Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 4:12 AM   Moonset 5:06 PM

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FXUS63 KGLD 051128 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 528 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong southerly winds in eastern CO and far western KS late this aft/eve may create hazardous travel conditions for high profile vehicles on east-west routes, such as I-70, where cross winds will be strongest.

- Limited window of opportunity for severe thunderstorms in northwest KS early Monday afternoon, mainly along/east of a line from Norton to Hill City between 1-4 PM CDT.

- 30-45 mph WSW winds and low RH will foster a very high grassland fire danger potential over portions of the area Monday and Tuesday, especially south of I-70.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 445 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Overview: A potent upper level low, presently centered invof northern California, will progress eastward across the Intermountain West (today-tonight).. then abruptly lift NNE-N from the 4-Corners to the western Dakotas (Mon-Mon night).

Today-Tonight: A southerly return flow regime will
return
as the MSLP-H85 height gradient reorients and tightens in response to renewed surface pressure falls in the lee of the central Rockies -- via height falls /increasingly cyclonic flow aloft/ attendant the aforementioned upper level low approaching from the west. Expect strengthening (25-40 mph) southerly winds and a warming trend.. with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, warmest in eastern Colorado. Low-level flow will back to the SSE and further strengthen Sunday evening -- on the eastern periphery of an intensifying lee cyclone in Colorado.
Forecast soundings indicate 40-50 knot SSE flow 'off-the-deck' within a shallow mixed layer in eastern CO and adjacent KS border areas Sunday evening into Sunday night -- after sunset, ~02-03Z -- suggesting a potential for strong winds (30-45 mph G 55 mph), though.. confidence is low with regard to whether or not mixing will be sufficient to transport said flow to the surface / penetrate a near-surface nocturnal inversion.

Mon-Mon night: Guidance indicates that focused forcing /DPVA/ attendant the aforementioned upper wave will largely be relegated to locations north and west of the Tri-State area.. as it lifts NNE-N from central Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle Monday morning. Subsidence in the wake of this feature -- and relatively strong WSW low-mid level flow on the southern periphery of the northward advancing SFC-H85 cyclone -- will rapidly propel a dry low-mid level airmass (manifesting at the surface as a dryline) eastward into central KS late Monday morning and early Monday afternoon. Current and recent runs of the HRRR, NAM NEST and RAP indicate that the dryline will be invof Highway 283 by ~18Z.. and that convective initiation will occur shortly thereafter.. with activity growing upscale and progressing eastward into central/eastern KS during the late afternoon and evening. With the above in mind, expect a narrow spatio-temporal 'window of opportunity' for severe weather in the GLD CWA . along and east of a line from Norton-Hill City- Wakeeney between 18-21Z. 30-45 mph WSW winds and low RH readings will foster a very high grassland fire danger potential over portions of the area during the day on Monday, especially south of Interstate 70.. where a Red Flag Warning may be necessary.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Most of next week's weather will be influenced by a large upper low moving over the Northwest CONUS while the trough extends south towards the Mexico border. This low is expected to linger over the Great Plains and Rockies through Friday. Given the pattern and the potential for shortwave disturbances to also move over the Tri-State area, there is a chance (up to 30%) of showers and thunderstorms over various portions of the area. Wednesday currently has the least amount of confidence for any precipitation due to a lack of moisture and a surface high lingering over the Rockies. Severe weather is not anticipated during the period as instability is limited in the long range guidance.

There is concern for critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday along and south of a Logan County to Cheyenne County, Colorado line.
RH values are forecast to fall into the low to mid teens with WSW to westerly winds gusting up to 45-50 mph. Locales north of the area of concern are expected to remain in the upper teens for RH with gusts up to 45 mph. Wednesday has the potential for near critical to critical fire weather conditions with RH values in the mid to upper teens along and south of a Yuma to Oakley line. Northwest winds are forecast to gust up to 35 mph. Overlapping conditions are a limiting factor for the southwest corner being able to reach Red Flag criteria as winds decrease during the late afternoon.

Late Friday into Saturday the upper low finally begins to move over the Eastern CONUS. Shortwave ridging is expected to move over the Tri-State area ahead of another upper low that should move across the Great Basin. Some showers and non-severe storms remain possible in the afternoon primarily over Colorado with up to 20% confidence.
Temperatures during the long term are expected to be mainly in the 60s to 70s each day, except for Friday which is forecast to be in the 60s across the area. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s each night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 514 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

GLD: MVFR (perhaps IFR) stratus is anticipated for a period this morning. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter, through the afternoon and evening. Sub-VFR ceilings may return near the end of the TAF period (06-12Z Mon). SSE to S winds will increase to 15-25 knots within a few hours after sunrise.. further increasing to 20-30 knots by late morning, 25-35 knots this afternoon and (perhaps) 30-40 knots this evening.

MCK: VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the majority of the TAF period. MVFR-IFR ceilings are anticipated to rapidly develop near the end of the TAF period (09-12Z Mon).
SSE to S winds will increase to 20-30 knots by mid-afternoon..
further increasing to 25-35 knots late this afternoon and evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

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