Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shady Side, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:36PM Friday June 22, 2018 7:08 AM EDT (11:08 UTC) Moonrise 2:24PMMoonset 1:23AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 431 Am Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of the overnight..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 431 Am Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will slowly northward through Saturday. Meanwhile, low pressure over the ohio valley will move into the eastern great lakes. This low will then move eastward across new england Sunday bringing a cold front across the waters. High pressure will return Monday and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shady Side, MD
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location: 38.86, -76.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 220954 cca
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
554 am edt Fri jun 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will slowly return north through Saturday. Low
pressure will move from the ohio valley to the eastern great lakes
during this time, then eastward across new england Sunday bringing
a cold front across the region. High pressure will then build in
from the eastern great lakes and remain in control through the
middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
A subtle surface boundary warm front can be found near the
virginia north carolina border early this morning. Ample inflow
from the atlantic in a warm moist environment, characterized by
precipitable water greater than 2 inches has resulted in
efficient rainfall producers from the central virginia blue
ridge southeast. The preponderance of mesoscale model guidance
suggests that this area will be drifting northeast through mid
morning. Will drop the flash flood watch in the shenandoah
valley, but extend it to the east of the blue ridge to account
for ongoing activity.

Later today this initial swath should gradually decay as it
encounters more stable air. However, the surface front, which
will be gradually spreading north, will be a focus for more than
ample lift in an environment with deep warm cloud depths. In
addition, south of that boundary, significant instability will
be able to develop. Therefore, additional showers will be
developing, with at least moderate if not locally heavy
rainfall. These showers and thunderstorms should be more
progressive... Moving to the northeast, driven by 850-500 mb
flow.

Anticipate a sharp gradient between stable and unstable air as
surface flow north of the boundary will be from the east.

Therefore, thunder mention will be limited to central virginia
and far southern maryland, with a gradually nighttime decrease.

Pinpointing precisely where that boundary will reside still a
bit problematic. Will not post any additional flood watches at
this time due to the progressive nature of the precipitation.

However, wet antecedent conditions are troubling, and may
suggest that a watch will eventually become necessary.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
By Saturday morning, the front will be draped near the potomac
river, with mid-level low pressure gradually filling over the
great lakes. As the front lifts north, warm and unstable air
will be able to overspread the entire forecast area. Meanwhile,
a belt of shear will overspread from the mid-level low and
associated vorticity. Believe that combination will result in at
least scattered thunderstorm development... Some of which could
be strong, primarily due to winds. A trough axis will cross by
evening, which should provide some stabilization.

The stalled surface boundary and a warm, humid air mass will
remain in place Sunday. One differing factor will be westerly
flow aloft. However there will be sufficient support for more
scattered showers and thunderstorms of at least a diurnal
nature. A second point will be that the stalled boundary likely
be become a cold front by afternoon and evening. Any transient
shortwaves could enhance the thunderstorm activity, as would the
cold frontal passage.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Canadian high pressure will build overhead for Monday and
Tuesday, causing drier and cooler conditions. The high will move
offshore during the middle portion of the week, causing hot and
humid conditions to return.

Aviation 08z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr flight conditions prevail at all terminals except cho,
where ifr exists. As showers thunderstorms lift north,
anticipate deteriorating conditions at the remainder of the
terminals, likely during the morning push. Am still taking a
conservative approach, as there are indications that the
shower thunderstorm activity will decay as it crosses the
potomac. Am forecasting conditions dropping to MVFR, mainly
after the morning push. In a worst-case scenario, ifr certainly
possible.

Once conditions drop, will be maintaining restrictions through
tonight. There likely will be a break with brief improvement,
but lack confidence in timing such a limited lull.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected this
weekend. May have periods ofVFR in between, but flight
restrictions will be pervasive.

A cold front will cross the terminals Sunday night.VFR will
follow for early next week.

Marine
A boundary south of the waters will slowly lift north through
Saturday. East flow in advance of the front supports the small
craft advisory today into this evening.

Winds should subside a bit as the gradient weakens late tonight
into Saturday. However, scattered thunderstorms Saturday into
Saturday night will likely produce local gusty winds.

A cold front will approach the waters Sunday before passing
through Sunday night into Monday. A small craft advisory may be
needed for portions of the waters both ahead of and behind the
cold front through Monday night. High pressure will build
overhead Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels running between a half foot and one foot above
astronomical normals early this morning. With east winds today
that should be maintained a a minimum, if not rise slightly.

Minor inundation may result at the most sensitive locations,
especially for the pm tide cycle, which is the higher
astronomically. Action stage will be more widespread.

A similar situation will likely continue into Saturday.

Although winds will be light south, the excess water will be
unable to drain, and spotty minor inundation will once again be
a possibility.

Winds will become west Sunday and northwest Monday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... Flash flood watch until 8 am edt this morning for vaz036>040-
050-051-507-508.

Flash flood watch until 9 am edt this morning for vaz055-056-
502.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz530>543.

Hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 3 mi69 min E 12 G 13 73°F 76°F1011.9 hPa (+1.1)63°F
44063 - Annapolis 8 mi39 min ESE 9.7 G 12 73°F 1011.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 9 mi57 min 74°F 1010.9 hPa
CPVM2 10 mi57 min 73°F 64°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 14 mi159 min ESE 1 68°F 1010 hPa63°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi39 min E 18 G 19 74°F 1010.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 25 mi51 min E 8 G 9.9 73°F 1011.3 hPa
FSNM2 25 mi51 min E 8.9 G 11 73°F 1011.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 27 mi51 min E 5.1 G 7 70°F 77°F1012 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 29 mi57 min ESE 6 G 9.9 73°F 78°F1011 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi51 min 71°F 82°F1012.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi51 min E 1.9 G 6 78°F1010.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 32 mi57 min SE 11 G 16 72°F 1011.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi51 min E 19 G 21 74°F 79°F1010.3 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi51 min E 4.1 G 9.9 80°F1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi15 minE 1010.00 miOvercast76°F64°F67%1011.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi34 minESE 610.00 miOvercast72°F62°F73%1011.5 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD21 mi14 minE 510.00 miOvercast70°F64°F83%1013.2 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD22 mi73 minENE 510.00 miOvercast71°F65°F83%1010.9 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi33 minE 610.00 miOvercast68°F62°F83%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3NW5--N11N6NE6NE3N7NE5N53CalmCalmE5E7SE11SE11SE11SE10E6E6E8E10
1 day agoN3NE4NW3SE3SE5SE5SE5N5N5N3N3CalmCalmW3CalmNW4W3NW3NW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalm
2 days ago33N5NW7NW8NE7NE5NE9
G15
NE3N3N6NW3W3CalmCalmCalmN4N3N5N44CalmN3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Shady Side, West River, Maryland
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Shady Side
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:03 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:58 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:41 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.41.41.21.10.90.70.50.50.50.70.911.11.10.90.70.60.40.30.30.40.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:16 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:47 AM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:39 PM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:34 PM EDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.8110.70.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.4-00.30.50.50.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.