Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Racine, OH
May 2, 2024 2:02 PM EDT (18:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM Moonset 1:03 PM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 021751 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 151 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend tonight into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms as it washes out over the area this weekend. Active next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 142 PM Thursday...
High pressure to our east keeps dry weather conditions across the area through tonight. A dry frontal boundary to our north moves north as a warm front tonight and Friday, positioning the area under a warm sector for the next cold front / low pressure system.
Friday's afternoon instability builds about 1,000 J/Kg, PWATS increase to 1.6 inches under low deep layered shear. These ingredients will support scattered showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy downpours will be possible with the stronger storms.
Returned flow from the south and warm air aloft provides mild temperatures for tonight despite of mostly clear skies and near calm surface winds. Lows will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, with few spots dropping into the upper 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. Increasing southerly flow aloft brings WAA for Friday brings hot conditions, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s higher elevations.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 PM Thursday...
Warm and humid conditions across the area Saturday, with showers and storms expected as a shortwave crosses the region. This will be followed by another wave that will cross the area on Sunday. With the warm and humid conditions in place/PW values progged to climb to around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, or well above normal for this time of year, will see heavy downpours at times. Light flow during the period, particularly on Sunday, could lead to some localized water issues, but overall threat for flooding is low, due to antecedent dry conditions, and continued greenup of vegetation. Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be cooler owing to the increased cloud cover/shower and storm activity, but it will still feel muggy. There is a possible brief lull or at least decrease in the precipitation expected late Sunday as the shortwave moves east of the area.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1154 AM Thursday...
Active weather continues for the extended period as another shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the potential for flooding issues increasing during this period, particularly Tuesday onward.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 141 PM Thursday...
Widespread VFR conditions under near calm flow are expected through at least 12Z Friday. High clouds will gradually increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. This front, together with mid level shortwaves, will promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, with more confidence during the afternoon and evening hours. Ceilings may become MVFR across the Middle OH valley towards 00Z Saturday to affect PKB and HTS first, before spreading east across the entire area overnight Friday night into 12-13Z Saturday.
Light and variable winds are expected through the majority of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain and storms Friday night through Saturday, and in stratus and fog Sunday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 151 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend tonight into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms as it washes out over the area this weekend. Active next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 142 PM Thursday...
High pressure to our east keeps dry weather conditions across the area through tonight. A dry frontal boundary to our north moves north as a warm front tonight and Friday, positioning the area under a warm sector for the next cold front / low pressure system.
Friday's afternoon instability builds about 1,000 J/Kg, PWATS increase to 1.6 inches under low deep layered shear. These ingredients will support scattered showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy downpours will be possible with the stronger storms.
Returned flow from the south and warm air aloft provides mild temperatures for tonight despite of mostly clear skies and near calm surface winds. Lows will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, with few spots dropping into the upper 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. Increasing southerly flow aloft brings WAA for Friday brings hot conditions, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s higher elevations.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 PM Thursday...
Warm and humid conditions across the area Saturday, with showers and storms expected as a shortwave crosses the region. This will be followed by another wave that will cross the area on Sunday. With the warm and humid conditions in place/PW values progged to climb to around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, or well above normal for this time of year, will see heavy downpours at times. Light flow during the period, particularly on Sunday, could lead to some localized water issues, but overall threat for flooding is low, due to antecedent dry conditions, and continued greenup of vegetation. Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be cooler owing to the increased cloud cover/shower and storm activity, but it will still feel muggy. There is a possible brief lull or at least decrease in the precipitation expected late Sunday as the shortwave moves east of the area.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1154 AM Thursday...
Active weather continues for the extended period as another shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the potential for flooding issues increasing during this period, particularly Tuesday onward.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 141 PM Thursday...
Widespread VFR conditions under near calm flow are expected through at least 12Z Friday. High clouds will gradually increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. This front, together with mid level shortwaves, will promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, with more confidence during the afternoon and evening hours. Ceilings may become MVFR across the Middle OH valley towards 00Z Saturday to affect PKB and HTS first, before spreading east across the entire area overnight Friday night into 12-13Z Saturday.
Light and variable winds are expected through the majority of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain and storms Friday night through Saturday, and in stratus and fog Sunday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Charleston, WV,
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