Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellendale, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday May 24, 2018 9:39 PM EDT (01:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:21PMMoonset 2:12AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 915 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Overnight..S winds around 10 kt, becoming sw. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Scattered tstms. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Scattered tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Mon..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 915 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure across our region will continue to shift offshore through Friday. A weak cold front moves southward across at least parts of our area late Saturday night and Sunday, then stalls in our area through Monday. A secondary cold front moves through during Tuesday, followed by high pressure Tuesday night before it moves offshore during Wednesday. A warm front may approach on Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellendale, DE
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location: 38.86, -75.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 250045
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
845 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure across our region will continue to shift offshore
through Friday. A weak cold front moves southward across at
least parts of our area late Saturday night and Sunday, then
stalls in our area through Monday. A secondary cold front moves
through during Tuesday, followed by high pressure Tuesday night
before it moves offshore during Wednesday. A warm front may
approach on Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
High pressure located off the middle atlantic coast will
continue to influence our weather overnight. We are anticipating
a clear sky and a light wind. If the wind favors any direction,
it should be the southwest.

The air mass is expected to remain rather dry. However,
localized fog is possible as dew point readings creep upward.

Minimum temperatures are forecast to range mainly from the
middle 50s to the lower 60s in our region.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
High pressure continues to build east on Friday. Winds shift to
more of a southwest flow and tap into some gulf of mexico
moisture. Surface dewpoints will rise into the 50s and humidity
levels along with temperatures will creep up a bit. Afternoon
sea breezes will likely not make as much westward progression
due to the increasing offshore wind. Most likely areas that
could sea breeze will be right along the nj coast.

Warmer temperatures expected with highs generally in the mid to
upper 80s, except a bit cooler in the mountains and along the
coast.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Summary... Very warm and more humid over the weekend, although
some cooling should occur Sunday into Monday. Increasing chances
of showers thunder during the holiday weekend, with perhaps
some drying as we go through next week.

Synoptic overview... The flow aloft is forecast to become more
blocky in nature with a closed low in the west and a closed low
in the vicinity of the central gulf coast. Meanwhile, a ridge is
near the plains with some troughing sliding near the great
lakes and northeast. This offers not much change, however the
details become less clear especially with the extent of impacts
associated with a cold front sliding southward from new england
later in the weekend and early next week. In addition, tropical
moisture is forecast to surge northward from the gulf of mexico
associated with the aforementioned trough aloft and surface low
development. This all occurs as a ridge remains situated off the
southeast u.S. Coast. The theme in the guidance continues to
show increasing chances for convection during the holiday
weekend. It does not appear to be a washout, however there looks
to be times where it will be convectively active. The trough in
eastern canada and the northeast may then amplify enough during
Monday and Tuesday along with the passage of a cold front to
push the deeper moisture to our south and east.

For Friday night... High pressure at the surface is forecast to
be centered in the western atlantic. The flow across the mid-
atlantic is more zonal, however a short wave trough is forecast
to be shifting east-southeastward from the midwest and upper
great lakes. A continued southwesterly flow will allow for
increasing moisture advection therefore it will start to become
a bit more humid through the night. A precipitable water surge
to around 1.5 inches is forecast to overspread at least the
southern half of the area toward daybreak Saturday. The gradual
increase in surface dew points will result in a warmer night,
and some higher level clouds may cross the area at times.

For Saturday and Sunday... A ridge remains centered off the
southeast u.S. Coast with a ridge into the plains and closed low
out west. Some northern stream energy however allows for a
short wave trough to slide eastward from the great lakes region
while a more pronounced upper-level trough moves across the
canadian maritimes. The latter has surface low pressure tied to
it and a trailing cold front is forecast to settle southward
into our area. The forecast challenge continues to figure out
how far south this front gets Sunday and how strong the
southwestward push from high pressure is for a time. Prior to
this, southwesterly flow will maintain very warm and humid air
across the region. A plume of precipitable water around 2 inches
overspreads the area Saturday. Within this plume, increasing
instability along with some northern stream short wave energy
should initiate some convection especially from late morning
through the afternoon on Saturday. This should be mostly focused
across the western zones to start, potentially tied to a weak
lee side trough and terrain circulations, then shift eastward
through the day. Convection on Saturday could be enhanced some
if the short wave trough from the west ends up providing more
support.

