Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellendale, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:21PM Sunday May 28, 2017 12:29 PM EDT (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:39AMMoonset 10:20PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 949 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 949 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak area of high pressure will shift east of the new england coast today, keeping a warm front to our south and west through tonight. A stronger low pressure system will move into southeastern canada Monday, bringing a cold front through our area. A couple of cold fronts will then move through our region through about midweek, before high pressure builds toward our area Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellendale, DE
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location: 38.86, -75.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 281439
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1039 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
A weak area of high pressure will shift east of the new england
coast this morning, keeping a warm front to our south and west
today into tonight. A stronger low pressure system will move
into southeastern canada Monday, bringing a cold front through
our area. A couple of cold fronts will then move through our
region through about midweek, before high pressure builds toward
our area Thursday and Friday. A weak cold front however may
settle across our area Friday night and Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure located off the new england coast early this
morning will progress northeastward today. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary will extend from the ohio river valley and the great
lakes southeastward to the waters off virginia and north
carolina.

Skies have been mostly sunny in many areas so far today. Trends
will lead to skies becoming mostly cloudy by later this
afternoon as low level moisture from both offshore and to the
sw increase over the area. While most areas will be rainfree
today, be have indicated a slight chc or small chc pops for
delmarva and SE pa SW nj for the late afternoon. Some of the
recent models are trending to pops being a bit higher thru 00z
that the overnight data.

High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 60s to
the middle 70s. Readings should get no higher than the middle
60s right along the coast due to the onshore flow. We have
adjusted some of the hourly temps up for the late morning, with
the trends showing our previous temps a bit cooler than
observations.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
A mid level trough over the central part of the country early
this morning will work its way eastward. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the feature and they should
move into our region from the west tonight. As a result, we will
carry categorical or likely probabilities of precipitation for
much of our forecast area. Generally, rainfall amounts should
favor the quarter to half inch range.

The continued onshore flow and the precipitation are
anticipated to result in the development of low clouds over much
of our region for tonight.

Low temperatures should favor the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Summary... Remaining shower thunder chances through the first
half of this upcoming week. Temperatures overall on the
mild warm side.

Synoptic setup... A closed low initially centered near the upper
great lakes will slowly shift eastward through much of this
upcoming week. While the core of this feature is forecast to
remain well to our northwest and north, spokes of energy will
rotate around the parent closed low. A potentially stronger
short wave is forecast to shift eastward Wednesday, which is
tied to a cold front. This short wave may sharpen the southern
extent of the long wave trough some, potentially enhancing a
ribbon of lift. As we go toward the end of the week and to start
next weekend, the closed low shifts closer to the canadian
maritimes and perhaps weakens some. Additional short waves on
the western and southern side may amplify the trough across the
northeast Friday into Saturday before the entire system shifts
more eastward. This all results in a few episodes of possible
showers thunder, although exact timing and coverage is less
certain. We used a model continuity blend for Monday through
Tuesday night, then blended in the 00z wpc guidance thereafter.

Some adjustments were then made following additional
collaboration with our neighboring offices.

For Monday and Tuesday... The center of a closed low is forecast
to move to a position between the great lakes and james bay
canada. A stronger short wave is forecast to be lifting across
the northeast Monday, with a narrow trough axis possibly taking
on some negative tilt. This will produce a ribbon of enhanced
forcing, resulting in a band of showers and perhaps thunder.

This looks to quickly lift to our north and east during the
morning. A weakening cold front then moves through during
Monday, however there may not be much in the way of forcing once
the earlier morning band of showers clears the area. The
forecast soundings overall indicate the column dries out in the
afternoon especially for the central and southern areas. As a
result, pops were lowered faster but still kept in some low pops
in through the day. Another cold front or surface trough
arrives during Tuesday, and with short wave energy accompanying
it a band or two of showers will be possible. There could be
just enough instability to allow for some thunder Tuesday
afternoon. Daytime temperatures are expected to be mild warm,
however the far north and northeast areas on Monday may be
cooler depending on the amount of clearing.

For Wednesday and Thursday... As the center of the closed low
slowly shifts across southeastern canada, a stronger embedded
short wave allows for the southern part of the long wave trough
to amplify across the northeast Wednesday. This should be
reflected by another cold front at the surface. While some
instability is forecast to develop during Wednesday, soundings
generally show it being meager with any convection being low-
topped. If the boundary layer warms more, low-level lapse rates
would steepen and result in a bit more instability. Therefore, a
thunder mention was expanded south and eastward some in the
afternoon. The challenge is how much coverage occurs with
showers thunder Wednesday. Some guidance suggest coverage could
be fairly widespread in the afternoon. For now, kept mostly
chance pops with the idea there will be at least scattered
activity around. The flow aloft may start to turn more zonal
Thursday allowing for a dry day, however more short wave energy
diving into the base of the closed low looks to start another
eastbound amplification.

