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FXUS65 KREV 311919 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1219 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

SYNOPSIS

Above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions will persist through early next week with a couple of weak weather systems enhancing afternoon winds Saturday and again Monday. Confidence is high in a significant warmup for mid-late next week as highs approach 100 degrees in hottest western NV valleys, with afternoon thunderstorms also possible.

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Warm weekend-early next week (upper 80s western NV valleys), with enhanced PM breezes (gusts 30-35 mph) Saturday and Monday.
Dry overall, but low-end potential for a few light rain showers.

* More significant heat likely mid-late next week. Highs well into the 90s, possibly reaching 100 for warmest western NV valleys.

* Isolated PM t-storms possible during the hottest days mid-late next week.

Currently we're in a relatively quiet weather pattern with a general west flow aloft over CA/NV. Yesterday a weak upper level disturbance brought brief rain showers to the north shore of Tahoe, and some of the higher resolution guidance hints at a similar scenario later this afternoon. Overall precip chances are rather low though, with only a 5-10% chance for a passing shower from the Tahoe basin northward to central Plumas/western Lassen counties.

For this weekend-early next week, a couple of weak shortwaves brushing across the Pacific NW will bring increased winds mainly north of US-50 Saturday and Monday afternoon, with gusts of 30-35 mph. Otherwise, expect more typical late day breezes with gusts around 25 mph from today-Tuesday. These shortwaves may also bring a low-end possibility for light rain showers well north of I-80 to the OR border Saturday afternoon (10-15% chance) and Monday (15-25% chance). Highs will generally run about 5-10 degrees above average each day through Tuesday, with mid-upper 80s for western NV valleys and 70s for Sierra communities. The only exception is Monday which is looking a few degrees cooler in most areas, but remaining warm along the US-95 corridor.

The more notable weather event will be a significant warmup starting Wednesday with peak temperatures projected for Thursday- Friday as a strong ridge by early June standards builds over areas of the western US. The main question is where the center of the ridge sets up--if it ends up near or just north of the western Great Basin (60-70% of ensemble cluster guidance), the warmer valleys of western NV have a reasonable chance of setting some record highs for the June 5-7 dates and reaching 100 degrees.
For Reno this scenario would establish a new record for the earliest 100 degree day in any calendar year (current record June 7, 2013). If the ridge center ends up farther east near the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners area (30-40% of the cluster guidance), we'll still have highs climb into the 90s, but triple digit heat would be less likely. Sierra communities can expect highs into the 80s, with some sites approaching 90 in the warmer scenarios. Regardless of the outcome, plan on some hot afternoons and adjust activity levels especially if sensitive to heat, but also exercise caution if cooling off in area lakes/rivers/streams, as the water is still cold with some elevated river flows.

Also with the warmup next Wednesday-Friday, the potential increases for isolated afternoon-evening thunderstorms east of the Sierra and extending into western NV each day--also dependent on the eventual location of the upper ridge center. At this time, this period of increased heat appears relatively short lived with about 70% of the medium range ensemble guidance weakening or displacing the ridge by the June 8-9 weekend, including some trough scenarios bringing increased shower/thunder chances.
However, the other 30% of the guidance hangs on to the stronger ridge scenario a little longer. MJD

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend. We'll see typical SW-W winds this afternoon and Sunday with gusts around 20 kts, but more winds peaking around 25-30 kts for Saturday between 20-04Z, leading to areas of increased turbulence for the eastern Sierra/far western NV terminals. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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