Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellendale, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:49PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 11:03 AM EST (16:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:30PMMoonset 10:50PM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 918 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until noon est today...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through late Thursday night...
Rest of today..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft late this morning, then 2 ft or less.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Thu night..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight, then becoming W late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 918 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will gradually build into the region today before moving across to the north of our area tonight. An area of low pressure will develop off of the southeast coast late Wednesday, then track up along the mid atlantic coast Thursday and Thursday night before moving into new england on Friday. High pressure will then return Friday night through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellendale, DE
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location: 38.86, -75.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 141424
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
924 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will gradually build into the region today before
moving across to the north of our area tonight. An area of low
pressure will develop off of the southeast coast late Wednesday,
then track up along the mid atlantic coast Thursday and Thursday
night before moving into new england on Friday. High pressure will
then return Friday night through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
915 am update... Satellite imagery depicts a bit more in the way
of high clouds around than previously forecast so we increased
sky cover in the grids through today. Otherwise, no major
changes to the forecast at this time.

Previous discussion... High pressure located in the middle
mississippi river valley early this morning will build across
the great lakes today. Dry air will continue to work its way
into our region from the northwest. The high clouds overhead are
forecast to thin and the areas of stratocumulus are expected to
decrease as the cold advection lessens.

We are anticipating a northwest wind around 10 mph. Maximum
temperatures are forecast to range from the 30s in the poconos and
in far northern new jersey to the middle 40s in eastern maryland,
southern delaware and far southern new jersey. The expected readings
are about 15 degrees below normal for november 14.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
The cold surface high is expected to move from the eastern great
lakes to northern new england tonight. Low pressure is forecast to
begin moving up the southeast coast. As a result, we are
anticipating an increase in high and mid level clouds.

The leading edge of the precipitation with the system approaching
from the south may reach eastern maryland and southern delaware
toward daybreak on Thursday. The air should be cold enough at the
onset to result in some light snow and sleet in spots. The
precipitation is expected to begin as rain along the coast.

A light northwest to northeast wind is expected for tonight. Lows
are forecast to be mainly in the 20s in our counties in eastern
pennsylvania and new jersey, and in the lower 30s in delaware and
northeastern maryland.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Thursday through Friday... The main event of the extended makes its
presence known on Thursday and continues into Friday. The low
pressure system starts to organize itself off the south carolina
coast by Thursday morning. The system starts off as a double
barreled low with the second low located inland across the tennessee
valley. As the coastal low starts to deepen off the carolina coast,
it becomes the more dominant surface low and the inland low
eventually gets absorbed into it. The coastal low will track up the
mid-atlantic coast on Thursday, passing off the new jersey coast
Thursday night before heading to the northeast and into new
england on Friday and then off to the canadian maritimes Friday
night. Above the surface, a strong upper level low located over
the midwestern states early Thursday will move up through the
ohio valley then starts to open up into a deep trough as it
crosses our area late Thursday into Friday morning.

This system is loaded with moisture and liquid precipitation
amounts around 1.5-2.0 inches look likely. With how wet we have
been recently there is the potential for some localized flooding
across the region as moderate to heavy rainfall occurs.

Additionally, with leaves still on the ground in many areas,
storm drains may be affected and could exacerbate some of the
local issues. There is potential for a flood watch and one may
be needed later today.

Temperatures at the onset of the event will mainly be below freezing
across the region. This means a mix of winter precipitation at the
onset with a chance for some snow sleet freezing rain to fall.

Central and southern delmarva, along with portions of southern new
jersey will remain warmer keeping the precipitation in the form of
plain rain. As the low tracks northward, warmer air will surge
northward and precipitation will change over to rain through
much of the area with mixed precipitation more likely north and
west of i- 78. Expect accumulating snow (2 to 4 inches with some
locally higher amounts through the poconos) mainly north and
west of i-78 with some lower amounts (less than an inch)
possible down through the i-95 corridor.

One big concern is the freezing rain vs sleet potential across the
northern portions of the forecast area. Model soundings continue to
show a layer of warm air aloft with a layer of colder air below it.

Just how deep that warm layer is vs the cold layer will impact the
precipitation type. Current model trends are colder which plays more
towards a sleet scenario. More sleet would also cut down on the snow
accumulations but remember that sleet is counted as snow and may be
reflected as such on our snow total maps. However, still feel that
freezing rain will be an issue, especially north of i-80 where up to
a quarter inch of ice remains possible.

