Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 12:08 AM   Moonset 9:00 AM

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FXUS65 KPUB 282035 AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 235 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- One last round of showers then drying out and warming up for Monday

- Mostly dry conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with critical fire weather conditions returning to the region.

- Active weather returns for Thursday and Friday, with precipitation chances increasing for most.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A trailing disturbance in northwest flow has triggered another round of rain and snow showers across the mountains this afternoon. With cold air aloft and instability of around a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE, some embedded thunderstorms will be possible which will be capable of brief localized snow bursts or small graupel. Snow levels will waver around 9000 feet with localized accumulations of an inch or two of snow possible across the higher peaks. Showers and thunderstorms will drift off into the valleys and adjacent plains late this afternoon and evening before dissipating later tonight.
Temperatures tonight will be on the cool side with a mix of 30s and lower 40s across the plains, 20s for the mountain valleys and teens for the higher peaks.

Monday will be dry and warmer under westerly flow aloft. Winds will remain relatively light and southerly as a lee side surface low develops across southern portions of the area. Temperatures will rebound into the 70s across the plains with 50s and 60s for the valleys and mountain communities and a mix of 30s and 40s for the higher peaks. -KT

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Monday Night - Wednesday: Relatively quiet weather is expected for the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe over south central and southeastern Colorado, though there will be a concern for the return of critical fire weather conditions. Synoptically, no significant systems are expected, as westerly flow with an embedded short wave prevails Tuesday, and flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of an approaching trough Wednesday. Despite the shortwave Tuesday, and the approaching larger wave Wednesday, no major forcing is expected, and dry conditions are anticipated. The exception to this will be along the mountains, and particularly the central mountains, where modest upticks in orographic forcing will help initiate isolated light showers.
Along with that though, showers will start to increase late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the trough starts arriving over the region. As mentioned though, fire weather will again start to become a concern. Increasing winds with the waves, and dry and warm air, and therefore low humidity values, will allow for critical fire weather conditions to materialize across the San Luis Valley both days, and expand across the plains Wednesday. As for temperatures, and briefly alluded to, temperatures will be warm. Mostly clear skies and downsloping winds will help to warm the region to above seasonal temperatures for late April to early May.

Thursday - Saturday: For the later half of the week, active weather returns, though mostly for Thursday and Friday at this time. During the later part of the week, the aforementioned trough will push over the south central and southeast Colorado area. This trough will bring a surge in forcing and a cold front to the region. These features will increase the precipitation chances for much of the area, but especially for the mountains and parts of the eastern plains. Then beyond this system, flow quickly becomes westerly again through the end of Friday and into Saturday. Given the lack of major forcing with that flow pattern, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail for the start of the weekend, though isolated light showers along the mountains will still be possible. Looking at temperatures, a cool down is expected behind the cold front with the trough, with temperatures falling to below seasonal values Thursday. Then through Friday and Saturday, a steady warm up is anticipated as the system quickly exits the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR cigs with VCSH/-SHRA will be possible at the TAF sites through this evening with the greatest odds for -SHRA at KALS through 02z.
Otherwise, expect diurnally driven winds with speeds under 15 kts and clearing skies overnight. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ224.

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