Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 12:53 AM   Moonset 9:50 AM

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FXUS63 KGLD 290958 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 358 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy frost possible in northeast zones around sunrise this morning.

- Elevated/Near Critical fire weather conditions are possible south for Tuesday/Wednesday afternoons.

- Severe weather is possible Wednesday afternoon/evening for areas along/east of Highway 25.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 301 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are mainly clear except for some scattered clouds where sprinkles are occurring and should dissipate over the next hour. As of 200 AM MDT, temperatures are ranging in the upper 30s to lower 40s with light/variable winds.

The main wx concerns expected for the short term period will be some possible elevated/near critical fire wx conditions setting up over southern portions of the CWA Also for Wednesday/Wednesday evening, the threat for severe weather returns for areas along/east of Highway 25.

For today, the region will be looking at zonal flow aloft and a surface ridge continuing to push through the region, allowing for dry and sunny conditions to ensue area-wide. Westerly flow today will give way to southerly flow tonight as the ridge shifts east, and a lee-side trough sets up over the Front Range.

Going into Tuesday, southerly flow persists through the day, but guidance shifts the trough to the west off the Front Range as a front pushing slowly through the area. This will cause a wide temp gradient to work up as northerly flow envelops much of the northern CWA Despite zonal flow aloft, a couple weak 700mb shortwaves do work through the flow and could trigger a few isolated rw/trw.
Latest CAMs do show Yuma county in Colorado and Graham/Norton counties in Kansas as the recipients if this does occur. Not expecting impacts from these.

For Tuesday night on into Wednesday night, chances for rw/trw potential do increase especially on Wednesday. The front from Tuesday will stall over southern Kansas, forming a low over the southwestern tier counties. A 700mb shortwave will also traverse the NW tier of the CWA during this time. Easterly flow sets up over the region initially Tuesday night into Wednesday, but eventually southeast flow prevail for the afternoon/evening hours. Overnight, northerly flow returns.

As the flow switches, looking for increased low level moisture feeding into the area. A dryline does set up over the area, pushing slowly westward as the afternoon/evening hours progress Wednesday.
The increased moisture/instability along the boundary will trigger some potential strong to severe storms. SPC does have a Marginal Risk for severe Highway 25 and east, running into a Slight Risk for locales Highway 83 and east. West of Highway 25 not expected to see strong/severe storms but will be dependent on how far west the dry air retreats. All hazards (large hail, damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes) are possible. While there is no WPC Excessive Rainfall area at this time, some training of storms could create localized issues and will have to be monitored.

Besides the potential for storms, extreme southern zones could see the chance for localized elevated to near critical fire wx conditions Tuesday/Wednesday afternoons. Wind criteria could be met for a few hrs, and humidity has wavered in the upper teens for the past several forecast runs. These areas are also some of the spots that have received the least rain over the past week.

For temps, highs today will range in the 70s, with warmest areas east of the Colorado border. On Tuesday, mainly 70s are expected, but areas south of I-70 will range around the 80F mark. Wednesday, slightly warmer and above normal for many areas with 80s expected south of a line from the Burlington, Colorado area over to Colby, Kansas then southeast towards Grinnell, Kansas. North of this line, mainly 70s are expected.

Overnight lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 40s west of Highway 25. East of there, upper 40s to lower 50s. For Tuesday and Wednesday nights, 40s are expected for most with warmest areas east of Highway 83, where some locales Wednesday night could only see the 50F mark.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 113 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

At the start of the long term period, the area is under southwesterly flow aloft as an upper level trough axis is crossing the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will have recently moved through, placing temperatures slightly below normal, only into the middle-upper 50s to upper 60s. Light showers and a few rumbles of thunder may continue for parts of the area through the day (25-35% chance) and even on into the weekend (~20% chance) as weak disturbances move through the generally zonal flow. The area will undergo a warming trend beginning Friday, with temperatures climbing into the middle 60s to low-mid 70s, upper 60s to middle 70s Saturday, and middle 70s to low 80s Sunday. Overnight lows from 30s to near 40 Thursday night-Friday morning to 40s Friday night, then middle 40s to middle 50s through the remainder of the long term.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 355 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds, west around 10kts. Gusts to 20kts possible from 16z-23z. By 23z, backing to the southwest, and by 01z Tuesday, south- southeast around 10-15kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds, light/variable through 16z, then west-southwest around 10kts. By 00z Tuesday, backing to the south-southeast around 10kts. LLWS 10z-12z Tuesday 190@40kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

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