Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellendale, DE

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Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:51PM Monday August 20, 2018 5:09 AM EDT (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:57PMMoonset 12:14AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 340 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves around 3 ft. A slight chance of rain and drizzle early this morning, then a slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the late evening and overnight. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 340 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A stationary front remains situated south of delmarva as high pressure noses in from the north. The high moves offshore on Tuesday as that stationary front returns north as a warm front Tuesday night. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the north and west to close out the work week. The high then moves offshore early in the weekend as a cold front approaches from the west late in the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellendale, DE
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location: 38.86, -75.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 200747
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
347 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Synopsis
A stationary front remains situated south of DELMARVA as high
pressure noses in from the north. The high moves offshore on
Tuesday as that stationary front returns north as a warm front
Tuesday night. A cold front moves across the region on
Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the north and west to
close out the work week. The high then moves offshore early in
the weekend as a cold front approaches from the west late in the
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A rather tricky forecast today, as the region will be
downstream of several perturbations ejecting from a fairly
potent vort MAX moving slowly through the central plains of the
u.S. The strongest of these perturbations will be approaching
the central mid-atlantic during peak heating, and high-
resolution guidance is suggesting development of diurnally-
enhanced convection just downstream. The trek of the
perturbation is mainly to the south of the cwa, but large-scale
lift will brush the southern portions of the area today. Will be
interesting to see if central southern DELMARVA are able to tap
into some of the instability (albeit elevated) looming to the
south of the front in the central southern mid-atlantic. Several
recent simulations of the hrrr suggest this potential exists,
but the NAM nest and the WRF simulations are a little less
aggressive and or farther south with this convective
development.

Nevertheless, given the decent lift in advance of the
perturbation, I increased pops south of dover today and included
a slight chance of thunderstorms based on potential for some
elevated instability to develop. Meanwhile, the current light
rain drizzle in much of the southern half of the area is not
well forecast among the models (nor is it well-sampled from
radar owing to its rather low generation region). Currently,
think the continued advection from the east- northeast will
shunt this area of precip (slowly) southward as it gradually
shrinks in size. This is fairly low confidence, however, and i
think keeping a slight chance of showers (or at least sprinkles)
today is prudent, especially near the coast and south of i-76
(in closer proximity to larger-scale lift and farther from the
growing influence of the surface high nosing southward).

Otherwise, the main story today will be the continued east-
northeast low-level flow in most of the area. There are some
indications (via model soundings) that some drying will occur in
the tropospheric profiles, but the signal is mixed at best.

With this in mind, I was a little more pessimistic than the
consensus sky forecast today, but somewhat more optimistic than
our previous forecast. Think the current overcast will become
more of a partly-to-mostly cloudy sky during the day, with max
temperatures near or slightly below average.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
Tonight, the perturbation moving through the mid-atlantic will
be shifting slowly offshore, with shortwave ridging likely to
enter the region just upstream. However, onshore flow will
continue in this regime, and residual moisture in the low levels
will likely keep chances for low clouds and
drizzle sprinkles light showers around. As a result, I was hard-
pressed to keep pops out of the forecast (especially given what
has transpired early this morning). So the forecast includes
slight chances of light showers for most of the area tonight,
though given model soundings, would not be surprised if little
or nothing occurs... And if anything does occur, it might be in
the form of drizzle or light sprinkles rather than showers.

Of higher confidence is the increase and lowering of clouds
with time, and this will keep temperatures from falling too
much. Given observed temperatures early this morning, I thought
mav met MOS looked a little too warm, so I went a touch below
these numbers, but not by much given the above-mentioned
modifying effects of the increasing lowering clouds.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
High pressure centered over new england and the gulf of maine
slowly lifts to the north and east on Tuesday. Meanwhile, low
pressure moving from the midwest and into the great lakes will
lift the stationary front south of the region north as a warm
front late in the day and at night. Surface dewpoints climb into
the 70s, and this results in pwats increasing to over 2 inches
as most of the region will be in the warm sector ahead of an
approaching cold front.

A pre-frontal trough moves into the region late Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop from west to east, and thunderstorms may produce locally
heavy rain Tuesday night.

The cold front will be through western portions of the forecast
area Wednesday morning, and then the front works its way east
during the day. Meanwhile, a strong h5 trough shortwave combo
moves through the region Wednesday afternoon and evening behind
that front. This will keep at least scattered showers in the
region through the day.

High pressure then builds in from the north and west with a
cooler and much dryer airmass on Thursday. Surface dewpoints
fall into the 50s, and 1000-500 mb thicknesses will fall to
555-560 dam. With highs generally in the 70s to low 80s, it will
feel quite pleasant, especially compared to the warmth and
humidity of most of august so far.

