Sunday, March18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Denton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:16PM Sunday March 18, 2018 12:17 AM EDT (04:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:01AMMoonset 7:31PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1032 Pm Edt Sat Mar 17 2018
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain or snow.
Tue..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of snow.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of snow or rain.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Sat Mar 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move across the carolinas tonight, with high pressure building over the mid-atlantic on Sunday. Low pressure will pass through the tennessee valley on Monday, with another coastal low developing off the mid-atlantic coast Monday night into Tuesday. A secondary low may move offshore on Wednesday, then high pressure finally begins to build in again toward the end of the week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for the waters Monday night through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Denton, MD
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location: 38.88, -75.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 180110
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
910 pm edt Sat mar 17 2018

Low pressure over the tennessee valley moves off the mid-
atlantic coast tonight. High pressure currently over the
northern plains states will gradually build to the south and
east on Sunday, and will move off the mid-atlantic coast
sometime Monday or Monday evening. Canadian high pressure then
re-establishes itself north of the great lakes. Meanwhile, low
pressure currently over the southern plains will build east and
emerge over the mid-atlantic Monday night. It then intensifies
as it moves out to sea on Tuesday. Another low may form over the
mid-atlantic Wednesday or Wednesday night. High pressure
returns from the north to close out the work week. Low pressure
then approaches next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
A weak ridge of high pressure will settle across the area
tonight. A weak low will move well south of the area overnight.

Clouds and light showers associated with that low have already
exited offshore. A weak cold front will settle north east of the
area tonight. Overall, mostly clear skies and light winds will
be over the region tonight. We haven't changed the lows from
earlier as they look to be on track. A few dew points in SE nj
were modified.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
Sunday is expected to be another quiet day. The backdoor cold
front that pushes into the area overnight remains stalled out
across the area, before an area of low pressure approaches later
in the day, which will begin to push the front fully across the
area. Sunday is expected to be dry, with very little in the way
of cloud cover expected. Daytime highs are expected to remain a
couple of degrees below normal.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Overview: complex storm system still on track to impact the
region Tuesday through Wednesday, but details are still
uncertain. 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF keep the storm and most of the
precip to the south, as well as the 12z cmc-gdps. The 12z nam,
however, is somewhat of an outlier, bringing the heavier and
more widespread precip farther north.

High pressure builds over the over the region Sunday night
builds to the south and east and moves off the mid-atlantic
coast on Monday. Conditions will be dry through Monday.

Meanwhile, low pressure over the midwest on Monday will track to
the east through the tennessee valley Monday night and will
emerge between the north carolina coast and the delmarva
peninsula by Tuesday morning. At the same time, high pressure
centered over central canada will press to the south and east
and will be centered just north of the great lakes Tuesday
morning, and this high slowly builds east during the day.

In terms of sensible weather and QPF there are still too many
variables to determine what will happen with this storm. There
are several things going against a significant snowfall:
1) a lack of arctic air in place ahead of the storm.

2) higher late march Sun angle (Tuesday is the first day of
astronomical spring).

3) the position of the high to the north is too far west to
lock in cold enough air at the surface.

That does not mean that we are out of the woods, however. The
12z nam, though an outlier, is a bit farther north with the
position of the low and has the high a bit farther to the south
and east. This brings more in the way of cold air into play, and
brings the heavier precip up into central and nj and southeast
pa as opposed to southern nj and delmarva. This track would
bring more snow to the region during that time.

Opted to use a blend of superblend and wpc guidance given the
uncertainties that lie with this storm, and did not make many
appreciable changes to the previous forecast.

This results in snow north of i-78, and otherwise snow, rain, or
a wintry mix elsewhere. Generally rain during the day and snow
at night.

Please continue to use our snowfall probability maps to get an
idea for the worst case scenario regarding this storm, as
although main forecast keeps snow amounts low, there is the
chance for significant accumulations. It is a low chance, but
still a chance.

Primary storm moves out to sea Tuesday night, and then another
storm forms off the mid-atlantic coast on Wednesday. This one
seems too far south to impact the region, but wrap-around
precip may spread west.

High pressure closes out the work week and another low
approaches for the weekend. Temperatures will be well below
normal through the period.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR conditions continue through tonight. West to
northwest winds around 10 knots this evening will decrease

Sunday...VFR conditions continue through the day Sunday.

Northwest winds 5-10 knots, gusts may reach 15-20 knots in the


Sunday night through Monday...VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday... Onset of precip will be Monday
evening over the DELMARVA as rain. By late Monday night and
Tuesday, widespread MVFR ifr conditions. Snow for krdg kabe, and
wintry mix for kttn kpne kphl kilg. Wintry mix and then plain
rain for kacy kmiv. Low confidence on precip type, though. Ne
winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Additional precip possible
with continued MVFR ifr conditions. Low confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR.

West to northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots this evening will
decrease a little overnight. Fair weather expected overnight.

Sunday... Sub-sca with fair weather.


Sunday night and Monday... Sub-sca conditions.

Monday night and Tuesday... SCA conditions with gales likely
Tuesday. Vsby restrictions in rain, but wintry mix possible.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Gales continue Tuesday night. Sca
conditions Wednesday. Additional vsby restrictions in rain snow.

Thursday... SCA conditions continue.

Fire weather
Relative humidity values on Sunday will drop into the 20s
again, but winds are expected to be less than Saturday. Even
though fuels have been drying, they are expected to remain
above critical levels as well. No enhanced statements are
expected at this time.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Robertson po
short term... Robertson
long term... Mps
aviation... Robertson mps po
marine... Robertson mps po
fire weather...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 25 mi108 min W 1 35°F 1010 hPa33°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi48 min 38°F 42°F1011.6 hPa
CPVM2 31 mi48 min 38°F 30°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 32 mi78 min NW 7 G 7 40°F 41°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi48 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 39°F 40°F1010.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi48 min 38°F 1010.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi38 min N 5.8 G 7.8 41°F 1011.3 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 38 mi48 min WNW 7 G 8.9 38°F 41°F1010.1 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 39 mi48 min WNW 15 G 16 39°F 1010.5 hPa
FSNM2 44 mi48 min WNW 9.9 G 11 39°F 1009.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi48 min W 6 G 7 38°F 1010.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 44 mi48 min NNW 4.1 G 8.9 40°F 1011.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi48 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 36°F 40°F1010.2 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 47 mi48 min NW 5.1 G 9.9 39°F 40°F1009.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi48 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 42°F1011 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi108 min WSW 1 33°F 1011 hPa31°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 48 mi48 min NW 1.9 G 5.1 38°F 41°F1010.1 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi48 min 37°F 40°F1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair32°F29°F90%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW3W3W4NW5NW3NW5CalmNW4NW10W9
1 day agoCalmW3NW3W3W3
2 days agoNW13

Tide / Current Tables for Denton, Choptank River, Maryland
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Sun -- 02:49 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:17 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:08 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:48 PM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Greensboro, Choptank River, Maryland
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Sun -- 03:35 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:22 AM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:54 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:53 PM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.