Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Hill, OH
May 14, 2024 7:37 AM EDT (11:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 11:06 AM Moonset 1:13 AM |
FXUS61 KRLX 141105 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 705 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Precipitation returns today with showers lasting into Wednesday due to a slow moving low pressure system. Mainly dry Thursday, then unsettled to end the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 703 AM Tuesday...
Made some substantial upward adjustments to PoPs this morning to better reflect widespread showers from the southern coalfields to the Metro Valley heading north associated with a shortwave lifting north. Should see a lull in precipitation/tapering to isolated showers as subsidence behind this feature spreads over the region late morning into early afternoon.
As of 640 AM Tuesday...
Updated temperatures, dew points and precipitation forecast, otherwise everything remains on track.
As of 200 AM Tuesday...
Starting to see some light showers traverse the area this morning as a surface trough extends over the region. A slow- moving low pressure system over MO/IL will gradually make its way to us today, while in the meantime sending more of these shower spawning perturbations over the region.
For now, kept chance PoPs until the afternoon when more light to moderate showers will move through from SW to NE. The heaviest of the rain looks to hold off until this tonight though, and even then amounts will be less than half an inch. WPC has most of the area, minus the northern lowlands, outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall as this will be more of an accumulative event over the next few days.
Short-range guidance has been sticking to its guns on precipitable water values nearing 1.50" the past few days, but latest HRRR and NAM guidance has backed off quite a bit, still above 1.00" though, but no higher than 1.30". Some localized flooding may occur within some moderate to heavy bands of showers, but not currently concerned with anything impactful.
Models are split on how warm temperatures will get today, depending on extent of cloud cover. Starting to see more trend downward though which would impact convection. We are outlooked for general thunderstorms today, and a few isolated thunderstorms are likely if clearing does occur this afternoon.
Models are slowing the speed at which the low pressure circulation moves across the Ohio River Valley and keep the region out of the warm sector. That said, instability looks very meager (less than 500 J/Kg) until the low arrives later in the evening.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 250 AM Tuesday...
Both the upper-level and surface lows will take their time moving across the area on Wednesday, with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms expected. The base of the upper trough will slide off to the east Wednesday night, and precip coverage should diminish across the area as a result. A shortwave upper- level ridge will move over the area on Thursday, but indications are that it will be a 'dirty' ridge, with some showers and a few thunderstorms possible. This activity will be strongly diurnally driven, and also with a significant terrain influence, but we could still see some convection in the lower elevations. All activity seems likely to drop off Thursday night.
If there are any ongoing hydro issues Wednesday morning, they could be exacerbated by the further rainfall during the day Wednesday, but overall the system seems more likely to just be a healthy soaking rain. Temps will remain somewhat suppressed on Wednesday with the widespread clouds and showers, and should bounce back a bit on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 315 AM Tuesday...
The next disturbance approaches on Friday, with shower and thunderstorm activity likely increasing in the afternoon and overnight hours. There is a chance this could be another slow- moving system, but models disagree greatly on just how slow.
That said, likely POPs over 50% are maintained through Saturday.
After that, models diverge on whether there will be a break or if this system will linger over the region, and on how quickly the next disturbance will arrive. So while the uncertainty leads to maintaining chance POPs across the area on Sunday and Monday, it's not likely to have activity across the area that whole time. There will be breaks, but pinning down the time of those breaks just isn't possible at this time.
There's a good chance that Friday will be a bit warmer than normal ahead of the encroaching front and precip, with lower elevation highs mainly in the lower 80s. The forecast is a few degrees lower on Saturday with the greater confidence in it being rainy and cloudy that day. Sunday and Monday temperatures will likely hinge a lot on the evolution of the precip and sky cover forecast.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 645 AM Tuesday...
Showers will continue to move through the area early this morning before slacking off some early in the afternoon.
Expecting more widespread coverage later this afternoon into the overnight hours. VFR or high-end MVFR expected through the morning, with the lowest CIGs and VIS most likely across the mountains. Expecting a reprieve early this afternoon with most sites seeing VFR.
MVFR CIG/VIS restrictions expected in any moderate to heavy showers. Allowed VCTS this evening between ~23Z and ~03Z for a few sites as forcing from a more prominent shortwave could allow for some isolated TS, but not confident in this manifesting due to very weak instability. MVFR and IFR restrictions arrive in earnest overnight tonight with scattered showers filling in Wednesday.
Winds mostly light with a southerly component through the period, though will likely be breezy at times across the mountains and the Ohio River Valley this afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VIS/CIGs could be lower than forecast within moderate to heavier showers.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in heavier rain showers Wednesday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 705 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Precipitation returns today with showers lasting into Wednesday due to a slow moving low pressure system. Mainly dry Thursday, then unsettled to end the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 703 AM Tuesday...
