Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Calhan, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:09PM Monday May 20, 2019 2:24 PM MDT (20:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:08PMMoonset 7:10AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calhan, CO
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 38.85, -104     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus65 kbou 201541
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
941 am mdt Mon may 20 2019

Update
Issued at 941 am mdt Mon may 20 2019
current moist and unstable forecast still on track this morning
as a broad closed upper trough over the southern great basin
provides widespread QG ascent aloft ovr NE co. Fairly high surface
pressure over the north central us plains is proving cold
easterly return surface flow onto eastern co. These current low
level easterlies, with t dpts only in the lower 40s mid 30s will
continue into the afternoon sustaining the low lvl upslope ascent
with stratiform rain and drizzle across the plains. From this
push, the 12z den sounding hinting at a freezing drizzle type
profile this morning which we're seeing on the some of the iced-
over foothills cams and also near the co wy border. Lower
elevations should be warm enough near the surface surface to
remain water. Snow level, currently near 7500 feet east of the
divide, should hover near that level thru the afternoon before
lowering into the evening. Higher mountains west of the divide are
currently seeing patches of blue skies, but will gradully fill in
by the aftn as trof approaches with widespread mountain snow
still expected for the overnight period.

Main issue heading into the afternoon will be the threat for ts
action after 20z. Moist and unstable southwesterly flow aloft will
likely contain an embedded aftn early eveing batch of storms over
cwa from better capes existing over so SE co where SPC has
mrgl slgt threat for storms. Current short term models still
hanging on to a period of high QPF from this potential convective
feature later tonight over the plains. To complicate this, brief
mesoscale subsidence behind batch of storms could bring brief
drying for a time later this evening along palmer and far plains.

Despite a few models indicating significant QPF asociated along
the front range with tstorms, believe we'll be in more of
cool cold stratiform enviroment with strongest storms developing
and sustaining out over the far eastern plains into ks ne, thus
no hydro concerns at this point for this evening along the front
range. At this time still expecting precip in the form of snow
along the front range urban corridor as the entire column cools
under the freezing mark by 09z tue. Will look for the gradually
decereasing snow levels into the late evening with snow down to
near 5000ft by 12z tue.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 440 am mdt Mon may 20 2019
as usual, nothing is easy around here due to the influence of the
mtns, which always causes issues with the models.

Water vapor from satellite shows a well defined mid level
circulation back near SW utah which will move to the four corners
area by early this evening. This low will then intensify as it
moves into sern co by 12z Tue and then become vertically stacked.

At the sfc, currently there are two low's with one SE of denver
while the main low is south of pueblo. Eventually the low over
sern co will become the dominate feature.

Overall there will be favorable mid level ascent across the entire
area both today and tonight with NRN co being in the favorable
position of the upper level jet. Soundings are generally moist
adiabatic thru the period. Thus should see showers and tstms become
more widespread through the day. Believe threat of svr storms is
low over sern portions of the area due to lack of heating, however,
can't completely rule out a marginal elevated severe storm. As
for temps, with considerable low cloud cover and expected pcpn,
readings may stay mainly in the 40's across nern co except over
far sern areas where lower to mid 50's may occur. Meanwhile highs
near the wy border may not even get above 40.

For tonight, as the main upper level low intensifies and moves into
sern co will continue to see additional rain and a few storms
over nern co. Across the higher terrain, not exactly sure how
things are going to evolve. The mid level flow is generally
southerly this evening which isn't real favorable for precip,
however, after midnight it does become more favorable. Thus
heavier snowfall may not occur until then.

At lower elevations, precip could change to snow over the palmer
divide this evening with snow levels down to 6500 feet. Meanwhile
overnight the ecmwf, NAM and caic WRF have temps becoming cold
enough for snow between midnight and 3 am down to around 5000 feet.

Overall there could end up being advisory type amounts over the
palmer divide abv 6500 feet and possible near the wy border in zn
38, however confidence isn't high since we are in the 3rd week of
may. Meanwhile could see an inch or so of snow on grassy areas by
12z Tue across some areas of the front range urban corridor if
precip does change to all snow by 09z.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 509 am mdt Mon may 20 2019
upper troughing will be in place for the CWA on Tuesday with a
closed circulation over southeast colorado at 12z Tuesday morning.

