Wednesday, February20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Wright City, MO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:47PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 12:54 AM CST (06:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:16PMMoonset 7:44AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wright City, MO
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location: 38.89, -91.04     debug

Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 200535
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
1135 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019

Issued at 816 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019
have updated the forecast to slow onset time of precipitation from
southwest to northeast this evening. The slower movement has been
mainly due a combination of slower movement the mid-level system
and dry low level air seen on evening upper air analysis. Also
updated the forecast to add more sleet and freezing rain based on
reports that we have so far. This will take away some from the
snowfall totals, but the impacts from the advisory will still be
the same. Hazardous travel conditions can be expected once the
wintry conditions begin. Temperature trends overnight still look
good, with temperatures near steady or rising over at least the
southeast half of the CWA which will cause freezing rain drizzle
to turn over to liquid late tonight into early Wednesday.


Short term (through late Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 331 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019
focus remains on winter precip tonight into Wed morning. Main
changes were to increase qpf, and therefore snow, across central the
southern half or so of the cwa.

Models depict a low level band of frontogenesis developing across
the central portions of the cwa. This should result in an west-east
band of snow developing over the next hour or so. Exactly where this
will setup is less certain, but expected to be from generally kcou
to kstl and perhaps a little further east. This band should move
north early this afternoon and may diminish somewhat before
redeveloping across northern portions of the cwa. This may allow a
brief lull period for central portions of the CWA before the main
precip shield currently along the mo ar border arrives.

The nam GFS rap hrrr now suggest more QPF across the southeast half
of the CWA this evening. This results in slightly more snow for
these areas. This is not a drastic change due to slightly lower slrs
than previously expected.

Precip is still expected to begin as snow across the region this
afternoon and evening. There is some uncertainty regard p-type
across far southern counties as strong WAA may help to turn the snow
over to sleet or fzra slightly quicker than currently forecast.

However, do not anticipate drastic changes from the forecast at this
time. Otherwise, as the dry slot moves into the area tonight, expect
cloud to loose ice crystals. With this, the snow will change over to
fzdz fzra. Again, the timing of this is less certain, but overall
forecast remains on track.

This is still expected to result in around a tenth of an inch of ice
across portions of central into NE mo and west central il by 12z
wed. Do expect some fzdz to linger beyond sunrise Wed across this
same region. The freezing precip will come to an end late tonight
through Wed morning from south to north as temperatures rise above
the freezing mark. Some minor tweaks to this have also been made,
but again, overall trends remain similar.

With only minor changes to the forecast, the headlines remain in
good shape and have not made any changes.

With the strong WAA anticipated across the region, much of the area
is expected to climb into the 40s for wed. Only far western and
northern portions of the CWA are expected to remain in the upper


Long term (Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
issued at 359 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019
the primary focus through the long term period will revolve around a
strong weekend system, which brings the potential for widespread
rain, gusty winds and a few thunderstorms.

Thursday evening begins the period rather uneventful as the surface
cold front from the prior system pushes east into the ohio valley
and a surface ridge builds in from the west. Mean westerly flow
introduces drier air into the low and mid-levels, while
southwesterly flow aloft persists, resulting from a dominant upper
ridge over the southeastern conus. It's at the western periphery of
this upper ridge where better moisture continues to be fed in from
the south. This will keep some mid to high clouds pushing into the
area Thursday with rh increasing from north to south. Sections of
northeast missouri and west central illinois have better potential
for sunshine early in the day, before moisture slowly returns
northward through Thursday afternoon.

As we head into Friday, precipitation chances begin to creep in from
the south with several smaller disturbances focused along the
western edge of the upper ridge. It seems better chances for
widespread rainfall will be over southeast missouri, southern
illinois and southward into the lower mississippi valley. This is
where deeper moisture and better lift will aid with precipitation
development. Otherwise, mid-level dry air remains in place further
north and should inhibit much from panning out further north.

The most formidable system of the period originates out of the
southwestern u.S. Thursday into Friday. An amplified upper trough
begins to swing eastward late in the week and is positioned over the
central plains late Friday into early Saturday. The upper level
trough axis GOES negative tilt with a quickly deepening surface low
pushing northeast around the southeastern periphery of the upper
trough. The system quickly takes on a complex and mature build as
the main upper wave moves in over eastern kansas and northwest
missouri. It looks as though the best chances for thunderstorms will
remain south and east of the st. Louis metro, south of a warm front,
where any real convective potential will surge northeast into
southeast missouri and southern illinois. Though thunder can't be
ruled out over the southern half of the cwa, convective parameters
aren't all that supportive for numerous thunderstorm. Therefore,
slight chance and chance wording was carried through Saturday
afternoon and evening.

I think the main threat Saturday afternoon and evening will be the
wind potential. As the system continues to deepen to our northwest,
the low level jet strengthens and moves overhead. Speed of 50-60 kts
are progged later in the day with near 50 kt speeds as low as 2k
feet. Simply put, near advisory criteria winds look possible into
Saturday evening.

The system system races off to the northeast on Sunday with some
wrap around moisture potentially affecting northeast missouri and
west central illinois with a brief hit of rain snow. Drier
conditions will settle in under zonal flow through the end of the
period. Temperatures will become slightly cooler but remain near
seasonal norms.


Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1119 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019
band of wintry precipitation will reach kuin by 06z, likely
initially as -snpl, but then changeover to -fzra by 08z. A mix of
snow, freezing rain, and sleet at kcou and the st. Louis area
terminals will switch over to freezing rain by 07z before
switching over to rain between 08-10z. All of the precipitation
will end or become drizzle after 10z. Ceilings are expected to
become ifr lifr by 08z and remain that way through at least mid
afternoon. Any additional snow and sleet accumulation will be less
than an inch. A light glazing of ice will be possible at kcou and
the st. Louis area terminals with up to .10 of an inch of ice at

Specifics for kstl:
snow and sleet will switch over to freezing rain then to rain
between 06-08z. All of the precipitation will end or become
drizzle after 10z. Ceilings are expected to become ifr lifr by 08z
and remain that way through at least through 21z. Any additional
snow and sleet accumulation will be less than an inch. A light
glazing of ice will be possible. Easterly winds are expect to veer
easterly during the afternoon.


Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Wednesday for boone mo-
callaway mo-cole mo-crawford mo-franklin mo-gasconade mo-
iron mo-jefferson mo-lincoln mo-madison mo-moniteau mo-
montgomery mo-osage mo-reynolds mo-saint charles mo-saint
francois mo-saint louis city mo-saint louis mo-sainte
genevieve mo-warren mo-washington mo.

Winter weather advisory until noon cst Wednesday for audrain mo-
knox mo-lewis mo-marion mo-monroe mo-pike mo-ralls mo-
shelby mo.

Il... Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Wednesday for bond il-
clinton il-fayette il-madison il-marion il-monroe il-
randolph il-saint clair il-washington il.

Winter weather advisory until noon cst Wednesday for adams il-
brown il-calhoun il-greene il-jersey il-macoupin il-
montgomery il-pike il.

Wfo lsx

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO27 mi61 minE 136.00 miLight Freezing Rain Fog/Mist33°F30°F92%1017 hPa

Wind History from SUS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6CalmE7E9E11NE9E7E9E11E11E15E13E9E11
1 day agoW10W9
2 days agoE6SE6E7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW10W9W12W11

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.