Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellendale, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:24PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 8:04 AM EDT (12:04 UTC) Moonrise 6:24AMMoonset 7:11PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 545 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Isolated tstms this morning. Showers. A slight chance of tstms late.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N in the late evening and early morning...then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely early in the evening...then a chance of showers late in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening with vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 545 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front from south central new jersey through the delmarva will drift south today as low pressure in the ohio valley heads east, exiting seaward from the mid atlantic coast this evening. Large high pressure will build across the area Wednesday and then move east of the area by Friday morning. A low and its associated fronts will push across our region Friday and remain into Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellendale, DE
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location: 38.86, -75.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 280959
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
559 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will move across the middle atlantic region today
and then offshore tonight. Large high pressure will build across the
area Wednesday and then move east of the area by Friday morning. A
low and its associated fronts will push across our region Friday and
remain into Saturday. More high pressure will be over the area
Sunday and into Monday. Another disturbance may affect the area next
Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
6 am estf: chilly nnj and a struggle to reach our fcst max
temps. Groups/bands of heavy showers and isolated tstms should
continue in nj today and develop into the DELMARVA and SE pa
later this morning. Torrents of rain in stronger cells with
possibly pea sized hail as reported from lawrenceville around
305am this morning in a cell VIL of ~34 and well monitored by
our dix mesh.

Dfa (npw) cancelled ocean and monmouth where rains mixed out the
poor vsby.

Today... Murky again. Mostly cloudy. Fog and scattered heavy showers
and isolated tstms, especially north of the boundary this morning.

Possibly a stronger TSTM on the DELMARVA this aftn where best
mlcape of less than 800j. Weak speed shear so svr not expected.

Pwat 1.25 so brief torrents of rain possible in any shower.

Please follow later phi discussions and those of SPC regarding
svr potential.

Fcst basis: 50 50 blended 00z/28 gfs/nam mos.Temps were modified
downward using the 2m temps from hrrr and nam. Note..Thats max
temps in the mid to upper 40s sussex county, monmouth and ocean
counties. Going to be difficult for phl to reach 60. More
likely upper 50s there.

So the temperature forecast remains a concern with the
placement of the eastward- extending warm front again a
complicating factor. Errors in these values are likely given
timing of the rain cooling factor and where skies may thin to
allow a little sun.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday/
Any remaining showers end from west to east with a slightly
faster modeled end to the rain than 24 hours ago.

There could be some patchy fog, especially early at night in
the still moist boundary layer with a light north wind
increasing a bit late at night and trending northwest.

Fcst basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/28 gfs/nam mos.

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/
A rather steady progression of disturbances in the extended period
with a 2 day (or so) return period. Fair weather is expected for
much of Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure across canada ridges
southward across the area. Temperatures will be close to normal with
highs in the mid/upper 50s south and low/mid 50s north. Lows will be
in the mid/upper 30s north and low 40s south. It will be dry and
breezy Wednesday, but with wet ground conditions, fire weather
hazards will probably not be a big concern.

The first of two disturbances in the long term will affect much of
the area for much of Friday and Saturday. Low pressure will move up
the ohio valley Friday and then off the va tidewater area Saturday.

Our region will remain on the cooler nrly part of the system.

Occasional showers should occur much of the time. Depending on what
computer model, the rains could begin Thu night. Temperatures should
remain near or a little below normal thru the period. A couple
snowflakes across the highest elevations of the southern poconos are
possible.

Fair weather returns over the region for Sunday and persist into
Monday as high pressure to the north ridges across the area.

Temperatures will be a little above normal with upper 50s to low 60s
for highs in most areas. Another disturbance may approach for tue
with the latest ec model having a soaker system across the area and
the GFS much slower with the low and a fair weather day for tue. We
just have chc pops for now.

Aviation /10z Tuesday through Saturday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Variable conditions with general deterioration to ifr
conds in st/fog by 12z in the light northeast flow. The southerly
winds tafs of miv and acy could remainVFR much of the day except
lower in showers. Then considerable deterioration acy and miv
late today when the wind turns decidedly northeast.

Bands of showers and isolated tstms, some with brief heavy rain.

Light wind, mostly east or northeast at the TAF locations
except southeast to south at kmiv and kacy at least this
morning.

Tonight... MVFR/ifr conditions possible in showers and fog early...

becomingVFR late. Light north winds will become north to northwest
overnight around 10 knots.

Outlook...

wed/thu...VFR expected. Gusty north winds wed.

Fri/sat... Lower cigs/vsbys expected. Showers.

Marine
Dense fog advisory continues for the new jersey coastal waters
north of little egg. Areas south may also develop dense fog
this morning, but it is less certain at this time.

Winds/seas will be under advisory criteria through tonight.

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms through today, with
showers ending this evening.

Outlook...

wed... Sub-sca conditions.

Wed night/thu morning... Low end SCA near the nj coastal waters.

Thu afternoon thru fri... Sub-sca expected. Showers fri. Fri
night thru sat... SCA possible. Showers.

Equipment
Knel appears to be reading 10f too warm the past several days.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for anz450-451.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Drag 6a
short term... Drag
long term... O'hara
aviation... Drag/o'hara 6a
marine... Drag/o'hara
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 16 mi110 min S 2.9 60°F 1012 hPa56°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 18 mi47 min SSW 6 G 9.9 63°F 45°F1011.9 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi47 min SSE 7 G 11 52°F 46°F1011.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 31 mi47 min 48°F 44°F1011.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 38 mi47 min S 5.1 G 8 59°F 47°F1011 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 41 mi47 min SSW 9.9 G 11 47°F 45°F1013.3 hPa
OCSM2 41 mi185 min 2 ft
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi47 min E 1 G 1 53°F 47°F1011.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi47 min 49°F 45°F1012 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S5
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E17
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G23
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E11
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E7
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W12
G15
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G23
W11
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SW6
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E5
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E24
G30
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G24
E17
G21
E15
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G21
NE15
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G19
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G23
E19
E19
G24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE12 mi71 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F54°F80%1012 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi67 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast60°F59°F100%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SW12
G21
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SW11SW8SW4SE7S6S7S6S6S7S6S8S7S6SW6SW6SW6
1 day agoE11E9
G18
E10NE11
G17
E11NE9E11E13NE10E10E9E10E8E7NE4E4NE3E4SE5SE3SE3SE5S4S6
2 days agoSW9W9
G19
SW11W9SW9SW7SW9SW9SW7SW5S3CalmE10
G20
E10E14NE9E9NE14NE11E11E11E12
G21
E12E11

Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
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Tue -- 04:06 AM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:01 AM EDT     5.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:28 PM EDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:21 PM EDT     5.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.72.30.9-0.2-0.6-0.30.82.33.855.55.24.331.50.2-0.5-0.50.41.93.54.85.65.5

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
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Tue -- 02:09 AM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:50 AM EDT     1.82 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:30 PM EDT     -1.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-1.5-1.7-1.5-0.80.111.61.81.50.80-0.8-1.4-1.7-1.7-1.1-0.20.71.51.91.71.10.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.