Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arlington, VA
May 19, 2024 2:37 PM EDT (18:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:50 AM Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 3:42 PM Moonset 2:45 AM |
ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 134 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
This afternoon - NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers.
Tonight - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 134 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will gradually progress offshore today before high pressure builds over the waters on Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system settles south of the area by the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
low pressure will gradually progress offshore today before high pressure builds over the waters on Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system settles south of the area by the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 191817 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 217 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Slightly drier conditions are expected today along with a few breaks of sunshine as low pressure pushes off the coastal Carolinas and high pressure builds in from the east. Warming temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. A strong cold front approaches from the Midwest and Ohio River Valley Wednesday before crossing the area Thursday. The front stalls to the south Friday before lifting back into the region this weekend to bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Visible satellite shows some clearing of the low clouds, primarily along the mountains and portions of the Shenandoah Valley and Chesapeake Bay. Overall the cloud layer is thin however, with some visible thinning and breaks elsewhere, especially as we head into the afternoon.
Gradual improvement in conditions is expected through the day, reaching high end MVFR/low end VFR in the next few hours. Guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered showers at most this afternoon, focused along the mountains and east of the Blue Ridge. Any showers should be brief and the vast majority of the area should stay dry.
Temperatures today remain dependent on cloud clearing, but still anticipate 70s for most of the area. Notably a N/S swatch of the DC metro from western Montgomery county to southern Fauquier county is a degree or two warmer than the surrounding area, thanks to a boundary cutting through the cloud cover for a few hours earlier this morning.
Low clouds and patchy fog may return tonight with damp soils from recent rainfall and high pressure building in, with the greatest reduction in visibility expected in the few hours before and immediately after sunrise.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Monday begins our reprieve from unsettled conditions with dry weather and sunny skies in the forecast as high pressure builds in. High temperatures rise to the mid-upper 70s, starting a warming trend through mid-week as well. Low clouds and fog from Sunday night should burn off by late morning, hanging the longest along the Chesapeake and Potomac. Clear skies and lingering moisture likely yield patchy fog once again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will be in the mid- upper 50s.
Dry and sunny conditions continue through Tuesday, high pressure remaining overhead but gradually sliding eastward. High temperatures warm into the upper 70s to 80s. While not currently forecasting fog Tuesday night, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s, if we cool enough overnight some patchy fog could develop, but it's not looking as certain as Sunday and Monday night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overall not much change in our current weather pattern over the last few weeks. We still remain in the cycle of 1-2 days of sensible weather followed by 2-3 days of unsettled conditions. Unfortunately, as we head into the middle and latter half of the workweek the unsettled weather looks to return.
Strong low pressure over the upper Great Lakes region and it's associated cold front draped across the Upper Midwest/Ohio River Valley will gradually push east Wednesday as the upper level ridging breaks down. 06z/12z guidance continues to slow the progress of the front east Wednesday with most of the guidance favoring Thursday into Thursday night. This is due in part to the placement of the departing surface high off the NJ/Long Island coast and secondary surface high pressure over the southern Appalachians region. Even with that said, a few showers and thunderstorms (some of which could be strong) remain possible in areas west of the Blue Ridge Wednesday afternoon and evening as an initial piece of shortwave energy pivoting around the upper level low passes through. Most locations will remain dry with increased south to southwesterly winds boosting temperatures into the mid to upper 80s to near 90 outside the mountains/bay.
The cold front looks to push through the area Thursday into Thursday night before stalling to the south Friday. Latest 12z guidance suggest a frontal passage right during the peak heating period Thursday mid to late afternoon. This will allow both CAPE and shear to maximized lending to a potential severe weather threat. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center makes a mention of this threat on there Day 5 outlook. CSU Learning Machine Probabilities also highlight areas along and east of the Blue Ridge (i.e I-95 corridor in the 15-30 percent probabilities of severe thunderstorms) during this timeframe. Multi-ensemble CAPE values range from 500-1000 J/kg on Wednesday before rising into the 1000-1500 J/kg range by Thursday afternoon. With the approach of the front, it remains to be seen if the increasing vertical shear (35-45kt) can coincide with the higher CAPE values. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Some storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail given the antecedent conditions. As for coverage, some uncertainty remains given any cloud cover early on and the resultant timing of the front as it passes through. High temperatures Thursday will once again be in the mid to upper 80s with 70s over the mountains.
The front stalls south and east of the area Friday before retreating back north into the start of the weekend. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are likely as a result although uncertainty remains in the overall pattern. High pressure tries to briefly build back into the area Sunday before another series of fronts impact the area by the early part of next week.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Gradual improvement in conditions is expected through the day, reaching high end MVFR/low end VFR in the next few hours. Guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered showers at most this afternoon, focused along the mountains and east of the Blue Ridge. Any showers should be brief and the vast majority of the area should stay dry, but if they impact the terminals, could see brief reductions back to MVFR.