This feature is over southwestern nebraska at 00z Tuesday
afternoon. There will be a bit of weak upper ridging for the cwa
Tuesday night. On Wednesday strong southwesterly flow aloft moves
over the cwa. This continues Wednesday night. There is strong
upward motion over the CWA on the QG omega fields on Tuesday.

Downward vertical velocity is in place Tuesday evening through
Wednesday. Upward energy is progged Wednesday night. The level
winds are northerly upslope all day Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

Weak drainage patterns may kick in late Tuesday night. East and
northeasterly low level winds are progged Wednesday and Wednesday
night. For moisture... There is quite a bit over the CWA on Tuesday
and Tuesday evening, the deepest is over the mountains. The airmass
dries out later Tuesday night somewhat. Moisture increases again
by late Wednesday morning into Thursday. There is minor cape
around on Tuesday, mainly in the mountains. Same for Wednesday.

For pops, will keep in or go with 60-90%s on Tuesday for most of
the cwa. Will decrease them Tuesday night, more so over the plains
and keep "chance"s going in the mountains all night. Will go with
"likely"s in the mountains on Wednesday Wednesday night and
"chance"s over the western half of the plains for those periods.

Tuesday's precipitation should be a decent stratiform event with
widespread coverage for all the cwa. Snowfall amounts in the
mountains and foothills are still in line with the highlights on
Tuesday. For the plains on Tuesday morning before 18z, there is
some snow mixed in over the western areas and certainly all snow
for the palmer and cheyenne ridges. For temperatures, Tuesday's
highs will be similar to today's highs. Wednesday's readings will
be 1-4 c warmer. For the later days, Thursday through Sunday,
models have a mean trough over the western unites states and a
closed low centered over northern utah. Our CWA stays is strong
southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday. The southwesterly flow aloft
weakens some by Friday but is still fairly strong through the
weekend. Pops will be limited and mainly of the later day variety
in the mountains. Temperatures will stay cooler than normal on
Thursday, then warm up to around normal for Friday through Sunday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 941 am mdt Mon may 20 2019
a strong storm system will move across the rockies today and
Tuesday. Low clouds with ceilings of 500 to 1000 feet are expected
to prevail through 18z Tuesday. Light rain will continue this
morning and increase in intensity by midday. Thunderstorms will be
possible, with the best chance being 20z to 02z. Periods of
showers will continue tonight. Temperatures will slowly fall this
evening with rain changing to snow around or a little before
midnight. Up to 2 inches of snow may fall on grassy areas. A thin
slushy accumulation may occur on paved surfaces under isolated
higher intensity showers.

Bou watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to midnight mdt
Tuesday night for coz036.

Winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to midnight mdt
Tuesday night for coz035.

Winter storm warning until midnight mdt Tuesday night for coz031-
033-034.

Update... Fredin
short term... Rpk
long term... .Rjk
aviation... Meier


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
ELLICOTT-B AFA, CO18 mi29 minNE 10 G 28 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain0°F0°F%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from ABH (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrS15
G20
SE18
G22
SE18
G24
E15
G23
E17
G25
E19
G25
E20
G26
E13
G23
SE22
G29
SE21
G28
E20
G28
SE19
G25
SE12E13
G19
E13E14
G20
SE16
G24
SE17E15
G22
E19E19
G24
E17
G25
E19
G25
NE10
G28
1 day agoE23
G29
E11E12NW6N4CalmSE3NE4E8CalmNE5E6E11E7CalmNW4CalmSW8SW7SW12SW10S14S16
G22
S18
G25
2 days agoW24
G35
W25
G33
SW26
G36
W27
G35
W25
G32
SW15NE10NE5NE4CalmE7NE3CalmCalmSW6SE5S8S9W6CalmNE3NE16N22
G33
NE22
G28

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (16,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Pueblo, CO
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.