Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alexandria, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:22PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 3:00 AM EDT (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:32AMMoonset 4:50PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 132 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Overnight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will briefly build across the waters overnight before a low pressure system moves up the coast near the delmarva Tuesday night. Another area of low pressure will move through the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alexandria, VA
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location: 38.83, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 230145
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
945 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
A cold front is crossing the region this evening. High pressure
will briefly return overnight before low pressure develops over
eastern carolina Tuesday and moves northeast off the delmarva
Tuesday night. Upper-level low pressure will move toward the
area Wednesday through Friday.

Near term /through Tuesday/
Cold front is currently near the blue ridge but only slowly
moving eastward. Have slight chance pops til late evening for
anything the front initiates, but at this points odds favor
nothing more tonight.

If the front makes it through the area overnight, it won't be
by much, but drier air should eventually filter in. Before it
does so, some patchy fog may develop, mainly in southeastern
areas. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/
Tuesday's forecast remains very tricky due to a gap between the
synoptic and mesoscale models handling low pressure development
along the front to our southeast. Previous shift chatted with
wpc, and they think the gfs/ecmwf could be suffering from
feedback, and think the nam/wrfs simulations may prove more
accurate unless an unmodeled MCV pulls the surface low farther
north. With better precipitable water values to our southeast,
think heavy rain threat is limited, but areas from
charlottesville to st. Marys could have a period of moderate
rain. It is more uncertain how much rain falls in the metros.

The low will be progressive though, with any rain ending for
most areas Tuesday evening.

A closed upper low will be moving south into the mid-west Wednesday
while a sfc low and associated cold front moves eastward across the
ohio valley. A brief period of subsidence is expected across the mid-
atlantic Wednesday leading to mostly dry conditions for most of the
day. Weak instability and lift increase across the southwest by
late afternoon. If current trends hold, widespread rainfall will
occur Wednesday night as a boundary lifts northward into the
area. There may be some weak instability, resulting in a few
rumbles of thunder.

Have not strayed too far from model consensus for temperatures.

Diurnal ranges will be muted due to clouds and precipitation,
with lows in the 50s to lower 60s and highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

Long term /Thursday through Monday/
A slow-moving low pressure system will allow for the chance for rain
showers and a few thunderstorms to linger across the region Thursday
into Thursday evening.

The chance for rain showers shift to the mason-dixon line and
adjacent areas Friday as the storm system finally departs northeast
into new england.

By Friday night and Saturday, weak high pressure will move into the
region. Dry conditions and a gusty breeze should ensue.

Rain showers develop in the region again for Sunday as the next
storm system pivots into the region. Temperatures will be warmer.

Aviation /02z Tuesday through Saturday/
Vfr to high MVFR currently, with lower clouds lingering in spots.

Some patchy fog may develop overnight, most likely affecting mtn
and bwi. No additional precip expected through early Tuesday.

Tuesday forecast remains uncertain with guidance spread in
position of low pressure and moderate rainfall. Continued to
hedge toward a more optimistic solution of MVFR for now except
at cho, but ifr isn't out of the question. A break in
precipitation is expected Tuesday night through most of
Wednesday, although with continued uncertainty of how ceilings
will respond.

Showers and perhaps a storm are possible Wed night-thu night as
a warm front moves across the terminals. Sub-vfr conditions
possible during this time.

Ifr conditions Thursday. Winds southwest around 5 knots Thursday.

MVFR conditions Thursday night. Winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots
Thursday night.VFR conditions Friday into Friday night. Winds
increasing northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts 20 knots Friday,
diminishing to 5 to 10 knots Friday night.

Marine
Winds remain less than 10 kt. Southerly flow will become
west/northwest overnight with a cold frontal passage. No further
showers expected overnight.

The pressure gradient will tighten Tuesday as low pressure
moves up the coast. Have kept small craft advisory for the mid
bay and lower potomac, where the gradient will be the best. The
winds should subside Tuesday night as the low moves away.

Low pressure will be moving west of the area Wednesday night
into Thursday, lifting a warm front into the area. Southerly
flow may reach SCA criteria.

No marine hazards Thursday night. Small craft advisories
possible Friday. No marine hazards Friday night.

Tides/coastal flooding
Anomalies have continued to fall to around 1/2 ft except on the
potomac. Flooding looks unlikely for the next couple cycles at
least. However, a coastal low Tuesday provides some
uncertainty. Guidance ensembles then diverge substantially
through midweek, although increasing water levels look more
likely by Wednesday night.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday
night for anz533-534-537-543.

Synopsis... Ads/rcm
near term... Ads/rcm
short term... Ads/rcm
long term... Klw
aviation... Ads/klw/rcm
marine... Ads/klw/rcm
tides/coastal flooding... Ads


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44061 - Upper Potomac, MD 3 mi42 min N 1.9 G 3.9 61°F 69°F1013.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 3 mi42 min W 1 G 2.9 64°F 70°F1013.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 18 mi150 min N 1 57°F 1015 hPa56°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 32 mi42 min 62°F 1013.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 32 mi60 min NE 6 G 7 63°F 66°F
44063 - Annapolis 33 mi40 min N 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 1013.5 hPa
NCDV2 35 mi42 min N 1.9 G 1.9 64°F 69°F1012.8 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi42 min 64°F 64°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi40 min N 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 1014.3 hPa
FSNM2 38 mi42 min N 5.1 G 6 62°F 1013.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 38 mi42 min N 5.1 G 6 62°F 1013.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 39 mi42 min NNE 5.1 G 6 61°F 69°F1013.3 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 41 mi40 min N 3.9 G 5.8 64°F 1014.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 46 mi42 min N 8 G 11 64°F 1014.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 47 mi42 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 67°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA2 mi68 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F64°F100%1014.2 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD9 mi62 minNNE 30.50 miFog63°F62°F100%1013.9 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA10 mi62 minNNW 410.00 miFair62°F60°F95%1014.5 hPa
College Park Airport, MD12 mi67 minN 30.50 miOvercast61°F60°F99%1013.9 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi69 minN 01.25 miOvercast55°F55°F100%1014.9 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA24 mi68 minNNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F51°F70%1014.5 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD24 mi64 minN 00.50 miFog56°F55°F100%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from DCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmE5E3E4CalmSE3SE4S3SE5S6SE4S6S4S6S4S5S3CalmE4CalmNW5CalmNW6
1 day agoE5E6E9E5E4E5E7SE5SE7SE8E7SE6SE9SE8SE9SE9S9SE7SE6SE7SE6S4E4E7
2 days agoSW4CalmNE10NE8
G17
NE10E10NE12E9NE13E10NE7E11E10E10E11E13E11E12E9E10E11E5E7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bellevue, Potomac River, Washington, D.C.
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Bellevue
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:40 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:34 AM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:40 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:08 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.61.32.33.13.53.63.22.51.81.10.70.30.30.71.52.42.93.232.41.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Benning Bridge, D.C.
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Benning Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:55 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:25 PM EDT     3.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.51.12.13.13.63.83.52.82.11.40.80.40.20.51.32.233.33.32.821.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.