Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Calhan, CO
April 30, 2024 6:52 PM MDT (00:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 1:50 AM Moonset 11:09 AM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 302344 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 544 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cooler Wednesday night and Thursday with a quick round of snow showers in the mountain and rain showers and thunderstorms on the plains.
- Another round of showers and storms late Friday/early Saturday.
- Warmer and breezy over the weekend.
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
True-Color satellite imagery shows a beautiful day across the forecast area today with widespread sunshine. Tonight will be mild and dry with increasing clouds through the overnight hours. Low temperatures will stay a few degrees above normal seeing widespread high 30s/low 40s across the foothills and plains with the mountains staying in the high 20s/low 30s.
Overnight, westerly flow aloft will transition to the southwest by early tomorrow morning as a shortwave trough advances eastward from the PNW. The latest guidance indicates mid and upper level moisture will increase throughout the day and with decent mid level lapse rates (6-9 deg C/km), and a jet overhead in the morning, there is a chance for some morning rain showers to develop over the northern mountains. With mid level lapse rates remaining in the 7-8 deg C/kg range through the afternoon across the lower elevations, there is a chance for some rain showers or a few isolated thunderstorms to develop in these locations. Temperatures will be well above normal for Lincoln County reaching the high 70s, and closer to the norm for the rest of the plains and foothills reaching 60s and 70s.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
It still looks like there's a pretty good chance of getting a brief round of showers/storms Wednesday evening as there's some instability. Not much of a severe threat, although there may be as much as 1000 J/kg of CAPE in the northeast corner in the early evening. There's quick drying behind the trough, so the threat of showers and probably clouds will be gone by morning. There may be enough moisture left for isolated diurnal convection Thursday afternoon, but it may just be too dry. We may be briefly close to critical fire weather conditions.
The next shortwave still looks like it comes late Friday, probably well timed for another quick round of showers/storms helped by an afternoon cold front.
The weekend looks dry and warm under a shortwave ridge Saturday, and then southwest flow ahead of a west coast trough for Sunday.
Our forecast remains on the warm side of the ensemble envelope, which is probably alright and near the operational runs. We could have critical or near critical fire weather ahead of the trough, though greenup is limiting fire danger now. The trough probably brings another quick round of showers/storms as it comes by quickly and possibly north of us. Scattered PoPs Monday and slight cooling Tuesday in the NBM look good.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/
Issued at 543 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Winds will be the main concern, but for now it appears easterly winds (with gusts to around 20 knots) will dominate through about 06Z before trending more southeasterly overnight. There could be a period of stronger south/southwest winds toward 17Z-21Z Wednesday with gusts up to 20-28 knots...depending on how fast we heat up and mix, but somewhat lighter south/southeast winds (40-50% chance)
could also prevail. The southerly component wind is expected to last until a cold front arrives toward 21Z, turning winds more from the north/northwest and increasing with gusts up to 30 kts.
We'll also see growing chances of showers behind the front. The most likely time for showers and IMC would be after 00Z tomorrow evening, so covered that with a TEMPO group. Only isolated thunderstorm possible (10%).
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 544 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cooler Wednesday night and Thursday with a quick round of snow showers in the mountain and rain showers and thunderstorms on the plains.
- Another round of showers and storms late Friday/early Saturday.
- Warmer and breezy over the weekend.
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
True-Color satellite imagery shows a beautiful day across the forecast area today with widespread sunshine. Tonight will be mild and dry with increasing clouds through the overnight hours. Low temperatures will stay a few degrees above normal seeing widespread high 30s/low 40s across the foothills and plains with the mountains staying in the high 20s/low 30s.
Overnight, westerly flow aloft will transition to the southwest by early tomorrow morning as a shortwave trough advances eastward from the PNW. The latest guidance indicates mid and upper level moisture will increase throughout the day and with decent mid level lapse rates (6-9 deg C/km), and a jet overhead in the morning, there is a chance for some morning rain showers to develop over the northern mountains. With mid level lapse rates remaining in the 7-8 deg C/kg range through the afternoon across the lower elevations, there is a chance for some rain showers or a few isolated thunderstorms to develop in these locations. Temperatures will be well above normal for Lincoln County reaching the high 70s, and closer to the norm for the rest of the plains and foothills reaching 60s and 70s.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
It still looks like there's a pretty good chance of getting a brief round of showers/storms Wednesday evening as there's some instability. Not much of a severe threat, although there may be as much as 1000 J/kg of CAPE in the northeast corner in the early evening. There's quick drying behind the trough, so the threat of showers and probably clouds will be gone by morning. There may be enough moisture left for isolated diurnal convection Thursday afternoon, but it may just be too dry. We may be briefly close to critical fire weather conditions.
The next shortwave still looks like it comes late Friday, probably well timed for another quick round of showers/storms helped by an afternoon cold front.
The weekend looks dry and warm under a shortwave ridge Saturday, and then southwest flow ahead of a west coast trough for Sunday.
Our forecast remains on the warm side of the ensemble envelope, which is probably alright and near the operational runs. We could have critical or near critical fire weather ahead of the trough, though greenup is limiting fire danger now. The trough probably brings another quick round of showers/storms as it comes by quickly and possibly north of us. Scattered PoPs Monday and slight cooling Tuesday in the NBM look good.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/
Issued at 543 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Winds will be the main concern, but for now it appears easterly winds (with gusts to around 20 knots) will dominate through about 06Z before trending more southeasterly overnight. There could be a period of stronger south/southwest winds toward 17Z-21Z Wednesday with gusts up to 20-28 knots...depending on how fast we heat up and mix, but somewhat lighter south/southeast winds (40-50% chance)
could also prevail. The southerly component wind is expected to last until a cold front arrives toward 21Z, turning winds more from the north/northwest and increasing with gusts up to 30 kts.
We'll also see growing chances of showers behind the front. The most likely time for showers and IMC would be after 00Z tomorrow evening, so covered that with a TEMPO group. Only isolated thunderstorm possible (10%).
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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