Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 12:08 AM   Moonset 9:04 AM

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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 443 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Rest of the overnight - W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Today - SW winds around 5 kt - .becoming S late. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed night - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 443 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure building across the area through tonight will bring very warm temperatures and dry conditions. A cold front crosses the waters Tuesday into Wednesday bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure briefly returns Thursday before another front crosses the local waters over the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday afternoon to evening, and again on Friday.

FXUS61 KLWX 290724 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Very warm temperatures for late April are expected through the middle of the week as high pressure sits off the Mid- Atlantic Coast. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances. High pressure briefly returns Thursday. Another cold front arrives over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Deep ridging across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and western Atlantic Ocean will produce the hottest temps of the week this afternoon.
Expect highs to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, with upper 70s to low 80s in the mountains. Dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s keep the heat index below 95. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and evening in the Potomac Highlands and Shenandoah Valley. This is due to upslope winds taking advantage of just enough instability, in addition to deep mixing expected today.
A shower/storm or two could develop east of the Blue Ridge, but coverage and confidence is too low to include more than a 10pct chance of rain. Shower/storm activity quickly diminish after sunset, with all activity dissipating by late evening.

The new NWS Experimental HeatRisk has most of the area under a Moderate Risk for heat-related impacts today. This is due to back days of well above normal warmth, and less relief at night due to mild temperatures, as compared to what is normal for late April (low/mid 70s for highs, and upper 40s to low 50s for lows). This level of heat this early in the season could cause impacts to heat- sensitive populations, including those outdoors and without adequate cooling/hydration. Additional information about HeatRisk can be found at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk.

Expect warm temps in the 70s to low 80s this evening, and mild overnight lows in the 60s for most.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The ridge aloft moves east Tuesday as an upper trough and associated cold front approach from the west. The latest models indicate a slower moving trough that reaches the area Tuesday afternoon, and finally moving east of the area Wednesday night.

This is going to generate a couple rounds of showers and storms across the area, beginning Tuesday afternoon as a cold front crosses the area. Scattered to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms develop Tuesday early afternoon west of the Blue Ridge, pushing east of the Blue Ridge late afternoon into the evening. Most shower/storm activity dissipates by late evening, though isolated showers will be possible through the overnight.

Come Wednesday morning, the main upper trough is forecast to be east of the Blue Ridge and the cold front east of the area. A reinforcing upper trough quickly crosses the area Wednesday, helping to produce scattered showers, mostly along/east of I-81. Some instability present east of the Blue Ridge should allow some thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. The entire system moves east of the area by Wednesday evening as dry conditions return.

The prospects for severe storms on Tuesday continue to be low given low instability and very weak shear. If any strong storms do develop, they are most likely to occur west of the Blue Ridge Tuesday afternoon. Any strong storm will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40-50mph, in addition to frequent lightning strikes.

Well above normal temperatures continue through mid week as highs reach the mid to upper 80s Tuesday, and low to mid 80s Wednesday.
Very mild Tuesday night lows in the low to mid 60s, cooling slightly to the mid to upper 50s Wednesday night behind the front.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
After a weak frontal passage Wednesday, strong ridging builds over the East Thursday and holds through the end of the week. The ridge pattern begins to break down Sunday as a weakening southern stream disturbance approaches from the west. A slow moving and decaying frontal zone will attempt to cross the area early next week bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Moisture looks plentiful, but both forcing and instability look weak to support any significant threat of either severe wx or flooding.

By Monday, the front appears to push far enough south to limit PoPs, but treating this like a summer front, when models are too fast in pushing fronts through the area.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected today and tonight as high pressure over the region brings mostly dry and hot conditions. A few showers and storms are possible around MRB late this afternoon, though coverage is too low to include in TAF at this time.

A cold front will cross the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to all terminals. Some storms will be capable of producing wind gusts over 35 knots and lightning strikes, as well as brief periods of reduced visibility.
Most convection dissipates Tuesday evening, though some shower activity could linger across the area Tuesday night.

A second reinforcing upper trough moves across the area Wednesday, causing scattered showers to develop. Some thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday afternoon east of the Blue Ridge. This activity quickly moves east of the area by Wednesday evening.

Outside of shower/storm activity, VFR conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

No sig weather is expected Thu or Fri.

MARINE
Favorable marine conditions likely today through Tuesday morning as high pressure brings mostly dry and warm conditions to the local waters.

A cold front will cross the waters Tuesday late afternoon to evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 35 knots or greater and lightning strikes. Special Marine Warnings may be needed as these storms cross the waters. Most of the shower and storm activity dissipates by late Tuesday evening.

Southerly channeling is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the front, which could produce a period of SCA conditions in the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay.

Winds are forecast to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday.

SCA conditions possible Friday into the weekend.

CLIMATE
Near-record to record warmth is likely this afternoon. Below is a list of record high temperatures for April 29th, and the year the record was set.

Apr 29th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 91F (2017+) 92F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 89F (2017) 91F Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1951) 90F Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (1974) 88F Charlottesville (CHO)* 92F (1974) 90F Hagerstown (HGR)* 90F (1974) 88F Annapolis (NAK)* 92F (1974) 85F

+ denotes that multiple years reached this value, but the depicted year is the most recent * denotes sites where Record Event Reports (RERs) are not issued

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

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Rhode River (County Wharf)
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Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:08 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:05 AM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:37 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
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Rhode River (County Wharf), Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Mon -- 12:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:20 AM EDT     -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:52 PM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:09 PM EDT     0.31 knots Max Flood
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Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

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