Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 3:04 AM   Moonset 3:06 PM

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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 836 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon - .
Tonight - E winds 5 kt - .increasing to 15 kt late this evening and overnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain or areas of drizzle. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely or areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Mon night - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - NW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.Tue night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 836 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through tonight before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Sunday night for portions of the waters. Additional small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters by the middle part of next week.

FXUS61 KPHI 042355 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 755 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Stationary boundary keeping the region unsettled today lifts northwards as a warm front tonight and Sunday. Cold front approaches Sunday night into Monday looking to cross through later Monday/Monday night. Cold front becomes nearly stationary over the region for Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday, keeping things unsettled. Another cold front looks to come through between the Thursday night and Friday night time frame.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
6:20pm...Little changes made to the forecast with the early evening update. Temperatures have been on the cooler side of things than previously forecast so adjusted those basis current observations. Also, adjusted PoPs over the next several hours basis current radar trends. Otherwise, previous discussion remains below:

Latest analysis depicts a backdoor cold front extending from the Virginia capes northwestward toward western Pennsylvania and north across the eastern Great Lakes. Another cold front moving southeast from Canada is washing out over the eastern Great Lakes. A third cold front is pushing southeast across the western Great Lakes and north/central Plains. Aloft, a ridge straddles our region north to south, but several weak shortwaves are located over the upper Ohio Valley and southeastern US, with more further west over the central Plains.

Weak warm advection above the cool marine layer will allow showers to continue through Sunday, but the main mid and upper level forcing will remain mostly to our west in central PA.
Thus, expect relatively dry conditions near the immediate coast, with the bulk of precip near Chesapeake Bay and across western Chester, Berks and the Poconos through Sunday afternoon. That said, enough shortwave energy finally pushes eastward over the region by then to allow more organized showers to cross much of the remainder of the region, so have POPs maxing out Sunday afternoon, but even then, still keep them below categorical from I-95 south and east. QPF looks relatively light given the long duration as well, with less than an inch area-wide and less than a half inch from I-95 corridor on south and east, with almost nothing near the coast. All that being said, it still won't be very nice, as the persistent easterly flow will keep skies cloudy and temps cool, mostly 40s to near 50 at night and 50s and 60s during the day. The warm front does try to lift northward late on Sunday, so that gives areas from Philly south the opportunity to approach (but not reach) normal, but it'll be a struggle.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Unsettled conditions persist Sunday night as a cold front from the west approaches. Cold front will be rather slow getting here, still approaching our region Monday and crossing through perhaps either later Monday or Monday night. Thereafter, guidance suggests the cold front may stall over or close by the region Monday night into Tuesday.

Given this synoptic situation, an unsettled short term looks to be on the horizon. Though unsettled, the short term will not be all that impactful, just showery in general. Precipitation will not amount to much across the region during the term, maybe 0.25 inches at most. Our region is not currently outlooked by the WPC for any excessive rainfall or the SPC for any severe weather. Likely and categorical PoPs Sunday night will diminish with time, mainly chance PoPs for the periods thereafter.

Great support from model soundings for fog/low stratus development Sunday night; PBL should be nice and saturated, RHs 90-100%.
Some lighter and less impactful fog development is possible for some areas Monday night, but much less support from model soundings for this period is noted.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Once again, an unsettled and showery forecast looks to be tap for the long term. Cold front forecast to come through the region Monday into Tuesday is likely to stall over or close by thereafter, becoming a stationary front. Though this boundary may lift a little northwards some with time (resembling a warm front), the boundary will remain stationed over the region for Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday, perhaps even into the Thursday night time frame. Another cold front looks to approach Thursday/Thursday night, but when the cold front comes through at this point is not uncertain. Cold front could cross through anytime between the Thursday night and Friday time frame.
Weakness in the upper-levels will be present during the long term; this adds a great deal of uncertainty in the timing of features and synoptic progression.

Forecast will include mainly chance PoPs through all the periods of the term. Not really seeing anything too impactful to draw attention to at this point (i.e., severe weather or excessive rainfall). Temperatures look to run above average through much of the term.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...A mixture of VFR/MVFR ceilings until around 02-03Z, before eventually lowering to MVFR/IFR ceilings thereafter.
Temporary visibility restrictions in scattered rain showers.
East winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence, but lower confidence with regard to timing of lowering CIGs .

Sunday...Anticipate IFR conditions most of the day, however there may be some brief lifting up to MVFR during the afternoon.
Rain showers likely. East-Southeast winds around 8-15 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...Mainly sub-VFR with chances for SHRA during most periods. A few periods may see VFR conditions return.

MARINE
No marine headlines in effect through Sunday. Ocean waves 2-4 ft with easterly winds 10-15 kt and a few gusts up to 20 kt.
Intervals of reduced vsby in spotty showers.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Wednesday night...No marine headlines anticipated. Mostly cloudy with chances for showers.

Thursday...SCA flag possible. Seas may build to 5 feet in some locations, wind gusts increase to 20-25 kts. Chance of showers (40-60%).

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Denton
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Sat -- 04:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:08 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:09 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:32 PM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:15 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Denton, Choptank River, Maryland (2), Tide feet

Wayman Wharf
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Sat -- 04:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:48 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:12 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:12 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:18 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wayman Wharf, Tuckahoe Creek, Choptank River, Maryland, Tide feet

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