Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Russell Springs, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 7:54PM Monday March 18, 2019 10:30 AM CDT (15:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:15PMMoonset 5:34AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Russell Springs, KS
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location: 38.89, -101     debug


Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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Fxus63 kgld 181504
afdgld
area forecast discussion
national weather service goodland ks
904 am mdt Mon mar 18 2019

Update
Issued at 904 am mdt Mon mar 18 2019
for the latest estf update... Only minor tweaks to morning sky
cover otherwise forecast is in good shape at this time. With the
cloud cover currently over northern portions of the cwa... Will
have to monitor forecasted highs for this area and may have to
lower if morning temps do not rebound.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 300 am mdt Mon mar 18 2019
upper low will drop southward from the northern plains tonight,
with a lead shortwave rotating around it bringing a chance for
light precipitation. Forecast point soundings show a stout warm
layer in the lower levels which will result in the precipitation
type being mostly rain. After 06z, will see some changeover to
snow in northeast colorado as the column saturates in persistent
precipitation, with that changeover moving eastward into the rest
of the area Tuesday morning. Accumulations, if any, will be less
than one inch. Precipitation will end west to east Tuesday morning
as the lead wave moves out and the main upper low skirts the area
to the east. Breezy north winds and clouds will keep temperatures
near normal for Tuesday, with highs in the lower 50s. Will start
to clear out Tuesday night as upper low moves away and shortwave
ridge builds in its wake. Wednesday will be mostly sunny with
light winds under the ridge. Highs will warm into the upper 50s.

Long term (Thursday through Sunday)
issued at 229 am mdt Mon mar 18 2019
forecast problem will be details of incoming storm system precipitation
chances from Thursday into the weekend. Satellite showing an amplified
and active flow from the pacific into the western atlantic. The
pattern has amplified a little over the last 24 hours.

Models continuing to show an amplified and complicated evolution
with the next incoming upper system. Models not too bad too start
with in having a cutoff system moving steadily northeast the
beginning of the weekend. However, that is where they start to
diverge and eventually come into major disagreement by the end of
the weekend.

Considering the current recent amplified pattern, it would be appear
a more amplified and slower solution would be more likely. The gfs
is the outlier moving the system through faster and taking it
farther north than other available output. The ECMWF and canadian
are slower with the ECMWF the slowest. The ECMWF slowed down from
its previous run. Even the GEFS mean and a large number of its
members would also support the slower further south and west
solution with this system.

Per the above reasoning and national guidance, the ECMWF mean
ensemble guidance is preferred. Saying all that there appears to be
an increasing chance of precipitation into the weekend with the
Friday into Saturday period having the best chance at this time.

Considering the position of the system and the warm thermal profile,
the phase looks to stay rain. Only during the late night and early
morning hours will there be a chance of a rain snow mix or brief
changeover to snow.

Precipitable water values look to be slightly above average so could
get moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Also with time, instability
increases, and would not be surprised to have some embedded
thunderstorms. Overall made little to no changes to the guidance
that the forecast builder gave me.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 537 am mdt Mon mar 18 2019
vfr expected at both kgld and kmck through the TAF period.

Tonight, an upper level disturbance will bring scattered rain
showers to the area during the evening, possibly changing to or
mixing with snow showers during the overnight and early Tuesday
morning time period. A brief shower could result in MVFR
conditions due to lowered ceilings.

Gld watches warnings advisories
Ks... None.

Co... None.

Ne... None.

Update... Jn
short term... 024
long term... Buller
aviation... 024


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Goodland, Renner Field, KS50 mi37 minESE 810.00 miOvercast29°F26°F89%1029.9 hPa

Wind History from GLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS13S10S8S7SW8N8NW10
G15
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N9NE9N8E4NE8NE9NE6NE4N5NE6NE6CalmNE3NE4E8
1 day agoN10N7N7534N6NE4NE4NE7E6SE4CalmCalmCalm--E3SE4S5S6SW3SW4SW5SW11
2 days agoNW9NW7N4W10
G16
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W8NW7N5CalmCalmCalmSE4SE4S3S7S3N4NW4NW4NW5NW4N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Goodland, KS (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Goodland, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.