follow this boundary Saturday into Saturday night bringing with it additional showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather does not appear to be a concern at this point although one or two strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out if CAPE and shear are maximized.
Localized flooding could be the bigger concern given repetitive rounds of rain throughout the week and rich moisture flooding in along the slow moving warm front Friday into Friday night.
Upper level ridging tries to build back into the area Sunday bringing slightly drier conditions. Another front will follow with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday next week. Temperatures throughout the extended forecast period will remain at or slightly below normal for the middle of May.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions through tonight as high pressure over the area exits to the east, and an area of low pressure approaches from the west.
Clouds begin to increase in coverage and lower tonight, though should remain VFR until around sunrise Tuesday.
Low MVFR to IFR CIGs quickly build in from the southwest at CHO early Tuesday morning, and eventually reach the other terminals by the afternoon. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday evening, with on-and-off showers continuing into Tuesday night. The low clouds, some reduced visibility due to mist and rain continue Wednesday morning as the area of low pressure moves just south of the area.
Conditions dry out on the backside of the low during the second half of the day Wednesday, but low clouds and sub-VFR conditions could continue into Wednesday night.
Southerly winds around 10 knots Tuesday turn southeast then east by Wednesday morning, northeast Wednesday afternoon, then north Wednesday night as the low pressure moves away from the area.
Sub-MVFR cigs and vsbys remain possible with any spotty shower or thunderstorm activity that looks to linger Thursday. Mid-level ridging should promote drier conditions during the late afternoon and evening as low pressure pushes further offshore. Sub-VFR conditions return Friday into Saturday as another upper level trough and series of fronts traverse the region. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase across the terminals especially Friday and Saturday afternoons. Slightly drier conditions and VFR return Sunday into Monday next week.
MARINE
Increasing southeast to south winds this afternoon are expected to reach SCA levels by late afternoon in the southern/central Chesapeake Bay, then across most of the waters this evening. Peak gusts between 20-25 knots in the open waters of the bay are likely.
Winds diminish late tonight, though gusts between 15-18 knots are possible through Tuesday morning. South-southeast winds increase once again Tuesday afternoon and evening, with another SCA likely needed for that time period. Winds could gust slightly higher to around 24-28 knots in the open waters of the bay during this time.
An area of low pressure will approach the region from the west late tonight, bringing widespread showers and some thunderstorms to the local waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters if any strong storm capable of producing wind gusts of 35 knots develops.
The area of low pressure is forecast to move across eastern VA to the Delmarva Wednesday morning, and winds are forecast to turn northeast to north and decrease on the backside of the low. However, another period of SCA winds is possible Wednesday night as northeast to north winds increase.
SCA conditions are likely Thursday into Friday as low pressure pushes offshore and weak high pressure builds in. SCA conditions will linger into the weekend as a series of fronts traverse the region. This will be the case Friday with a warm front and Saturday with a cold front set to cross the waters. Shower and thunderstorm activity will also increase especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
South to southeast winds through Tuesday night will keep water levels elevated in the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac. Expect additional minor coastal flooding at high tide over the next 24-36 hours, especially at sensitive locations in Annapolis, Otter Point, DC Waterfront, and Straits Point.
As an area of low pressure moves east of the area Wednesday, winds become northeast, then north. This should result in quickly decreasing water levels and reduced coastal flood threat.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ508.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-538.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531-539>541.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ532>534-537- 543.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ542.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 146 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
A slow moving low pressure system approaches from the west tonight, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, and below normal temperatures. Drier weather returns Thursday before another storm system brings the threat for showers and storms Friday into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Dry and seasonal conditions for the rest of today into most of tonight as high pressure over the area moves away this evening.
Temperatures in the 70s this afternoon drop down to the mid 50s to low 60s tonight. Cloud cover increases from southwest to northeast tonight as an area of low pressure approaches from the west.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Unsettled weather returns to the area Tuesday and Wednesday as a broad broad upper trough and surface low slowly track eastward across the area. Showers should be more scattered in nature, although there could be a few periods of steadier rain. Instability appears to be rather limited Tuesday, with the best chance of any thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge. If anything, there may be a better opportunity for some elevated rumbles of thunder Tuesday night. Wednesday brings greater instability across the southwestern half of the area, where there may be a better chance for some breaks of sun.
Rain chances finally decrease Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the surface low moves across eastern VA toward the Delmarva and out to sea. Some showers could linger if the upper low is slower to depart the area, particularly for those along/east of I-95.
There may be a few opportunities for locally heavier rain: (1) with southeasterly upslope flow into the central Virginia Blue Ridge on Tuesday, (2) north of the surface low track Tuesday night, and (3)
within the higher instability airmass Wednesday when flow will be light under the upper trough. Any risk of flooding appears to be marginal and dependent on multiple or prolonged periods of heavier rain. Forecast totals range from 0.50-1.00" north of US-50, and around 1-2" south toward Central Virginia. The threat for severe thunderstorms appears to be low through the period.
