Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mantua, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:29PM Monday March 27, 2017 10:15 PM EDT (02:15 UTC) Moonrise 5:55AMMoonset 6:09PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 854 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms...then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning...then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 854 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will push north of the mid atlantic tonight. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the waters for midweek, followed by a low pressure system moving towards the region on Friday. Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the cold front, and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mantua, VA
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location: 38.84, -77.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 280045
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
845 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area late Tuesday. High pressure
builds over the region Wednesday into Thursday. Another
disturbance will approach the area late Thursday into early Saturday.

Near term /until 7 am Tuesday morning/
Although instability meager (around 500 j/kg on 00z lwx raob),
it's been sufficient for a line of scattered showers to develop
in the shenandoah valley. This cluster is now (as of 8:30 pm)
emerging off the blue ridge headed toward dc. Mesoscale guidance
has been suggesting such a scenario since late this afternoon.

Behind that, the nearest precipitation is in the ohio valley.

However, dewpoints are on the higher side (in the upper 50s) and
positive vorticity advection will be increasing overnight.

Have targeted pops in the database for the evening hours, per
cams, but will be transitioning to a more widespread but low-end
probability for the pre-dawn hours as forcing grows.

The other consideration will be the fog potential overnight, as
there will be plenty of low-level moisture and little flow (but
with an easterly component). Am still going with patchy wording
but for a larger portion of the domain. (visibility values are
lower too, although that's not reflected in public forecasts.)
will need to see how things transpire due to residual cloudcover,
which may be an impediment.

Short term /7 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday/
Another warm day tomorrow as moisture/warmth pools ahead of
cold front. SPC continues to delineate the southern half (i.E.,
from dc south) and east of the blue ridge in a marginal risk
for severe weather. While CAPE is higher tomorrow (e.G.,
~500-800 j/kg MLCAPE with the higher amounts to the south) shear
is also considerably less (i.E., ~20-25 knots). Thus, expect
the possibility of a few poorly-organized marginally-severe
thunderstorms across the risk area. Any threats expected to be
isolated and confined to damaging wind gusts and small hail.

Chances for precipitation should be ending late Tuesday evening
as the shortwave moves off the coast and cold front pulls away
from the area. High pressure returns Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Temperatures Wednesday cool nearly ten degrees from Tuesday (though
still remain above normal).

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/
Thursday starts out dry as a high pressure builds into the ne
conus. Meanwhile, a strong closed low will be moving northeast
from the southern plains and into the mid-atlantic. This system
will bring decent amounts of moisture into the region, with
rain starting Thursday night and remain into sometime Saturday.

Many GEFS members bring the highest QPF amounts on Friday night.

Conditions become dry behind this system Saturday and into
Monday. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s, and lows
in the 40s.

Aviation /01z Tuesday through Saturday/
A couple of showers are meandering near iad this evening, but
are not causing any flight restrictions. These showers heading
toward dca. Expect the same result.

Flow will be light tonight. In the dc/baltimore corridor, there
will be an onshore component, with relatively high dewpoints and
potentially patchy wet ground. That means that fog development
is a real possibility. Guidance has been emphatic that it once
again will be dense. Am uncertain if that is an artifact of
model bias. It still looks like the best chances for fog or low
clouds will be at iad/mtn/bwi/dca. Went lower than previous tafs,
but still kept forecast at ifr due to reduced confidence.

A chance for thunderstorms returns to the terminals Tuesday
afternoon... With the possibility of gusty winds and small hail
in the strongest storms. Conditions should improve late Tuesday
evening through Wednesday with the return ofVFR as high
pressure builds into the area.

Dry/vfr conditions expected for Thursday before rain approaches
over the area Thursday night, possibly bringing sub-vfr
conditions over the terminals Friday into early Saturday.

Marine
Light winds on the waters tonight. Thunderstorms will again be
possible Tuesday afternoon, some of which could produce smw-
level winds. Wind gusts will then increase Tuesday night into
Wednesday behind frontal passage... With SCA possible as early as
early Wednesday morning... But likely during the day Wednesday.

Winds expected to diminish later Wednesday.

Dry conditions expected for Thursday before rain approaches over
the area Thursday night bringing showers over the waters into part
of Saturday. Wind gusts will be near the small craft advisory
threshold mainly Friday night into Saturday... Therefore SCA possible
at times.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mse
near term... Hts
short term... Mse
long term... Imr
aviation... Hts/mse/imr
marine... Hts/mse/imr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 12 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 67°F 49°F1013.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi106 min ESE 1.9 64°F 1013 hPa56°F
NCDV2 38 mi46 min S 6 G 8.9 71°F 51°F1013 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 42 mi46 min 55°F 1013.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 43 mi76 min E 2.9 G 2.9 61°F 46°F56°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 58°F 1013.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi46 min Calm G 0 59°F 47°F1013.5 hPa
CPVM2 47 mi46 min 55°F 55°F
FSNM2 47 mi46 min ENE 6 G 6 63°F 1013.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi26 min SSW 14 G 16 53°F 1014.5 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA8 mi78 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F55°F65%1013.5 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA12 mi24 minN 710.00 miLight Rain66°F57°F75%1013.7 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA13 mi24 minESE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F59°F90%1013.3 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA17 mi20 minN 410.00 mi0°F0°F%1013.9 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi35 minN 010.00 miOvercast63°F55°F78%1013.9 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD20 mi18 minSSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F54°F77%1013.8 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA23 mi20 minSSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds64°F55°F75%1013.6 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA24 mi21 minSE 310.00 miOvercast68°F60°F78%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm533CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4Calm3S5533SE453SE4Calm3CalmCalm
1 day agoSE3Calm35Calm56353633CalmE5Calm6E635Calm4E43
2 days ago4SW5S3S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S5S5S5CalmSW34SE8SE3CalmCalmCalm3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
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Mon -- 03:09 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:45 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:38 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:10 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.80.30.10.30.91.92.73.23.332.31.610.50.10.10.51.42.333.23.12.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:12 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:46 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:40 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:11 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.40.80.40.10.30.91.92.73.13.22.92.31.610.50.10.10.51.42.32.93.232.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.