Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 4:49 PM

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FXUS63 KTOP 050559 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1259 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe T-storms appear likely on Monday afternoon into Monday night across the area. All hazards appear possible including tornadoes.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Clouds are only gradually clearing in wake of the front that brought morning showers and storms to the area. Stratus should eventually diminish however another wave moving northeast will usher in more mid and high clouds overnight. This should act to inhibit more widespread fog potential. The wave will also produce another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across southeast KS. Some of that precipitation may make it into areas mainly along and southeast of I-35 late tonight into Sunday.

All attention then turns to the wave that is currently over the CA coast. This wave will quickly emerge into the Plains on Monday morning as the lead shortwave and mid level jet streak take on a negative tilt and move into the Dakotas during the afternoon. A sfc low will move north into southwest SD during the day with a surface trough/dryline extending southward through central KS. There could be late morning storm development along this trough across northwest KS as the initial wave and ht falls overspread the area...however it still appears that the bulk of the development will occur by mid to late afternoon along the sfc boundary where a favorable shear/CAPE values will exist to support severe storm development. Exact location of afternoon development remains in question but may be somewhere in the highway 81/CNK to ICT area developing ENE from that area. Low level shear values especially toward and after sunset will increase with the LLJ such that the tornado risk will increase wherever storms happen to be in that 7pm to 10pm window.

Bottom line is that we need to message that our confidence is increasing that severe storms will occur Monday afternoon into Monday night.

If there is any good news in this forecast it is that a pattern change does appear to be on the horizon such that we may get a break from the severe weather after Monday night perhaps for the rest of week into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Winds remain below 10 kts throughout the period, becoming southeasterly by late morning tomorrow. Initially just high clouds are expected, but lower clouds increase throughout the day tomorrow.
Forecast soundings suggest these will remain generally VFR through most of the day and evening, though some MVFR ceilings may arrive later in the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Topeka, KS,