Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 2:09 AM   Moonset 12:44 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS65 KREV 020932 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 232 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS

We will have a quick warming trend from today through tomorrow.
However, periods of showers are likely in the far northern portions of the region and breezy winds this afternoon. Active weather effectively returns to the area on Saturday with a storm system bringing gusty winds along with valley rain and mountain snow. Conditions slowly improve on Sunday. Early next week, a slow warming trend with low chances for precipitation remain in the forecast.

DISCUSSION

A quick warming trend starts today, even though a weak shortwave trough will be passing through just north of our area. Periods of showers are expected in the far northern portions of the CWA including the Surprise Valley, far north Washoe near the OR border and northern Lassen Co. as seen on multiple members of the HRRR.
Additionally breezy conditions are expected to develop this afternoon with the tightening of the pressure gradient at the surface. Shower activity will end during the evening hours at the same time that winds subside across the region. Tomorrow, we will have fair weather with afternoon highs between 65-75F valleys, and 50-65F mountains.

The next storm system is expected this weekend. A closed low descending from the Gulf of Alaska will push through OR/CA/NV on Saturday and Sunday. This system brings strong and gusty winds as well as periods of valley rain and mountain snow. Wind appears to be the main hazard as an upper level jet with 100+ kts sets over the Sierra and W NV on Saturday. The 700 mb winds show winds greater than 60 kts over the Sierra. The NBM 10th percentile shows gusts in excess of 40 mph for western NV and 50-70 mph for the Sierra. Furthermore, the probability of gusts greater than 60 mph in the higher elevations of the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe and the Wassuk Range from Walker Lake down to Powell Mountain is over 80%. Gusts in excess of 40 mph are very likely across most of the area per the NBM guidance. These winds will also generate periods of blowing dust over Pershing and Churchill counties on Saturday afternoon during the peak winds.

The next hazard with this system is valley rain and mountain snow.
Snow levels start around 8-10 kft on Friday night and descend to 6 kft behind the frontal passage in the late afternoon on Saturday.
Snow levels will be down to valley floors by Sunday morning.
However, by then most of the precipitation would have ended.
Therefore, we are not really expecting accumulations at the valley floor on Sunday morning as of this moment. In the meantime, snow amounts in the Sierra will be generally light at lake level and adjacent communities. The probability of 4+ inches of snow in the Tahoe Basin including Truckee is 20-40%. For the communities along US-395 in Mono Co. the prob for 4+ inches is 20% or less. The Sierra crest has a 10-20% chance of reaching 12 inches of snow in the Tahoe Basin, and slightly higher over portions of the crest in Mono Co. Therefore, the main concern will be around Sierra passes and near the crest where the highest amounts are expected between 4-8", possibly up to 12" in isolated locations near the crest.
Rainfall amounts for western NV valleys are expected to remain mostly below 0.25 inches, except for the far northern portions of Washoe Co near the OR border where up to 0.75 inches are possible as this area is closer to the center of the low. Amounts greater than 0.5 inches are not very likely as the probability remains below 20% over western NV, except for far north Washoe with 30-50%.

Conditions slowly improve on Sunday as the upper low slowly exits the area towards UT and ID. Early next week, we will continue to experience cool temperatures behind this system as well as low chances for precipitation through mid-week, especially in the northern portions of the region. At least models are not indicating any significant systems at the time, just minor inconveniences through most of the week.

-Crespo

AVIATION

Mainly VFR conditions continue through the period. Periods of showers in the far northern portions of the region may lead to MVFR conditions due to lower CIGS and VIS. Otherwise, most of the area will be dry with no restrictions. Winds continue to be the main hazard today with localized LLWS and light turbulence near area mountains. Terrain-driven winds this morning become from the west and west-northwest with speeds between 10-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts after 20Z. Winds subside for most areas except mountain ridges after 3Z this evening. Ridge winds drop overnight.

A storm system this weekend brings periods of valley rain and mountain snow, as well as strong and gusty winds. This will cause reductions in CIGS and VIS along with turbulence and LLWS.

-Crespo

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

Sacramento #4
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:14 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:42 AM PDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:21 AM PDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:50 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:15 PM PDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM PDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Clarksburg #4
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:33 AM PDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:14 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:51 AM PDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM PDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:51 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:59 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:40 PM PDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clarksburg #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Reno, NV,