Wednesday, May24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Denton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:19PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 11:14 PM EDT (03:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:06AMMoonset 5:58PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1031 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Rest of tonight..E winds 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain. A slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will pass through the waters late tonight into Thursday. The cold front associated with this low will move through the area Thursday night. High pressure will build overhead Friday through Friday night before moving off the mid-atlantic coast Saturday. A warm front will stall out near the waters later Saturday and Sunday before a stronger cold front possibly moves through on Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Friday through Friday evening.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Denton, MD
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location: 38.88, -75.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 250132
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
932 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

As an area of low pressure moves into the ohio valley tonight
into Thursday, an occluded front and warm front will lift toward
our region. A triple point low will develop and take over as
the dominant low as it moves across our area Thursday night.

This low will move away from the area Friday, with a weak
frontal boundary or surface trough crossing the area during the
day. Weak high pressure may briefly move across the area Friday
night into early Saturday. A weak low may move along a
developing warm front to our south Saturday into Saturday night.

An occluded frontal system is expected to affect the area
Sunday into Monday, followed by another frontal boundary on

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Warm front extends across the carolinas and is lifting north.

As that warm front lifts north widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms currently over va nc will continue to track
northeast with rain spreading into northeast md de between 10pm-
midnight. Pops are categorical for a several hours with
widespread showers after midnight tonight and through Thursday
morning. Given strong lift and increasing low-level moisture,
there may be enough elevated instability associated with a
pronounced warm nose south of the 850 mb front to see a few
embedded thunderstorms in our DELMARVA zones toward the early
morning. Not anticipating much of a flooding risk tonight given
qpf below one inch thru daybreak.

Forecast low temperatures range from near 50f in the southern
poconos to the upper 50s in eastern md and southern de.

An onshore wind may become breezy late tonight as the pressure
gradient tightens up briefly on the north side of the
approaching warm front. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph are possible.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Low pressure is expected to slowly lift northward through the
midwest ohio valley on Thursday. Meanwhile, its attendant warm
front will also move northward through the DELMARVA region
before stalling in eastern pa-nj (likely near the philadelphia
metro). Models are indicating the development of a secondary low
during the afternoon on the lee side of the blue ridge
mountains. This low would then approach the forecast area late
in the afternoon.

Pops are highest initially in the morning hours when the
southeasterly low-level jet interacts with the approaching warm
front. This band of steady precip will eventually lift north of
the region late in the morning. Coverage of showers will
generally be more widely scattered during the afternoon.

Breaks in the cloud cover will promote strong heating south of
the warm front across DELMARVA and perhaps southeastern
pa southern nj. The environment will be conducive for
thunderstorms south of the warm front later in the afternoon as
the boundary-layer destabilizes and strong lift arrives ahead of
the negatively-tilted trough. A few storms in these southern
zones could potentially become severe with damaging winds being
the primary threats. These storms will also pose a risk for
localized heavy rainfall that could lead to urban poor drainage

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
An unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the extended
forecast with several periods of rain possible.

By Thursday night, the triple point low will begin moving
across the area, pulling an occluded frontal system across the
area as well. Showers will likely be ongoing during the evening
and continue into the overnight hours. By Friday morning, the
low will continue to move to our northeast and offshore of new
england, and showers associated with the low will move to our
northeast as well. However, a weak frontal boundary or surface
trough is forecast to move across the area during the day. With
help from the trough aloft and any short wave vorticity impulses,
there will be another chance of scattered showers during the

Friday night through most of Saturday is expected to be dry as
weak high pressure quickly moves across the area. However, a
warm front is expected to develop to the south of the area,
while a weak area of low pressure moves along this boundary
during the day. Also, a short wave vorticity impulse may move
across the area during the day, so there will be a chance of an
isolated shower during the day Saturday.

On Saturday night, the warm front to the south will begin
lifting northward, but not likely make its way into the area
until Sunday. A triple point may form near the area by Sunday
night as well, which could slow the progression of the frontal
system as it begins to occlude. The exact timing of these
features is still a little uncertain, but Sunday into Sunday
night look to have the best chance of showers, and possible
thunderstorms if enough instability builds on Sunday.

The actual cold front is forecast to move across the area
Monday, with another cold front possible on Tuesday. This could
lead to additional showers or thunderstorms, especially during
the day Monday and Tuesday.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Cigs have lowered to MVFR at kacy and kmiv, and CIGS will lower
to MVFR throughout the rest of the terminals through 04z. Rain
is expected to arrive from S to N between 06z and 09z. Expect
ifr conditions shortly after the rain arrives with CIGS dropping
below 1 kft.

