Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chapman, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:58PM Sunday June 24, 2018 11:17 AM CDT (16:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:49PMMoonset 2:50AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chapman, KS
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location: 38.89, -97     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 241145
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
645 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 348 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
early this morning a complex of thunderstorms was moving across
south central kansas and northern oklahoma. This activity was
following the 850 mb theta-e gradient moving east southeast. The low
level jet was transporting high theta air northward into southern
kansas and oklahoma which will maintain the mcs. Further north
isolated showers were developing across central into northeast
kansas in an area of isentropic lift. Expect any convection to
remain isolated through the morning hours.

The water vapor satellite and profilers shows perhaps a small wave
moving into central kansas and another minor wave moving across
eastern nebraska. The main upper trough low was located over wyoming
and montana while a 60 kt mid level jet was moving across northern
colorado and into northwest kansas. A cluster of thunderstorms has
developed across northeast colorado and was moving into northwest
kansas at 08z. IR satellite was showing cooling cloud tops with the
colorado convection while tops were warming across western nebraska.

The storms will spread a dense cloud shield across central and
eastern kansas. Models offer differing solutions with regards to
timing for convection and how the storms in eastern colorado and
western kansas will move through the area. This may work over the
atmosphere this morning and early afternoon before it recovers later
this evening. That said, with rich moisture to the south expect a
quick return with an increasing low level jet this evening and
overnight. New 06z NAM shows warm front moving northward this
evening into east central kansas with the low level jet increasing
from the south. With the upper trough moving out into the plains
tonight a 50 plus knot mid level jet will move across eastern kansas
along with increasing forcing for ascent with the approach of the
upper trough.

Expect to see scattered convection this morning and then perhaps
into the afternoon. Another cluster of storms is expected to form
and move out of western kansas and into central and north central
kansas this evening and then move eastward along the 850 mb theta-s
gradient which sets up across southern and into east central kansas.

Instability and shear continue to favor the possibility of severe
weather across the entire area. Main hazards look to be damaging
winds and hail along with a tornado or two possible. Given high
precipitable water values and good moisture transport locally heavy
rainfall will be possible which may lead to rises in streams and
possible flooding.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 348 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
precipitation trends overnight will again factor into Monday though
the synoptic scale upper trough will be over northern nebraska and
keep the potential for a moisture gradient to refocus over east
central kansas in the afternoon to early evening. With dewpoints
likely still in the upper 60s to around 70 and mid-level lapse rates
approaching 8 c km, the development of at least moderate ml cape
levels exist with mid upper level wind fields aloft in the 40-70kt
range to support some storm organization despite deep southwest
winds. Somewhat better convergence and deeper moisture should be
over eastern areas and will keep chances limited to mainly the
central and east. For Tuesday, the modified cold front finally sags
south into northern kansas while winds aloft veer. This results in
weak cooling aloft though heights to do rise through the day.

Southerly winds ahead of the front bring deeper moisture into
eastern kansas less cloud and lingering precip anticipated for a
warmer day. Heat indices could breach 100 in some locations. With
moderate to high instability resulting, limited mid-level WAA and
moderate shear in place, another day of afternoon and evening
severe weather potential exists.

Beyond Tuesday night, the main concern continues to be temperatures
and heat indicies as broad high pressure aloft spreads across the
southern CONUS and south to southwest surface winds return. 850 mb
temps in the mid 20s to near 30 c will support highs well into the
90s to around 100 with dewpoints around 70 f for higher heat
indices. The potential exists for a multi-day heat headline event,
exacerbated by lows possibly not falling out the 80s later in the
week as ground conditions warm and dry.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 645 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
vfr conditions are expected outside of convective activity. There
will be scattered tsra through 18z, but confidence not high enough
to add vcts yet. After 00z the tsra chances increase at mhk then
after 02z at top and foe. Models suggesting high probability of
tsra and MVFR to ifr vsbys and CIGS with convection after 06z
through the end of the period and have added prevailing ifr vsbys.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... 53
long term... 65
aviation... 53


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Riley - Marshall AAF, KS17 mi82 minW 810.00 miA Few Clouds78°F65°F67%1010.3 hPa

Wind History from FRI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmSW5E3SW10S3S10S5SW6S3CalmSW3CalmNE4SW4CalmS10SE9S5CalmCalmSW8W8SW8
1 day agoN5W6N6NW5N6N3NE6NE10NE6NE4NE6SE6SE15
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2 days agoNW19
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N11N5N8N4NW3NW4NW3NW6N6N6N5NW6N4CalmNW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.