Low clouds and patchy fog may return tonight with damp soils from recent rainfall and high pressure building in, with the greatest reduction in visibility expected in the few hours before and immediately after sunrise. Conditions should improve by late Monday morning. Afterwards, dry and sunny conditions are expected through Tuesday with winds remaining fairly light out of the S/SE.
A strong cold front will approach the region Wednesday before slowly passing through Thursday into Friday. Some restrictions are possible especially Thursday into Thursday night as the front crosses. This is due in part to an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity especially along and east of the Blue Ridge. The front stalls to the south late Thursday into early Friday before retreating back to the north to start the weekend. Additional restrictions are possible during this time. South to southwest winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday before shifting to the west and northwest Thursday night into Friday.
MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.
Winds remain fair, easterly the remainder of today, SE Monday and S/SE on Tuesday. As winds turn more southerly, some channeling is possible but is not currently expected given the light flow.
Some SCA level southerly channeling is possible Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front from the Ohio River Valley. The cold front looks to slowly cross the waters Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening bringing the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Special Marine Warnings may be required for the stronger storms. Winds shift to west-northwest behind the front Friday as it stalls south of the waters.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With low pressure pushing off the coastal Carolinas and high pressure building in from the east, water levels should start to decrease under north-northeast flow. More sensitive locations such as Annapolis, Straits Pint, and DC Waterfront could see minor tidal flooding over the next 2 high tide cycles. Anomalies do creep up again late tonight into Monday. This is in response to a light wind which may allow some of the elevated water levels to snap back. Winds turn more easterly again on Monday yielding further rises. Additional tidal flooding is possible as this occurs.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 217 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Slightly drier conditions are expected today along with a few breaks of sunshine as low pressure pushes off the coastal Carolinas and high pressure builds in from the east. Warming temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. A strong cold front approaches from the Midwest and Ohio River Valley Wednesday before crossing the area Thursday. The front stalls to the south Friday before lifting back into the region this weekend to bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Visible satellite shows some clearing of the low clouds, primarily along the mountains and portions of the Shenandoah Valley and Chesapeake Bay. Overall the cloud layer is thin however, with some visible thinning and breaks elsewhere, especially as we head into the afternoon.
Gradual improvement in conditions is expected through the day, reaching high end MVFR/low end VFR in the next few hours. Guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered showers at most this afternoon, focused along the mountains and east of the Blue Ridge. Any showers should be brief and the vast majority of the area should stay dry.
Temperatures today remain dependent on cloud clearing, but still anticipate 70s for most of the area. Notably a N/S swatch of the DC metro from western Montgomery county to southern Fauquier county is a degree or two warmer than the surrounding area, thanks to a boundary cutting through the cloud cover for a few hours earlier this morning.
Low clouds and patchy fog may return tonight with damp soils from recent rainfall and high pressure building in, with the greatest reduction in visibility expected in the few hours before and immediately after sunrise.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Monday begins our reprieve from unsettled conditions with dry weather and sunny skies in the forecast as high pressure builds in. High temperatures rise to the mid-upper 70s, starting a warming trend through mid-week as well. Low clouds and fog from Sunday night should burn off by late morning, hanging the longest along the Chesapeake and Potomac. Clear skies and lingering moisture likely yield patchy fog once again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will be in the mid- upper 50s.
Dry and sunny conditions continue through Tuesday, high pressure remaining overhead but gradually sliding eastward. High temperatures warm into the upper 70s to 80s. While not currently forecasting fog Tuesday night, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s, if we cool enough overnight some patchy fog could develop, but it's not looking as certain as Sunday and Monday night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overall not much change in our current weather pattern over the last few weeks. We still remain in the cycle of 1-2 days of sensible weather followed by 2-3 days of unsettled conditions. Unfortunately, as we head into the middle and latter half of the workweek the unsettled weather looks to return.
Strong low pressure over the upper Great Lakes region and it's associated cold front draped across the Upper Midwest/Ohio River Valley will gradually push east Wednesday as the upper level ridging breaks down. 06z/12z guidance continues to slow the progress of the front east Wednesday with most of the guidance favoring Thursday into Thursday night. This is due in part to the placement of the departing surface high off the NJ/Long Island coast and secondary surface high pressure over the southern Appalachians region. Even with that said, a few showers and thunderstorms (some of which could be strong) remain possible in areas west of the Blue Ridge Wednesday afternoon and evening as an initial piece of shortwave energy pivoting around the upper level low passes through. Most locations will remain dry with increased south to southwesterly winds boosting temperatures into the mid to upper 80s to near 90 outside the mountains/bay.
