Thursday, November23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Queen Anne, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:46PM Thursday November 23, 2017 10:58 PM EST (03:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:56AMMoonset 9:08PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 931 Pm Est Thu Nov 23 2017
Rest of tonight..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 931 Pm Est Thu Nov 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain over the waters through Friday night. A cold front will approach early Saturday before crossing Saturday night. High pressure will return for Sunday and Monday. A small craft advisory will likely be issued for Saturday night and Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Queen Anne, MD
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location: 38.92, -75.95     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240224
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
924 pm est Thu nov 23 2017

High pressure currently over the region will move slowly
offshore on Friday as a cold front approaches the region from
the west. This cold front will pass through the region on
Saturday. Another area of high pressure will build into the
region for the early part of next week then move offshore with
the approach of another cold front by the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
High pressure located over virginia this evening will continue
to influence our weather overnight.

An area of high based stratocumulus was approaching from
western and north central pennsylvania this evening. However,
the guidance continues to suggest that it will erode before
reaching our region. As a result, we are expecting a mostly
clear sky.

The light wind will allow for nearly ideal radiating
conditions. We are anticipating low temperatures to be mostly in
the 20s with some upper teens readings up north and in the
interior of southern new jersey.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
Sunny. Milder in the afternoon after a chilly start. Light wind
trending south to southwest in the afternoon. MAX temps
generally within 2f of normal. Due to poor mixing despite a
sunny day and after early morning chill... Think phl MAX will be

There may be a signal developing in some of the guidance with a
long dry spell apparently developing. High pressure and
radiation cooling options at night may verify temps lower than
guidance. Ggem seems to have that idea. This is due to lack of
mixing except a day before a frontal passage (gradient SW flow).

Daytime max's may not be as high GFS guidance suggests... In
part because of short days.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Friday night through Saturday night:
high pressure will continue to move offshore Friday night
giving way to an approaching cold frontal boundary. This cold
front will move through the area on Saturday. Overall, timing
remains consistent on various models and ensembles for an
afternoon evening frontal passage. Enough lift and moisture
should be present for a few spotty rain showers, primarily in
the afternoon hours. Temperatures Saturday morning may be close
enough to freezing in the southern poconos and NW nj for a
freezing rain concern. Right now any precipitation is expected
to hold off till mid-morning when it warms well above freezing.

Precipitation looks very light, only a few hundredths at best. A
few southerly wind gusts in the afternoon around 15 mph are
possible before the frontal passage. Northwest flow on the
backside of the front could also kick off some sprinkles and
flurries toward sunrise that could be enhanced where the
elevation is highest (southern poconos and NW nj).

Sunday through Thursday:
a fairly strong push of cold air advection will occur behind
the front. This will lead to another period of more winter like
temperatures across the region with stronger northwest winds,
gusting perhaps to 25 mph on Sunday. The northwest flow may also
allow for some moisture to transport southeast off of the great
lakes. The moisture could be enhanced by the higher terrain.

Highs Sunday and Monday will generally be in the 40's with
overnight lows will be in the 20's and 30's. Conditions are
expected to clear later Sunday and Monday as the northwest flow
weakens and high pressure builds into the region.

We should see a fairly quick rebound Tuesday and Wednesday with
temperatures into the 50's, maybe 60 Wednesday? Right now the
forecast stays close or a little above to the mean of the
ensemble guidance on Tuesday and Wednesday. A majority of
ensemble guidance does indicate a pattern favorable for a period
of warm weather. However, the 12z op ec 11 23 does indicate a
stronger push of cold air advection from the northwest Monday
into Tuesday which would lead to lower temperatures. The op ec
looks like an outlier solution at this time. Some uncertainty is
also present with the speed of a cold frontal boundary moving
toward the area sometime Wednesday or more likely Thursday of
next week. For now, went middle of the road between the GFS and
ecmwf and brought in a chance of showers on Thursday. This has
trended a little slower the last couple of model runs. After a
warmer Wednesday, temperatures Thursday should cool a few
degrees back closer to normal.

Happy thanksgiving from all of us here at the national weather
service in mount holly!

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR conditions with a mostly clear sky. A light and
variable wind.

