Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 2:11 AM   Moonset 12:40 PM

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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 435 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon - .
Rest of this afternoon - S winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming E after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers after midnight. Mon - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 435 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure briefly returns today before a slow moving front crosses the local waters over the weekend. Unsettled conditions look to linger over the waters heading into early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed on both Friday night and Saturday.

FXUS61 KLWX 021852 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 252 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level ridge will build over the area today through Friday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will cross the area late tonight into Friday before sinking south this weekend. A secondary cold front and area of low pressure will pass through the area Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Mostly clear skies continue this afternoon with a few high clouds passing by and patches of fair weather cumulus bubbling up. Temperatures are on track to reach highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the area this afternoon, and possibly tie or break a few climate records.

A backdoor cold front slowly descends into the region this evening, turning winds out of the N/NE and possibly bringing a surge of winds down the Bay overnight. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and a little warmer in the metros.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Brief ridging in place on Friday begins to erode as shortwave energy digs in from the west. The backdoor cold front slowly advances south and banks up against the Blue Ridge on Friday, and a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes, bringing an associated, stronger cold front to the region Saturday into Sunday.

The backdoor cold front will act as a focus area for PoPs Friday morning and afternoon (though currently only slight to chance)
before expanding eastward as the second front approaches from the west. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms begins Friday evening and remain restricted to near and west of the Blue Ridge until Saturday afternoon/evening with the steadiest rain arriving Saturday night. WPC QPF has the area getting around an inch of rain total between Friday and Saturday with some locally higher totals along the Alleghenies. Will continue to monitor the flood threat.

High temperatures could get into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Friday before we cloud up. Saturday will be far cooler in comparison, with onshore flow and dense cloud cover keeping us in the 60s to low 70s at best.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A lingering low pressure will continue to move through the area late in the weekend with an associated cold front. Widespread showers will build in early Sunday with isolated thunderstorm chances.
Precipitation will be most steady early in the day with continued chances throughout the remainder of the weekend and into early Monday. Frontal boundaries will linger through at least midweek with renewed shower and thunderstorms chances, especially each afternoon.
The unsettled pattern looks to stick around even into the later part of next week.

Temperatures will start out in the low to mid 70s on Sunday before gradually warming a few degrees each day, with mid to late week highs getting into the mid to upper 80s to even some low 90s for the lower elevations. Overnight lows will mostly be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected today and most of Friday with high pressure and fair weather cumulus. Winds have been generally W/NW around less than 10 kts, though observed a bit stronger with some gusts at BWI. Winds go light overnight tonight for most of the area, but a surge of stronger winds could move down the Chesapeake Bay with the passage of a backdoor cold front tonight, so terminals closer to the waters could see winds pick up back to around 10 kts.

Clouds increase through the day Friday with onshore flow and an approaching cold front from the west. Sub-VFR cigs could reach the terminals by Friday night, and continue through Saturday with showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through.

Sub-VFR ceilings are possible Sunday as showers and thunderstorms impact the terminals throughout the day. Gusty southerly winds early on Sunday will slowly subside by the midday and remain lighter into Monday.

MARINE
While background westerly winds are fairly light over the area today, southerly flow over the waters could result in channeling this afternoon into this evening. Winds could occasionally gust to around 18 knots at times, but confidence for a longer duration warranting SCAs is low at this time. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued for the waters for now but will continue to monitor this evening. Additionally, a surge of stronger winds could move over the waters with a backdoor cold front overnight tonight, but confidence is also low regarding duration of SCA criteria gusts.

Onshore flow strengthens by Friday afternoon and SCAs are in effect. Additional advisories will likely be needed continuing through Saturday as low pressure and an associated cold front approaches over the weekend.

SCAs will be possible early Sunday morning before winds diminish through Monday. Showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters, cannot rule out an isolated SMW, especially early Sunday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow will lead to rising water levels late Friday through Sunday. Minor coastal flooding expected during the weekend, especially by Saturday night. Sensitive shoreline like Annapolis and Straits Point could approach moderate flood levels.

CLIMATE
Well above normal temperatures are forecast today. Below is a list of daily high temperature records.

==================================================================== Record Daily High Temperatures for Thursday 05/02 ==================================================================== Site Thursday 05/02 value (Year record was set)
-------------------------------------------------------------------- Record Highs Thursday 05/02

Sites Records/Year Forecast High Washington DC (DCA) 91/2018 90 Dulles(IAD) 88/2018 89 Baltimore, MD (BWI) 90/2018 93 Martinsburg, WV (MRB) 95/1942 86 Charlottesville, VA (CHO) 91/2018 89 Hagerstown, MD (HGR) 90/2018 86 Annapolis, MD (NAK) 90/1992 84

=================================================================== =

Site Legend ------------------------ DCA area - Washington DC BWI area - Baltimore MD Table Legend IAD area - Sterling/Dulles VA ------------------------ MRB area - Martinsburg WV Temperature (Year)
CHO area - Charlottesville VA HGR area - Hagerstown MD NAK area - Annapolis MD

Although the facilities (airports, etc.) where temperatures are currently observed were built in the mid to late 20th century, additional temperature records taken at nearby sites before that extend the valid periods of record back into the late 1800s (except for IAD, where records go back to 1960).

Record Event Reports (RERs) are only issued for the sites denoted with a (*).

All climate data is considered preliminary until reviewed by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543.

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Thomas Point Shoal Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:17 AM EDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:38 PM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:58 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Thomas Point Shoal Light, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:58 AM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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