There will be additional convection on Sunday especially in the
afternoon and evening as the surface cold front sags southward
which should provide a bit more convergence. While the deeper
tropical moisture plume may reside just to our south, plenty of
moisture in our area combined with possible slower storm motion
and training may result in a local very heavy rain flood threat.

The extent of this is of lower confidence at this time.

For Monday and Tuesday... The overall pattern does not change
much, although there may be more of an influence of an upper-
level trough in the northeast. While a residual frontal zone
should be in our vicinity Monday, low pressure is forecast to
track well to our north with another cold front moving through
during Tuesday. Some convection should occur especially Monday,
however the extent of it is less certain. There will be a
tropical moisture plume still just to our south, and if this is
more involved across our area then an enhancement to daytime
convection is possible. Despite another cold front moving
through on Tuesday, showers thunder may end up being more
limited especially if a short wave trough is a little faster and
allows for some drying to occur from the northwest.

For Wednesday and Thursday... A trough aloft may still be across
the gulf coast beneath a ridge to its north. The ridge across
parts of the great lakes should shift eastward some, allowing
surface high pressure to build into our area. A front will be
lurking to our south with tropical moisture residing to its
south, therefore the placement of this will be key regarding any
shower thunder chances for parts of our area. More uncertainty
at this time frame as convective changes will depend on the
track of a trough aloft as well as a plume of tropical moisture
as high pressure shifts offshore.

Aviation 01z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR with a clear sky. Light and variable wind.

Friday...VFR with a mainly clear sky. Southwest wind increasing
to 8 to 12 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR. Southwest winds less than 10 knots.

Saturday and Sunday... Times of sub-vfr conditions with some
showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon and
evening.

Monday and Tuesday... Sub-vfr conditions possible at times due
to a chance of some showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Wind settling into the SW overnight at 10 kt or less. Pressure
gradient tightens on Friday, but think there will be a strong
enough inversion to keep wind gusts capped at sub-sca criteria.

Best chances for 25 kt wind gusts Friday afternoon will be in
northern nj ocean waters, where the ambrose jet may result in
locally stronger wind gusts. Seas on ocean 2-4 feet.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday... Southwesterly winds may gust to
near 25 knots at times. The overall mixing should be limited
some due to a much warmer airmass moving over the cooler waters.

Seas should be 4 feet or less.

Sunday and Monday... The conditions should be below small craft
advisory criteria, however a cold front from the north sags into
our area and this will have an impact on the wind direction.

Tuesday... The conditions should be below small craft advisory
criteria.

Rip currents...

there is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents on Friday. The wind should favor the southwest around
10 to 15 knots and wave heights are forecast to be 2 to 3 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Iovino
short term... Mps
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse iovino
marine... Gorse mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 16 mi129 min SE 2.9 72°F 1020 hPa54°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 18 mi57 min S 6 G 8 68°F 69°F1020.6 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 20 mi51 min S 12 G 13 66°F 1020.9 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi51 min S 6 G 8 64°F 67°F1020.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 38 mi51 min 73°F 77°F1021.4 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 41 mi57 min SSW 6 G 7 66°F 67°F1021.6 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi49 min S 5.8 G 7.8 62°F 62°F2 ft1021.5 hPa (-0.0)60°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi51 min S 1.9 G 4.1 73°F 73°F1020.1 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi51 min 68°F 70°F1019.8 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE12 mi45 minS 610.00 miFair67°F55°F66%1020.7 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi1.7 hrsSE 710.00 miFair71°F55°F58%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3N4N8N8NE8NE8NE73CalmE5SE9E8SE8S5S6
1 day agoW4SW6SW4W3W6CalmCalmSW6SW4SW4W6NW9
G15
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3S3E3S4CalmS6SE9SE9S9SW9SW5SW7S6SW8SW74N4SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
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Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:17 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:20 PM EDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.81.8344.74.84.43.62.51.30.500.20.92.13.44.44.94.84.33.32.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
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Thu -- 12:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:15 AM EDT     1.41 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:07 AM EDT     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:52 PM EDT     1.48 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:34 PM EDT     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.30.41.11.41.30.90.4-0.3-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.3-0.8-0.10.71.31.51.30.80.1-0.5-1-1.3-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.