Friday...VFR conditions with a clear sky. A light and variable
wind becoming southwest around 4 to 6 knots.


Friday night:VFR, westerly winds becoming southwesterly but
staying at 10 knots or less. High confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night: sub-vfr possible with some
scattered showers primarily from 15 to 23z. Southerly wind gusts
10-15 knots, becoming northwest Saturday night. Medium to high

Sunday and Sunday night:VFR, a few sprinkles or flurries
possible at kabe Sunday morning. Northwest wind gusts from 20-25
knots. Medium confidence.

Monday through Tuesday night:VFR, west winds around 10-15
knots becoming more southerly on Tuesday. High confidence.

No marine headlines anticipated through Friday. A 3 foot se
swell at 10 seconds is the primary driver of the atlantic
coastal waters forecast.


Friday night: sub-sca southwesterly wino below SCA levels under
15 knots and seas around three feet. High confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night: seas building late Saturday but
staying under 5 feet. Southwesterly wind gusts 15-20 knots in
the afternoon. Winds becoming northwesterly Saturday night and
increasing to 20- 25 knots. Medium confidence.

Sunday and Sunday night: seas steady just under five feet with
some northwest wind gusts around 25 knots. An SCA currently
looks like it will be needed in this period. Medium confidence.

Monday through Tuesday night: westerly wind gusts generally
around 15 knots but increasing on Tuesday closer to 25 knots.

Seas decrease Monday but should begin to build up by Tuesday
close to five feet. Low to medium confidence.

As it stands with our 330pm forecast. It appears the month will
average about a degree or 2 below normal vcnty i-80, near or
slightly below normal remainder of the area except about a
degree above normal near ged. Short waves passing through
eastern canada have not dug quite as far south as indicated 8
days ago when it appeared a below normal month was probable.

This would end up being about degree warmer than our
deterministic solution from the 15th.

There is still uncertainty regarding how temperatures verify
from Tuesday the 28th onward. Todays 12z 23 ggem and ecmwf
operational cycles for 2m temps are significantly cooler for a
day or two between Tuesday and Thursday (28-30th). For now we
lean with the warmer GFS per the GEFS and even the ecefs.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gaines
near term... Iovino
short term... Drag
long term... Gaines
aviation... Gaines iovino
marine... Drag gaines
climate... Drag

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 24 mi40 min 41°F 27°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi46 min 32°F 49°F1019.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi40 min E 2.9 G 4.1 33°F 48°F1018.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 26 mi58 min W 6 G 7 42°F 51°F
44063 - Annapolis 27 mi28 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 40°F 1018.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 28 mi40 min 35°F 1017.9 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 28 mi28 min WSW 7.8 G 7.8 40°F 1018.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 30 mi88 min Calm 28°F 1018 hPa26°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 35 mi28 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 44°F 1019.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi40 min SW 7 G 8.9 37°F 1018.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 40 mi40 min WSW 7 G 8 39°F 50°F1018.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 38°F 53°F1018.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 41 mi88 min Calm 30°F 1018 hPa28°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 43 mi46 min Calm G 1 30°F 47°F1018.8 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 43 mi28 min N 3.9 G 5.8 35°F 1018.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi40 min W 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 1019.2 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 45 mi46 min WNW 8.9 G 12 41°F 1018.8 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi46 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 33°F 49°F1018.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 48 mi40 min 35°F 49°F1018.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 49 mi40 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 39°F 53°F1018.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi40 min W 6 G 8.9 44°F 46°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi2.2 hrsN 010.00 miClear32°F24°F75%1019.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD21 mi78 minN 010.00 miFair34°F30°F87%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN6N3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmN4CalmN5N6N6N6NW3NW5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm
1 day agoS7SW7SW8SW4CalmCalmW4W4W5--N6NW16
2 days agoSW6SW5S4SW5SW4S5S8S8S7S9S14

Tide / Current Tables for Hillsboro, Tuckahoe Creek, Maryland
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Thu -- 05:27 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:05 AM EST     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:08 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:35 PM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 02:31 AM EST     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:17 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:54 AM EST     0.50 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:49 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:22 PM EST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:47 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:28 PM EST     0.82 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:09 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:47 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.