Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manitou Springs, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:12PM Thursday January 24, 2019 3:39 AM MST (10:39 UTC) Moonrise 10:39PMMoonset 10:48AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manitou Springs, CO
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location: 38.85, -104.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Pueblo, CO
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Fxus65 kpub 240607
afdpub
area forecast discussion
national weather service pueblo co
1107 pm mst Wed jan 23 2019

Update
Issued at 946 pm mst Wed jan 23 2019
made some slight adjustments to pops for Thursday, delaying onset
of snow showers across the plains until after 12z in line with
latest hrrr runs. 00z model runs have trended a tad heavier with
snowfall along south of the arkansas river valley during the late
morning and afternoon. Bumped up snowfall totals by an inch or so
on both the palmer divide and south of the arkansas river. Overall
snowfall totals appear to stay below advisory criteria and winds
will be much less than the previous system. However the upper trof
is fast moving which should limit accumulations. H7 winds weakly
go to an upslope component, but only briefly around 18z before
shifting back from the northwest as the upper trof axis passes.

So, snowfall may may a brief push into the lower eastern slopes of
the southeast mountains mid day... But should diminish quickly
during the late afternoon and evening. Highest snowfall totals
will be across the central mountains where current advisories
still look on track. Added some blowing snow across the higher
elevations through Thursday.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 255 pm mst Wed jan 23 2019
first off, lets talk about the snow... There is a winter weather
advisory in effect for the sawatch and northern mosquito mountains
from now through 1100 mst tomorrow. The impacts will be 8 to 10
inches over the sawatch mountains and 6 to 10 inches over the
northern mosquito mountains. Gusty winds will cause drifting and
lower visibilities, so travel in the highlighted regions will be
hazardous. Snow will fall other places as well, including the
eastern san juans, sangre de cristo, pikes peak, wet mountains,
and even across the plains. Snowfall amounts are as followed:
sawatch mountains: 8-10 inches
northern mosquito mountains: 6-10 inches
sangre de cristo mountains: 4-6 inches
pikes peak region: 4-6 inches
la garita mountains: 2-4 inches
eastern san juans mountains: 2-4 inches
palmer divide: 1-3 inches
pueblo and most of the eastern plains: 0.5 - 1 inch
colorado springs: trace
san luis valley: 0 inches - trace
the previously mentioned snow is coming from an upper level trough
and its associated cold front developing over the region. The wind
regime behind the front will be from the northeast which is an
efficient precipitation producer for the eastern plains, hence the
snowfall amounts. Colorado springs is seemingly going to be shadowed
by the palmer divide, but may have a short period in time, as the
front passes, where they receive and trace of snow. For snow totals,
the models were all over the place. The NAM had components I thought
made sense, the GFS had the understanding of the moist boundary
layer, and the ECMWF seemed to have closer to the amounts I wanted
in the grids, so I made a blend of those three models (as well as
some other edits) and inserted them into the grids.

Now lets talk about the temperatures... Low temperatures overnight
will once again be quite cold, but not as cold as last night. The
cloud cover that will develop will keep the minimum temperatures
warmer. The plains will span the teens, the san luis valley will
once again be frigid, albeit warmer than last night, with
temperatures in the negative teens in places, the upper rio grande
river valley will be below zero, the upper arkansas river valley
will be in the teens, and the mountains will range from the single
digits to the teens, depending on elevation.

I lowered the high temperatures down as well across the eastern
plains. The fresh snowfall did impact the temperatures across the
region today (5 to 10 degrees below guidance), so I am foreseeing
the same thing tomorrow afternoon. Highs will span the upper 20s to
low 30s over the plains, the 20s over the san luis valley, the upper
20s to low 30s over the upper arkansas river valley, and teens to
20s over the mountains.

The daily discussion of whether there will be fog developing in
the san luis valley must be mentioned. Tonight, some upper level
clouds will develop during prime fog development time, as well as
weak winds that should keep the boundary layer mixed, which should
result in no fog development over the valley. Met, mav, and ecs
guidance also agree that no fog will develop. With that being
said, the lasting snowpack always brings forth the opportunity for
fog to develop.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 255 pm mst Wed jan 23 2019

Enjoy the weekend, as early next week could get quite cold...

main concern during this long term forecast period will be early
next week as arctic air will likely push into the region as brutally
cold air drops down out of canada. It appears the brunt of the cold
air will remain to our east, but some of this chilly airmass will
likely move into the region after the weekend.