Made some substantial upward adjustments to PoPs this morning to better reflect widespread showers from the southern coalfields to the Metro Valley heading north associated with a shortwave lifting north. Should see a lull in precipitation/tapering to isolated showers as subsidence behind this feature spreads over the region late morning into early afternoon.
As of 640 AM Tuesday...
Updated temperatures, dew points and precipitation forecast, otherwise everything remains on track.
As of 200 AM Tuesday...
Starting to see some light showers traverse the area this morning as a surface trough extends over the region. A slow- moving low pressure system over MO/IL will gradually make its way to us today, while in the meantime sending more of these shower spawning perturbations over the region.
For now, kept chance PoPs until the afternoon when more light to moderate showers will move through from SW to NE. The heaviest of the rain looks to hold off until this tonight though, and even then amounts will be less than half an inch. WPC has most of the area, minus the northern lowlands, outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall as this will be more of an accumulative event over the next few days.
Short-range guidance has been sticking to its guns on precipitable water values nearing 1.50" the past few days, but latest HRRR and NAM guidance has backed off quite a bit, still above 1.00" though, but no higher than 1.30". Some localized flooding may occur within some moderate to heavy bands of showers, but not currently concerned with anything impactful.
Models are split on how warm temperatures will get today, depending on extent of cloud cover. Starting to see more trend downward though which would impact convection. We are outlooked for general thunderstorms today, and a few isolated thunderstorms are likely if clearing does occur this afternoon.
Models are slowing the speed at which the low pressure circulation moves across the Ohio River Valley and keep the region out of the warm sector. That said, instability looks very meager (less than 500 J/Kg) until the low arrives later in the evening.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 250 AM Tuesday...
Both the upper-level and surface lows will take their time moving across the area on Wednesday, with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms expected. The base of the upper trough will slide off to the east Wednesday night, and precip coverage should diminish across the area as a result. A shortwave upper- level ridge will move over the area on Thursday, but indications are that it will be a 'dirty' ridge, with some showers and a few thunderstorms possible. This activity will be strongly diurnally driven, and also with a significant terrain influence, but we could still see some convection in the lower elevations. All activity seems likely to drop off Thursday night.
If there are any ongoing hydro issues Wednesday morning, they could be exacerbated by the further rainfall during the day Wednesday, but overall the system seems more likely to just be a healthy soaking rain. Temps will remain somewhat suppressed on Wednesday with the widespread clouds and showers, and should bounce back a bit on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 315 AM Tuesday...
The next disturbance approaches on Friday, with shower and thunderstorm activity likely increasing in the afternoon and overnight hours. There is a chance this could be another slow- moving system, but models disagree greatly on just how slow.
That said, likely POPs over 50% are maintained through Saturday.
After that, models diverge on whether there will be a break or if this system will linger over the region, and on how quickly the next disturbance will arrive. So while the uncertainty leads to maintaining chance POPs across the area on Sunday and Monday, it's not likely to have activity across the area that whole time. There will be breaks, but pinning down the time of those breaks just isn't possible at this time.
There's a good chance that Friday will be a bit warmer than normal ahead of the encroaching front and precip, with lower elevation highs mainly in the lower 80s. The forecast is a few degrees lower on Saturday with the greater confidence in it being rainy and cloudy that day. Sunday and Monday temperatures will likely hinge a lot on the evolution of the precip and sky cover forecast.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 645 AM Tuesday...
Showers will continue to move through the area early this morning before slacking off some early in the afternoon.
Expecting more widespread coverage later this afternoon into the overnight hours. VFR or high-end MVFR expected through the morning, with the lowest CIGs and VIS most likely across the mountains. Expecting a reprieve early this afternoon with most sites seeing VFR.
MVFR CIG/VIS restrictions expected in any moderate to heavy showers. Allowed VCTS this evening between ~23Z and ~03Z for a few sites as forcing from a more prominent shortwave could allow for some isolated TS, but not confident in this manifesting due to very weak instability. MVFR and IFR restrictions arrive in earnest overnight tonight with scattered showers filling in Wednesday.
Winds mostly light with a southerly component through the period, though will likely be breezy at times across the mountains and the Ohio River Valley this afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VIS/CIGs could be lower than forecast within moderate to heavier showers.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in heavier rain showers Wednesday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPMH GREATER PORTSMOUTH RGNL,OH | 11 sm | 15 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.88 | |
| KDWU ASHLAND RGNL,KY | 24 sm | 41 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 29.88 |
Charleston, WV,
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