One other item of note is that there is a slight chance we could
hear a rumble or two of thunder as the system wraps itself up and
heads to the north on Friday.

Although the bulk of storm is now a day away, there is still some
uncertainty associated with it. Temperatures, both at and above
the surface, will play a huge role with respect to ptype and
while things are becoming clearer each model run, they are still
bouncing around too much to lend high confidence to this
forecast. Another issue is the possibility of a dry slot
occuring later Thursday which could cut off precipitation and
lower amounts. One thing that is consistent is that
precipitation will be moderate to heavy at times and this will
certainly contribute to making travel difficult. No winter storm
watch will be issued as confidence in reaching warning criteria
in any part of our forecast area is low. However, it does look
like we will reach advisory criteria in parts of the area and
there is likely to be a winter weather advisory issued later
today as more details become clearer.

Friday night through Sunday... High pressure will start to nose up
into the region late Friday and last through the weekend. A weak
cold front may approach from the west on Saturday but seems to have
limited moisture associated with it, and remains dry as it moves
through Saturday night into Sunday.

Monday through Tuesday... An upper level shortwave will cross the
region Monday with a chance for some rain snow showers across the
region. High pressure will then build into our area for Tuesday.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots with occasional gusts to
15 to 20 knots.

Tonight...VFR. Northwest wind 8 knots or less becoming
northeast.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday... MainlyVFR conditions expected early with
deteriorating conditions through the day. Precipitation will
overspread the terminals from south to north with MVFR or lower
conditions expected. Precip may start as snow as far southeast as
ilg phl pne ttn, then shift to fzra pl before going to rain
potentially late. Snow fzra pl likely at krdg and kabe through the
event with a chance that it ends as plain rain on Friday. Precip
will continue through Thursday night, gradually ending from south to
north Friday afternoon. Northeast winds around 10 to 20 knots
(strongest towards kacy) with gusts of 25 to 30 knots (gust 30 to 40
knots possible at kacy) possible through Thursday night becoming
northwest around 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots
possible on Friday. Wind shear likely Thursday night into Friday.

Moderate confidence.

Friday night through Sunday... Improving conditions Friday night with
a return toVFR expected to occur late. West to northwest winds
around 10 knots on Saturday with winds less than 10 knots on Sunday.

Marine
High pressure is forecast to build over the coastal waters of new
jersey and delaware from the northwest today. Low pressure will
begin to approach from the south tonight.

Northwest wind gusts around 25 knots are anticipated for this
morning. As a result, a small craft advisory remains in effect for
our ocean waters and for delaware bay. We will continue the small
craft advisory into this afternoon on our ocean waters to allow seas
to subside below 5 feet. Conditions for tonight are expected to
remain below the small craft advisory criteria (winds of 25 knots
and waves of 5 feet).

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday... A gale watch has been issued for the
coastal waters of nj and de and the delaware bay for Thursday and
Thursday night. Winds and seas will increase as a coastal storm
develops to our south and starts to move up over our waters. Seas
will build on Thursday becoming 6 to 12 feet. East to northeast
winds will increase during the day Thursday, increasing to 20 to 30
knots overnight with higher gusts. Winds will turn to the northwest
on Friday, remaining around 15 to 25 knots.

Friday night... Gale force gusts are expected to end before Friday
night but small craft advisory conditions will continue. The
northwest winds will start to diminish overnight and lose their
gustiness by early Saturday morning. Seas are expected to drop below
5 feet Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected. Northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots on Saturday and
lighter on Sunday. Seas around 2 to 4 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night
for anz430-431-450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until noon est today for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Fitzsimmons iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... Meola
aviation... Iovino meola
marine... Iovino meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi73 min 16 G 19 59°F5 ft1030.2 hPa (+2.8)

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE12 mi2.2 hrsNNW 610.00 miFair42°F26°F53%1030.9 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi67 minWNW 1210.00 miFair40°F23°F52%1031.1 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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2 days ago4N535333CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
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Wed -- 01:15 AM EST     3.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:32 AM EST     0.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:33 PM EST     4.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:34 PM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:49 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.83.73.32.721.4111.42.23.24.14.74.74.43.72.921.20.80.81.21.9

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
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Wed -- 02:02 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:12 AM EST     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:47 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:14 AM EST     1.04 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:58 PM EST     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:06 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40-0.4-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.40.10.50.8110.60.2-0.3-0.7-0.9-1-0.8-0.5-00.30.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.