Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 4:28 AM   Moonset 5:23 PM

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FXUS65 KPUB 051746 AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1146 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather for the San Luis Valley today and areawide on Monday, possibly into the middle of the week.

- Wind driven snow along the Continental Divide tonight with strong and possibly damaging winds across the southeast mountains and immediate adjacent plains later tonight into Monday.

- Trend towards a wetter and cooler pattern late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates increasing southwest flow aloft across the region, with a strong upper low digging into the Great Basin attm. Water vapor and satellite imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming out ahead of the system into western Colorado this morning, with lee troughing and southerly low level winds helping to develop stratus across the southern slopes of the Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa, as will as across the far southeast plains and western Kansas at this time.

Latest models remain in good agreement of increasing southwest flow aloft across the region today and tonight, as the upper low continues to dig across the Great Basin this afternoon and remains progged to lift out across the Rockies later tonight through the day on Monday. The progged movement of the this system keeps much of southern Colorado in the dry and windy portion of the storm, with the systems strong jet core translating across south central Colorado tonight and across southeast Colorado through the day Monday. Expecting breezy south to southwest winds of 20 to 40 mph across the region this afternoon, leading to another round of critical fire weather conditions across the San Luis Valley this afternoon. Further east, southerly flow will keep enough low level moisture to preclude any fire weather highlights, despite temperatures warming back into the 70s to lower 80s, afternoon morning stratus burns off.

Increasing moisture and lift ahead of the system will develop snow across the Continental Divide, with snow and blowing snow likely creating hazardous travel across the higher mountain passes later tonight into early Monday morning, as the bora front pushes east. While snow accumulations may only tally up to to 6 inches, the strong winds may necessitate the addition of a brief winter weather highlight.

Further east, will see increasing west to southwest winds ahead of the front later tonight, with strong westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph and gusts of 65 to 75 mph, strongest over and near the southeast mountains, as the bora front continues to translate east early Monday morning. Latest HRRR and high res guidance indicates very high chances of 70-90 percent of winds >60 mph and 50-80 percent of winds >70 mph across this area, and have issued a high wind watch for the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mtns, the southern I-25 Corridor and Teller County and the Rampart Range. There is the potential for brief high wind criteria across extreme western portions of El Paso and Pueblo counties, as well as eastern Fremont county, with brute force winds behind the front, however will let later shifts get a look at more data before upgrading and possibly expanding the high wind watch.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Moderate to strong westerly flow aloft prevails across the Rockies through the day Monday, as the bora front continues out across the eastern Plains through the late morning. Models continue to indicate very dry air mixing down across the region through the day. This, combined with the gusty westerly winds of 30 to 60 mph, will create critical fire weather conditions areawide, and have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning across the San Luis Valley and portions of the plains, where fuels are deemed critical.
Temperatures cool behind the bora system on Monday, though are still around seasonal levels in the 60s to mid 70s across the Plains, and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, save 30s at the peaks.

Moderate westerly flow continues across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping mainly dry, save for some showers across the ContDvd, breezy and warm conditions in place through mid week, with the potential for critical fire weather conditions, especially across the San Luis Valley.

Cool and unsettled weather remains in the offing for Wednesday night through the end of the work week, as models continue to indicate a broad upper trough in place across the Rockies. This will allow for a few fronts to move across the region, as well as support shower chances, especially over and near the higher terrain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

While sky conditions will remain VFR through the 24 hour period, main concern will revolve around winds and timing of stronger gusts later tonight into Monday. Southerly winds are already increasing at KCOS and KALS and will pick up around 19z for KPUB with gusts up to 35 kts at all three terminals by late afternoon. Variable mid/high cloudiness will overspread the region. Winds may decrease at KCOS and KPUB this evening which will bring the possibility of wind shear to KCOS until a strong cold front crosses the mountains towards 09-10z increasing winds from the southwest to west bringing a brief round of gusts up to 45 to near 50 kts for both terminals. Winds will shift around from the west towards 18z at all three terminals though gusts may tail down to closer to 40 kts. There is a risk that KCOS winds could become sheltered from the west by Pikes Peak which could bring a lull in the winds around 12-15z until deep mixing spreads westerly winds back into the terminal. Have gone with the model consensus for now which keeps sustained southwesterly winds gusting to 40 kts at KCOS through the morning and will monitor the trends in the data for potential changes. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for COZ224-225- 232-233-237.
High Wind Watch from 9 PM MDT this evening through Monday morning for COZ072>075-079-080-087-088.
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for COZ081-082.

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