Friday...

weak perturbations in the modest NW flow aloft will move across the
region and these disturbances will likely initiate periods of light
snow over the central mtns, otherwise it will be mostly sunny with
breezy west winds. Anticipate ma temps in the 40s plains and 20s and
30s in the valleys.

Saturday...

a slightly stronger disturbance will move across the region early
Saturday morning and this system will likely bring a continued
threat of snow showers over the c mtns and variable cloudiness to
teh rest of there region, especially in the morning. Temps will warm
up on the plains with MAX temps in the upper 40s, with 20s
continuing in the san luis valley (slv) and 30s other valleys.

Sunday...

this will be the nicest day of the forecast period. Weak ridging
will move over the area and skies will be mostly clear with breezy
west winds. MAX temps this day will be quite warm, with highs in the
50s to l60s plains. The slv will likely continue cold with MAX temps
in the u20s. 40s will occur over the rest of the valleys.

Next week...

it is going to get cold starting Monday, the question is how cold??
ec guidance is the coldest of the bunch with highs expected only be
in the 20s while other guidance is not as cold. For now, I chopped a
few degrees off the MAX mins of the cr superblend procedure, and
believe this is probably not enough. Overall best chance of snow
will be Monday and Monday night as the arctic air moves into the
region. Best chance of snow will be the mtns plains interface. At
this time it does not look like a lot of snow, but a few inches is
not out of the question along the and west of the i-25 corridor.

Overall coldest day will be Tuesday, and Monday night and Tuesday
night could be very cold. Stay tuned! \ hodanish

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1038 pm mst Wed jan 23 2019
kals: latest satellite imagery indicates low clouds or fog
developing just east of the TAF site. Given low level moisture
and cold temperatures, this development is not too surprising.

Bufkit soundings have indicated fog potential, but not too
strongly. Therefore, have hinted at fog low clouds in the TAF for
this evening. High cloud cover moving in from the north should
limit the threat by early morning, withVFR conditions expected
thereafter. Winds will remain light through the period.

Kcos: a cold front will push through kcos by around mid morning,
with low clouds reducing conditions to MVFR into the early
afternoon. Snow showers are expected in the vicinity of the
airport, with a low chance for a snow shower passing over the
terminal. Winds will increase slightly out of the north during
this period as well, gusting up to 25 knots. Thereafter, expect
vfr conditions with typical diurnal wind patterns.

Kpub: during the mid morning, winds will increase out of the
northeast then east behind the cold front, gusting up to 25 knots.

Conditions should be reduced to MVFR with lowering CIGS and a
brief period of light snow showers lasting into the early
afternoon. Thereafter, expectVFR conditions with typical diurnal
wind patterns.

Pub watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 11 am mst Thursday for coz058-060.

Update... Kt
short term... Skelly
long term... Hodanish
aviation... Line


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Air Force Academy, CO11 mi1.7 hrsN 410.00 miMostly Cloudy21°F13°F73%1017.8 hPa
City Of Colorado Springs Municipal Airport, CO11 mi46 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy24°F17°F75%1019.1 hPa
Fort Carson, CO14 mi1.7 hrsN 310.00 miPartly Cloudy23°F12°F64%1020.9 hPa
Meadow Lake Airport, CO20 mi45 minWNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy21°F16°F81%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from COS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW11N9W5W4N4E3E5SE8SE7S9SE11SE8SE10NE10N7NE7N9N9N8E12N6W3Calm
1 day agoN21
G29
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G40
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N12N7N93NE4CalmCalmNE8N10NE11N12
2 days agoCalmS5W13
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W13
G28
E8SW22
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G38
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SW18
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SW14W6SW11W14
G21
N7E4N19
G25
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G41
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G31
NW21
G28

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Pueblo, CO (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pueblo, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.