Widespread cloud cover and rainfall keeps daytime temperatures below normal through mid week as highs only reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows settle in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure and the resultant upper level trough will pivot off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday while brief mid-level ridging settles in from the central Appalachians region. This will allow for a brief reprieve in shower and thunderstorm activity before things ramp up again later in the workweek.
Unfortunately the calmer weather conditions will be short-lived with the next upper level trough and low pressure system set to approach from the Ohio River Valley/Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday.
With that said, model guidance continues to show subtle discrepancies in regards to to the timing of this system and placement of it's associated surface fronts across the region. Most of the recent 00z guidance suggests an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon and night as a warm front lifts through the area. A slow moving cold front will immediately follow this boundary Saturday into Saturday night bringing with it additional showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather does not appear to be a concern at this point although one or two strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out if CAPE and shear are maximized.
Localized flooding could be the bigger concern given repetitive rounds of rain throughout the week and rich moisture flooding in along the slow moving warm front Friday into Friday night.
Upper level ridging tries to build back into the area Sunday bringing slightly drier conditions. Another front will follow with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday next week. Temperatures throughout the extended forecast period will remain at or slightly below normal for the middle of May.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions through tonight as high pressure over the area exits to the east, and an area of low pressure approaches from the west.
Clouds begin to increase in coverage and lower tonight, though should remain VFR until around sunrise Tuesday.
Low MVFR to IFR CIGs quickly build in from the southwest at CHO early Tuesday morning, and eventually reach the other terminals by the afternoon. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday evening, with on-and-off showers continuing into Tuesday night. The low clouds, some reduced visibility due to mist and rain continue Wednesday morning as the area of low pressure moves just south of the area.
Conditions dry out on the backside of the low during the second half of the day Wednesday, but low clouds and sub-VFR conditions could continue into Wednesday night.
Southerly winds around 10 knots Tuesday turn southeast then east by Wednesday morning, northeast Wednesday afternoon, then north Wednesday night as the low pressure moves away from the area.
Sub-MVFR cigs and vsbys remain possible with any spotty shower or thunderstorm activity that looks to linger Thursday. Mid-level ridging should promote drier conditions during the late afternoon and evening as low pressure pushes further offshore. Sub-VFR conditions return Friday into Saturday as another upper level trough and series of fronts traverse the region. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase across the terminals especially Friday and Saturday afternoons. Slightly drier conditions and VFR return Sunday into Monday next week.
MARINE
Increasing southeast to south winds this afternoon are expected to reach SCA levels by late afternoon in the southern/central Chesapeake Bay, then across most of the waters this evening. Peak gusts between 20-25 knots in the open waters of the bay are likely.
Winds diminish late tonight, though gusts between 15-18 knots are possible through Tuesday morning. South-southeast winds increase once again Tuesday afternoon and evening, with another SCA likely needed for that time period. Winds could gust slightly higher to around 24-28 knots in the open waters of the bay during this time.
An area of low pressure will approach the region from the west late tonight, bringing widespread showers and some thunderstorms to the local waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters if any strong storm capable of producing wind gusts of 35 knots develops.
The area of low pressure is forecast to move across eastern VA to the Delmarva Wednesday morning, and winds are forecast to turn northeast to north and decrease on the backside of the low. However, another period of SCA winds is possible Wednesday night as northeast to north winds increase.
SCA conditions are likely Thursday into Friday as low pressure pushes offshore and weak high pressure builds in. SCA conditions will linger into the weekend as a series of fronts traverse the region. This will be the case Friday with a warm front and Saturday with a cold front set to cross the waters. Shower and thunderstorm activity will also increase especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
South to southeast winds through Tuesday night will keep water levels elevated in the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac. Expect additional minor coastal flooding at high tide over the next 24-36 hours, especially at sensitive locations in Annapolis, Otter Point, DC Waterfront, and Straits Point.
As an area of low pressure moves east of the area Wednesday, winds become northeast, then north. This should result in quickly decreasing water levels and reduced coastal flood threat.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ508.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-538.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531-539>541.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ532>534-537- 543.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ542.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLUA LURAY CAVERNS,VA | 18 sm | 27 min | S 06 | 10 sm | -- | 73°F | 50°F | 44% | 29.98 |
Tide / Current for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT 3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT 3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3 |
| 1 am |
| 2.8 |
| 2 am |
| 2.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.8 |
| 10 am |
| 2.6 |
| 11 am |
| 3 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.4 |
Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:42 AM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 10:44 AM EDT 1.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:32 PM EDT -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:26 PM EDT 0.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:42 AM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 10:44 AM EDT 1.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:32 PM EDT -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:26 PM EDT 0.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Aquia Creek, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0 |
| 6 pm |
| -0 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Sterling, VA,
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