The cold front looks to push through the area Thursday into Thursday night before stalling to the south Friday. Latest 12z guidance suggest a frontal passage right during the peak heating period Thursday mid to late afternoon. This will allow both CAPE and shear to maximized lending to a potential severe weather threat. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center makes a mention of this threat on there Day 5 outlook. CSU Learning Machine Probabilities also highlight areas along and east of the Blue Ridge (i.e I-95 corridor in the 15-30 percent probabilities of severe thunderstorms) during this timeframe. Multi-ensemble CAPE values range from 500-1000 J/kg on Wednesday before rising into the 1000-1500 J/kg range by Thursday afternoon. With the approach of the front, it remains to be seen if the increasing vertical shear (35-45kt) can coincide with the higher CAPE values. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Some storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail given the antecedent conditions. As for coverage, some uncertainty remains given any cloud cover early on and the resultant timing of the front as it passes through. High temperatures Thursday will once again be in the mid to upper 80s with 70s over the mountains.
The front stalls south and east of the area Friday before retreating back north into the start of the weekend. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are likely as a result although uncertainty remains in the overall pattern. High pressure tries to briefly build back into the area Sunday before another series of fronts impact the area by the early part of next week.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Gradual improvement in conditions is expected through the day, reaching high end MVFR/low end VFR in the next few hours. Guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered showers at most this afternoon, focused along the mountains and east of the Blue Ridge. Any showers should be brief and the vast majority of the area should stay dry, but if they impact the terminals, could see brief reductions back to MVFR.
Low clouds and patchy fog may return tonight with damp soils from recent rainfall and high pressure building in, with the greatest reduction in visibility expected in the few hours before and immediately after sunrise. Conditions should improve by late Monday morning. Afterwards, dry and sunny conditions are expected through Tuesday with winds remaining fairly light out of the S/SE.
A strong cold front will approach the region Wednesday before slowly passing through Thursday into Friday. Some restrictions are possible especially Thursday into Thursday night as the front crosses. This is due in part to an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity especially along and east of the Blue Ridge. The front stalls to the south late Thursday into early Friday before retreating back to the north to start the weekend. Additional restrictions are possible during this time. South to southwest winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday before shifting to the west and northwest Thursday night into Friday.
MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.
Winds remain fair, easterly the remainder of today, SE Monday and S/SE on Tuesday. As winds turn more southerly, some channeling is possible but is not currently expected given the light flow.
Some SCA level southerly channeling is possible Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front from the Ohio River Valley. The cold front looks to slowly cross the waters Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening bringing the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Special Marine Warnings may be required for the stronger storms. Winds shift to west-northwest behind the front Friday as it stalls south of the waters.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With low pressure pushing off the coastal Carolinas and high pressure building in from the east, water levels should start to decrease under north-northeast flow. More sensitive locations such as Annapolis, Straits Pint, and DC Waterfront could see minor tidal flooding over the next 2 high tide cycles. Anomalies do creep up again late tonight into Monday. This is in response to a light wind which may allow some of the elevated water levels to snap back. Winds turn more easterly again on Monday yielding further rises. Additional tidal flooding is possible as this occurs.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 2 mi | 80 min | ENE 1G | 67°F | 30.00 | |||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 20 mi | 68 min | 0 | 70°F | 30.01 | 63°F | ||
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 32 mi | 80 min | WNW 2.9G | 71°F | 29.99 | |||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 33 mi | 68 min | 0G | 70°F | 66°F | 1 ft | ||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 33 mi | 98 min | N 4.1G | 65°F | 30.04 | |||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 37 mi | 80 min | SSE 2.9G | 67°F | ||||
| CBCM2 | 37 mi | 80 min | S 1.9G | 69°F | 29.99 | |||
| CPVM2 | 37 mi | 110 min | 66°F | 63°F | ||||
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 37 mi | 80 min | S 2.9G | |||||
| NCDV2 | 38 mi | 80 min | SW 1.9G | 68°F | 29.98 | |||
| 44043 - Patapsco, MD | 40 mi | 68 min | NW 5.8G | 68°F | 66°F | 0 ft | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 40 mi | 68 min | NW 7.8G | 63°F | 65°F | |||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 48 mi | 80 min | NNW 11G | 30.00 | ||||
| TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD | 49 mi | 80 min | N 6G | 30.00 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDCA RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL,VA | 2 sm | 45 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 59°F | 65% | 30.00 | |
| KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD | 11 sm | 12 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 30.01 | |
| KFME TIPTON,MD | 22 sm | 8 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 63°F | 83% | 30.02 | |
| KGAI MONTGOMERY COUNTY AIRPARK,MD | 22 sm | 41 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 30.02 | |
| KIAD WASHINGTON DULLES INTL,VA | 22 sm | 14 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 59°F | 65% | 30.01 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Washington, Potomac River, D.C., Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bladensburg, Anacostia River, Maryland, Tide feet
Sterling, VA,
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