The steadier rain ends from S to N between approximately 11z and 14z
Thursday morning. However, CIGS may lower to lifr during the morning
hours with the probability of an extended period of lifr higher for
northern terminals (ttn-abe-rdg). Farther south, CIGS will
try to slowly improve as a warm front lift northward.

E-se winds this afternoon around 10 kt with occasional gusts 15-20
kt thru sunset. Winds look to become more easterly tonight with
speeds increasing to 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25 kt late tonight and
early Thursday morning. A wind shift out of the s-se is possible
during the afternoon from about phl southward assuming a warm front
makes it this far north.


Thursday night... MVFR to ifr conditions possible with low clouds and
fog drizzle possible.

Friday-Friday night... Improving toVFR during the day and into the
night, scattered showers possible during the daytime. Gusty
northwest winds 20-25 knots.

Saturday... GenerallyVFR. Showers moving into the area later in the
day, which will lead to lowering ceilings.

Saturday night-vfr conditions early, possibly lowering overnight.

Sunday-Sunday night... MVFR to ifr conditions possible with periods
of low clouds and rain. Thunderstorms possible Sunday.

Monday... Generally improving toVFR during the morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible during the day.

Sca in effect for the coastal waters for tonight and Thursday.

Although e-ne winds are generally 10-20 kt this afternoon, seas
have been building to around 5 ft at our offshore buoys. Winds
may reach SCA criteria of 25 kt early Thursday morning when the
pressure gradient increases ahead of a warm front. Seas will
remain in the 5-6 ft range through the day on Thursday.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
ocean beaches on Thursday.


Thursday night... Small craft advisory in effect.

Friday... Winds may drop below advisory levels, but seas may remain
above 5 feet into Friday.

Friday night-Monday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels, although winds may gust around 20 knots at times.

Tides coastal flooding
Some of the highest astronomical tides of the year are occuring
through the end of the week. As a result of that and onshore
flow, minor coastal flooding is expected with the high tide this
evening and Thursday evening. One source of guidance shows
water levels along the northern nj shore approaching moderate
flooding thresholds with the Thursday evening high tide, but
this seems uncertain at this time. Minor coastal flooding may
again be possible with the Friday evening high tide.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory until midnight edt tonight for

Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm Thursday to 2 am edt Friday
for njz012>014-020>027.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for njz016.

De... Coastal flood advisory until midnight edt tonight for

Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm Thursday to 2 am edt Friday
for dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Klein mps
short term... Klein
long term... Robertson
aviation... Klein robertson mps
marine... Klein robertson mps
tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi45 min 59°F 67°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 25 mi60 min ESE 2.9 58°F 1008 hPa56°F
CPVM2 31 mi45 min 60°F 56°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 32 mi75 min E 16 G 18 59°F 64°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi45 min E 11 G 19 59°F 65°F1006.9 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 33 mi25 min ESE 14 G 16 59°F 1006.6 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 35 mi25 min E 16 G 19 60°F 1007.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi45 min 60°F 1006.3 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 38 mi45 min E 14 G 19 57°F 63°F1007.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 38 mi45 min E 8.9 G 13 58°F 65°F1008 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi25 min ESE 16 G 19 60°F 1006.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi45 min E 16 G 20 60°F 1006.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 44 mi45 min SE 14 G 18 58°F 1007 hPa
FSNM2 44 mi45 min E 17 G 22 59°F 1006.8 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi45 min ENE 5.1 G 8.9 61°F 67°F1008.5 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 47 mi45 min E 7 G 13 56°F 61°F1008 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi105 min E 6 59°F 1006 hPa54°F
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 47 mi35 min ESE 16 G 23 62°F 1007.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi45 min E 16 G 20 58°F 64°F1006.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 48 mi45 min ESE 12 G 18 60°F 69°F1006.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi45 min 60°F 66°F1008.2 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi33 minSE 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast59°F53°F82%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
1 day agoNE5N6NE4CalmCalmCalmNE4NE4E8E10
2 days agoE5CalmE4N3NE4NE4NE4E4E4E3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmN3CalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for Denton, Choptank River, Maryland
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Wed -- 05:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:11 AM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:39 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:27 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Greensboro, Choptank River, Maryland
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Wed -- 12:41 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:25 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:32 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.