Even lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will fall into the
50s and low 60s, which will be a welcome relief.

High pressure moves over the area Friday, then offshore on
Saturday. Temperatures and humidity levels begin to creep back
up over the weekend, then there may be a return to some
unsettled weather to start of next week.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight... GeneralVFR expected to predominate north of
phl and MVFR south east of phl as northeast winds continue
around 10 kts. Some drizzle light rain is expected in the
phl ilg acy miv corridor for the next few hours. CIGS vsbys will
likely be somewhat variable at the terminals, especially
between phl and acy as the area of drizzle light rain shifts
southward slowly. Low confidence.

Monday... GeneralVFR conditions expected, though lingering MVFR
cigs may exist in the morning, especially at miv acy. Winds
east northeast 5 to 15 kts. Moderate confidence.

Monday night... CIGS are expected to deteriorate to MVFR with
time, though exact timing of this is uncertain. Vsbys may stay
somewhat elevated given the thickening cloud cover, however.

Winds east- northeast 5 to 10 kts. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Tuesday night... GenerallyVFR. Showers and
thunderstorms will result in MVFR ifr CIGS vsbys late Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night with locally heavy rain. Patchy fog
possible Tuesday night. SE winds 10 kt or less Tuesday will
become S Tuesday evening, then SW late Tuesday night as a cold
front begins to move through the region.

Wednesday... Lingering showers into the afternoon, then
conditions will improve toVFR. SW winds 10 kt or less will
become NW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon.

Thursday through Friday...VFR. Localized late night and early
morning vsby restrictions in fog are possible. Wind less than 10
knots veering gradually from north to southeast.

Marine
Winds have diminished below advisory criteria on the atlantic
waters early this morning, but seas remain elevated (generally
5-6 feet). Wave guidance has done poorly with the wave forecast
the past 24 hours, underplaying the elevated seas, especially
off the delaware beaches. As such, I increased the seas forecast
by 0.5-1 ft today. This also meant keeping the advisory in
place as is, since I suspect the models are too quickly lowering
seas below criteria.

Northeast winds will continue today around 10 to 20 kts with
gusts expected to remain below criteria. Winds are expected to
become more easterly tonight as they diminish to 5 to 15 kts.

Seas should be below advisory criteria late this afternoon into
tonight.

There is a slight chance of showers (and even a storm off the
delaware coast) today and tonight, with potential visibility
restrictions and locally higher waves winds in their proximity.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday... There is a chance for 25 kt wind gusts
on the ocean waters Tuesday night and Wednesday, along with
seas building close to 5 feet on the ocean waters. Otherwise,
sub-sca conditions expected.

Rip currents...

there is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents on the new jersey coast today, with a low risk on the
delaware coast. With northeast winds 10 to 20 kts and seas of
3-6 feet, conditions remain somewhat favorable for rip current
formation in the new jersey surf zone today. Winds and seas will
be a little less favorable on the delaware coast, especially
given the orientation of the delaware coastline to the expected
wind direction.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
anz450>455.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Mps
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 16 mi99 min N 2.9 71°F 1018 hPa67°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 18 mi45 min ENE 14 G 16 74°F 77°F1016.9 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 20 mi45 min ENE 13 G 16 73°F 1017.6 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi39 min ENE 4.1 G 7 72°F 74°F1016.8 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 31 mi39 min NE 12 G 14 70°F 80°F1017.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 38 mi39 min 72°F 85°F1018.5 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 41 mi45 min E 5.1 G 7 75°F 74°F1016.9 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi79 min SW 14 G 16 81°F 80°F6 ft1016.5 hPa (-0.0)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi39 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 80°F1018.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi39 min 70°F 80°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE12 mi75 minNE 810.00 miOvercast74°F71°F91%1017.2 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi73 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast69°F66°F92%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN4N3W7NW4NE7N8E10NE12E8NE11NE8NE10NE9NE11NE9NE6N5NE5NE9NE8NE8NE7
1 day agoSW3S6SW6W7W6W7W7W8SW9W7W6W6SW5SW5SW4SW3SW6SW7SW9SW4SW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSW3SW6SW7SW7SW7SW9S10S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
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Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:08 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:32 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.32.133.63.93.83.42.71.91.20.80.71.22.13.24.24.84.94.63.9321.3

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
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Mon -- 12:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:53 AM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:14 AM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:09 PM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:05 PM EDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.30.70.80.70.4-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.4-00.50.91.110.70.3-0.2-0.6-0.9-1-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.