Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Racine, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:41PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:21 PM EDT (17:21 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:11AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Racine, OH
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location: 38.89, -81.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 231659
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
1259 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Mid level disturbance and cold front bring potentially strong
to severe thunderstorms today. Front stalls south Friday. Very
warm and humid with storm chances this weekend.

Near term through Friday
As of 1259 pm Thursday...

latest radar mosaic shows a ne-sw oriented line of showers and
thunderstorms continues to push east across portions of the
region. In the rain-cooled air, temperatures were currently in
the low to mid 70s with readings in the upper 70s to near 80
elsewhere.

Am concerned about the amount of severe weather that we could
see this afternoon and evening. Airmass is quite worked over.

Mesoscale models suggest the airmass will remover somewhat.

However, do not think we will see the large CAPE numbers that
were previously advertised.

Because we have been advertising severe thunderstorms in the
forecast today, am not planning on removing the mention of severe
storms. However, will trim back the mention to the slgt risk
area.

With that being said, still feel that additional showers and
storms will redevelop along and ahead of a cold front which is
expected to push south across the area tonight. Precipitation
chances will end as the boundary pushes south. Current thinking
is that the front will be across our far southern counties by
morning.

On Friday, any precipitation chances should be limited to our
southern counties which should be closest to the front.

Latest blend of model guidance is fairly close to previous
mint maxt numbers. So only plan to make minor tweaks.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 425 am Thursday...

an upper level ridge in the southeast CONUS builds northward
into the region while a surface high in the great lakes noses in
from the north. This will bring a fairly sharp dewpoint
gradient across the area with dewpoints in the upper 60s low 70s
across southern areas and mid 50s for northern areas with low
level northerly flow advecting in drier air to begin the period.

In addition, a stalled frontal boundary will linger across
southern areas of the CWA in the wake of Thursday's system and
as convective temperatures get reached in the afternoon, enough
low level convergence could be present to support a mention of a
few isolated showers and storms. There will also be a strip on
enhanced instability setting up along and south of the boundary
in the vicinity of the higher dewpoints. These factors will
combine to support a mention of isolated showers and storms
across northeast ky into the southern coalfields and southwest
va, but thinking convection will not impact the remainder of the
region given the ridging aloft and lack of any upper support or
instability. Thus, have low pops in the aforementioned areas
Friday afternoon and early evening, but chances of showers and
storms will rapidly diminish by sunset with the loss od daytime
heating.

Chances for greater coverage of convection will increase on Saturday
as the upper level ridge gets shunted southward by a shortwave
trough and associated surface low that will be moving across
northern ontario. A cold front trailing the low pressure system will
move eastward across the ohio valley through the afternoon and
eventually push into our region by the evening. Ahead of the front,
a pre-frontal trough should combine with modest instability values
(mlcape around 2,000-2,500 j kg) to allow scattered showers and
storms to develop by the afternoon. In addition, models indicate
that 0-6 km shear values will be in the 30-35 kt range so a few
strong storms can't be ruled out. As the cold front approaches the
region by the evening, it could stall just north of the area, so
will keep pops across northern portions of the CWA Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 425 am Thursday...

with a stalled boundary north of the region and a upper level
shortwave embedded in the zonal flow aloft, scattered showers and
storms will once again be possible across the region on Sunday. Have
highest pops in northern portions of the fa with lesser amounts
across southern areas. It will also be another hot and humid day as
highs reach the mid upper 80s on Sunday afternoon. Monday will
feature mainly dry weather as the upper ridge in the southeast once
again builds northward into the region. However, most areas will
have at least a small chance of showers and storms, which will be
mainly diurnally driven in the absence of any significant upper
support.

Even warmer conditions will then move into the region by Tuesday as
a southwest flow aloft increases ahead of a low pressure system that
will be moving into the northern great lakes. This pattern should
support widespread highs in the upper 80s and low 90s on Tuesday
afternoon. Model then show the warm and humid conditions continuing
into the middle of the week as the upper level ridge in the
southeast continues to influence the region.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 1259 pm Thursday...

a line of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR conditions
continues to push east across the region. Some isolated
locations could see ifr conditions. Outside of the
precipitation,VFR conditions are common.

These showers and storms with MVFR and even isold ifr conditions
will continue to push east with additional storms expected to
form behind the line. There is still the potential for
thunderstorms to become strong to severe, especially across
southeast ohio and northern wv.

Expect a cold front will push south across the region with the
showers and storms ending across a locations as the front
pushes through. In addition, gusty southwest winds will decrease
in strength around 00 utc and then become westerly or even
northwesterly.

In addition, MVFR ceilings may develop overnight in and near the
mountains, possibly lowering to ifr in the mountains toward
dawn Friday,
forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Friday...

forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: gusty winds may vary this evening. Strong
thunderstorms may directly impact TAF sites this afternoon and
evening. Development of MVFR ceilings tonight may vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
edt 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h m m m m m m m m m
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h m h h h
after 18z Friday...

widespread ifr conditions are not expected at this time.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Trm rg
near term... Jsh
short term... Rg
long term... Rg
aviation... Jsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 3I2 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5------------------------------------CalmSW4CalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.