For Friday and Saturday... The details of the forecast during
this time frame mostly depend on the speed of the closed low to
our north. While it will gradually shift eastward and probably
eventually weaken, some guidance shows more amplification as
strong short wave energy slides across the southern portion of
the trough. This sends another cold front our way, which may be
mostly just to our north. The evolution of the energy and
therefore chances for convection is less certain. The entire
system eventually shifts closer to the canadian maritimes with
less influence on our region. As of now, kept slight chance pops
for Friday and dry on Saturday.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions are anticipated, although there should be a fair
amount of cloud cover for much of the day.

Ceilings are expected to lower into the ifr range for tonight
with the arrival of showers and scattered thunderstorms from the
west, along with an onshore wind flow. The timing and coverage
of thunderstorms for tonight remains a bit uncertain so we have
mentioned only showers in the TAF at this time.

A light and variable wind early this morning should settle into
the southeast today at 5 to 10 knots. The wind direction is
forecast to back toward the east tonight.

Outlook...

Monday... MVFR ifr conditions with some showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the morning, then improving in the
afternoon and at night as a cold front moves through. Some fog
or low clouds are possible late at night.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Some possible fog or low clouds to
start Tuesday, otherwise generallyVFR through Wednesday. Some
showers and thunderstorms possible mainly each afternoon and
evening, however timing and coverage is less certain.

Thursday...VFR is anticipated with dry conditions.

Marine
As high pressure moves away to our northeast today, a southeast
to east wind is forecast to increase to 10 to 15 knots. Wind
speeds may rise into the 15 to 20 knot range for tonight,
especially on the waters off new jersey.

Wave heights of 2 to 3 feet on our ocean waters today should
build to 3 to 4 feet tonight. It appears as though they may
reach 5 feet on our coastal waters from north of ocean city nj
to sandy hook. We have placed those areas under a small craft
advisory beginning at midnight.

Rip currents...

waves off the coast are forecast to be in the 2 to 3 foot range
for today. An southeast to east wind is expected around 10
knots or so. It appears as though the risk for the development
of dangerous rip current will be low for much of the day.

However, it may begin to approach moderate toward evening as
wind speeds increase gradually.

The outlook for Monday is a low risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents, as winds should become about 10 knots or
less mainly from the southeast and south and waves lower some.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday... East to southeast winds are forecast
to be strongest (gusts near 25 knots) Monday morning across the
northern ocean zones before diminishing. This should maintain
seas to about 5 feet at least in the morning before subsiding.

Therefore, a small craft advisory has been issued for our three
northern ocean zones through 16z Monday. Otherwise, generally
sub-advisory conditions are expected through Thursday.

Some showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly Monday
morning and again Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

Tides coastal flooding
The development of an onshore flow for today into tonight and
the continued high astronomical tides should result in another
round of minor coastal flooding tonight. As a result, we will
issue another coastal flood advisory for tonight's high tide. It
will cover the coastal counties of new jersey and delaware, as
well as the counties along delaware bay and the lower delaware
river up to the area just below the commodore barry bridge.

Based on the guidance and on the fact that the astronomical
tides are decreasing as we move away from the new moon,
tonight's coastal flood advisory should be the last one for a
while.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 3 am edt
Monday for njz012>014-020>027.

Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am edt
Monday for njz016.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 3 am edt
Monday for dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am edt
Monday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to noon edt Monday
for anz450>452.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Iovino po
short term... Iovino
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse iovino po
marine... Gorse iovino
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 16 mi75 min E 8 68°F 1014 hPa63°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 18 mi48 min ESE 11 G 16 65°F 64°F1012.8 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi42 min E 11 G 18 65°F 64°F1013.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 31 mi42 min SSE 12 G 16 66°F 65°F1013.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 38 mi48 min 73°F 71°F
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi40 min ENE 9.7 G 12 62°F 60°F2 ft1013.3 hPa (+0.3)60°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi42 min ESE 8.9 G 11 72°F 65°F1012.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi42 min 70°F 66°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE12 mi36 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F60°F60%1013 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi32 minE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F68°F100%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4Calm4SE6NE10E8NE10SE4E5SE4NE4CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6--SE11SE9
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W866NW4W3W3W4W3W33W4CalmCalmCalmN3Calm3S4
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Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:10 AM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:56 AM EDT     4.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:10 PM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.25.54.22.61-0.1-0.6-0.40.623.44.54.84.53.72.51.10.1-0.4-0.112.54.15.4

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:02 AM EDT     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:45 AM EDT     1.78 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:14 PM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:56 PM EDT     2.01 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.5-1.3-1.8-2-1.7-1-0.10.91.61.81.40.7-0.1-0.8-1.3-1.6-1.5-0.80.111.721.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.