Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
George Mason, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:21 PM EDT (17:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:47PMMoonset 8:52AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 113 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 218 in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 113 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach from the north through this evening before passing through overnight. High pressure will gradually build overhead Friday through Friday night and a warm front will approach the waters Saturday. A weak cold front will move in from the north Sunday, but it will likely stall out nearby through Monday. A small craft advisory will be needed for the waters Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near George Mason, VA
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location: 38.84, -77.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 231428
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1028 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will remain offshore through this afternoon and a
cold front will move into the area tonight. This front will
linger nearby through Saturday, likely dissipated by Sunday
before another cold front sinks into the area from the north.

This boundary will stall out across the mid atlantic into the
early portion of next week. As a result, unsettled conditions
can be expected during this period.

Near term through tonight
High pressure will remain offshore today and a southerly flow
will continue to usher in warmer and more humid conditions. Max
temps will top off in the mid to upper 80s across most locations
with a few locations possibly approaching 90 degrees. The
increased heat and humidity will lead to an unstable atmosphere.

Latest modified kiad sounding shows around 1-2kj kg of mlcape
developing this afternoon, with some locations possibility
reaching over 2kj kg. A convective system is also tracking
through the ohio valley into western pennsylvania this morning.

This system will track through our area this afternoon into this
evening. Latest thinking is that this system will weaken as it
approaches late this morning, but re-development is possible
across our area this afternoon into early this evening due to
the increasing instability. Strong deep layer shear combined
with the instability suggests that severe thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon into this evening. Deep layer shear will
most likely be around 40-50 knots. Current thinking is that the
best chance for strong to severe storms will be near and east of
a pressure trough that should set up near the blue ridge and
catcoctin mountains this afternoon. However, given the strong
shear profiles and relatively favorable mid-level lapse rates,
there is a threat for severe storms across the entire area. Do
think that overall coverage of the severe storms will be
isolated to scattered since the lifting mechanism is relatively
weak. Locally damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary
threats, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out due to the
strong shear profiles.

In preparation for today's potential severe threat, ensure you
and your family have multiple ways to receive warnings and have
a plan and place to take shelter if needed.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible later
this evening ahead of the cold front. Instability will be more
limited, but the shear profiles will be quite strong. Therefore,
an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out with this activity,
especially across northern maryland northern va eastern wv.

Activity will diminish overnight as instability continues to
decrease and the cold front drops farther south.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
The front will settle over central and southern virginia on
Friday, as drier air filters over the area on a northwesterly
breeze. Highs will still reach the upper 70s to low 80s, but
with dewpoints dropping back into the 50s, a pleasant Friday is
in store. Transient high pressure will cross the area Friday
night, moving offshore on Saturday. This will bring a return
flow to the area once again, with temperatures and dewpoints
increasing once again. The frontal boundary will start to lift
northward as a warm front, kinking across the appalachians. As
such, afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible on Saturday over the higher terrain. Dry conditions in
store Saturday night with temperatures remaining mild well into
the 60s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Bermuda high will dominate the weather Sunday, resulting in a flow
of very warm to borderline hot and humid air northward across our
region. However, a cold front sliding southeastward will set the
stage for some late day convection. Latest GFS and ec both drop the
front southward across the region for memorial day, with more
clouds, cooler air and perhaps a shower or two expected. Wave of low
pressure then rides northward across the great lakes on Tuesday,
pulling the cold front back north as a warm front. Bermuda high
influence should return after the warm front passes Tuesday, and
continue through Wednesday at least, resulting in more very warm and
humid weather. A stray shower or t-storm couldn't be ruled out
either day, with highest risk in the mountains, but the odds would
be low.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
PredominateVFR conditions at the terminals through midday,
with the threat for showers and storms this afternoon and
evening. Some storms may be severe, with damaging wind gusts
being the primary threat, however large hail and an isolated
tornado is also possible. Convection will wane overnight with
vfr conditions returning overnight.

Drier conditions and northerly breezes are expected Friday and
Friday night, withVFR conditions winning out. Afternoon
showers storms on Saturday could impact mrb with an episode of
subVFR vis cigs, but all other terminals will remain inVFR
under a light southerly flow.

Thunderstorms may impact the terminals Sunday afternoon evening as a
cold front slides southward. Low clouds could impact the terminals
Monday behind the front.

Marine
Sca conditions will exist over the waters through this evening
as southerly flow increases and mixing is favorable ahead of an
approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will cross the
waters this afternoon and evening, with some severe storms
bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts. Timeframe for
this activity will be between 4-8pm, but another round of
thunderstorms are possible late this evening, especially across
the northern bay. Activity will wind down overnight. A cold
front will cross the waters overnight, settling to the south on
Friday. SCA conditions are expected on Friday under a gusty
northwest flow. Winds turn light Friday night as high pressure
traverses the region.

Southerly winds increase on Saturday afternoon, bringing the
potential for SCA conditions once again. Special marine
warnings may be needed Sunday as thunderstorms develop in the
vicinity. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday and Monday
as a cold front crosses the region.

Tides coastal flooding
The southerly flow has caused elevated anomalies, and that will
continue through this evening. Minor flooding is possible, but
confidence is too low for an advisory at this point, since the
flow will turn just west of south. The flow will turn toward
the west overnight and northwest Friday, causing anomalies to
decrease.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz531>534-
537-539>541-543.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 8 pm edt Friday for
anz530>543.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz530-535-
536-538-542.

Synopsis... Bkf
near term... Bjl bkf
short term... Bkf
long term... Rcm
aviation... Bjl bkf rcm
marine... Bjl bkf rcm
tides coastal flooding... Bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 15 mi39 min S 8 G 8 75°F 70°F1019 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi39 min SSW 8.9 G 13 80°F 73°F1018.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 45 mi33 min 80°F 1018.5 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi39 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 67°F1019.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 46 mi21 min SE 12 G 13 70°F 67°F1019.9 hPa (-2.0)63°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 48 mi39 min S 2.9 G 7 74°F 70°F1018.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 49 mi33 min E 5.1 G 5.1 72°F 1018.8 hPa
FSNM2 49 mi45 min E 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA10 mi25 minS 1010.00 miFair83°F66°F59%1018.9 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA11 mi29 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F66°F58%1018.1 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA14 mi25 minSSW 8 G 1810.00 miFair83°F69°F63%1019.3 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA14 mi29 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F64°F64%1019 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA22 mi46 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F68°F70%1019.3 hPa
College Park Airport, MD22 mi38 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F61°F61%1019 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi25 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F64°F61%1019.5 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA23 mi85 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F70°F76%1020 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD24 mi25 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F64°F60%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S4SE5SE4SE5SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE5S5SE5SE5S6S5S6S7SW6S5S4S10
1 day agoNW5NW6NW8NW8NW8NW7N5NW4Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6CalmS4
2 days agoSW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:31 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:35 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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332.621.40.90.60.50.81.42.32.93.33.32.92.41.81.20.80.50.40.81.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:36 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:53 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:40 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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332.621.40.90.60.50.71.42.22.93.33.332.41.81.20.80.50.40.71.42.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.