Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 12:01 AM EDT (04:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:08AMMoonset 6:00PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1032 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move up the coast near the delmarva tonight. Another area of low pressure will move through the area Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will cross the waters late Thursday. High pressure will arrive by Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stevensville, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240040
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
840 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A couple of areas of low pressure will pass to our south this
evening then east of our area overnight into Wednesday as they
combine and move along a frontal boundary. As an area of low
pressure moves into the ohio valley Wednesday night into Thursday,
an occluded front and warm front will lift toward our region. A
triple point low will develop and take over as the dominant low as
it moves across our area Thursday night. This low will move away
from the area Friday, with a weak frontal boundary or surface trough
crossing the area during the day. Weak high pressure may briefly
move across the area Friday night into early Saturday. Another
frontal system is expected to affect the area Saturday night into
Sunday, followed by another on Monday and Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Updated were needed with the shield of rain moving in quicker
than earlier expected. Steady rains have already arrived across
srn delaware and into the eastern shore of md. Pops have been
increased in all areas except the lehigh valley and srn
poconos NRN nj. Categorical pops are now in the fcst for much
of SRN nj and DELMARVA for the overnight. QPF amts have been
increased as well. Temperatures and dew points grids and winds
have been decent so far, so no big changes there.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Wednesday... Scattered leftover showers possible in the morning
but it should dry out and be a decent afternoon everywhere.

Northeast wind becomes southeast in the afternoon.

This forecast was based on a 50 50 blend of the 12z 23 GFS nam.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
An unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the extended
forecast with several periods of rain possible.

On Wednesday night, an area of low pressure will be lifting
through the ohio valley and toward the southern great lakes region.

Meanwhile, an occluded front and warm front will be lifting toward
our area. A triple point low is forecast to develop to our
southwest overnight, which will likely slow down the northward
progression of the frontal boundaries. This will lead to an area
of rainfall overrunning the frontal boundary and lifting across
out area overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. As the
short wave vorticity impulse that helps create this area of
rainfall lifts north of the area, this area of rainfall will
move north as well early in the day. Then the question for the
afternoon becomes how far north the warm front progresses as
the triple point low approaches from the west. Another period of
rainfall is expected during the afternoon and evening, but
depending on how far north the front lifts, there could be a
chance of thunderstorms to develop later in the day for a
portion of the area. The best chance for this to happen would be
for portions of delaware and the eastern shore of maryland, as
well as far southern new jersey. The rest of the area would
likely be stable enough to prevent thunderstorms, and just
receive rain.

By Thursday night, the triple point low will begin moving across the
area, pulling the occluded frontal system across the area as well.

This will lead to continuing scattered showers during the night
Thursday. On Friday, the low will continue to move to our northeast
and offshore of new england. A weak frontal boundary or surface
trough new england is forecast to move across the area during the
day. This could lead to another chance of scattered showers during
the afternoon.

Friday night through most of Saturday is expected to be dry as weak
high pressure quickly moves across the area. However, a warm front
will begin approaching the area from the south late in the day and
into the overnight hours as an area of low pressure lifts into the
great lakes region. As the low continues to lift through the great
lakes region Sunday, the warm front may lift across the area before
a triple point low forms and moves across the area as well. The
exact timing of these features is still a little uncertain, but
Saturday night through Sunday looks like there should be several
periods of showers, and possible thunderstorms if enough instability
builds on Sunday.

The low pressure system that moves across the great lakes over the
weekend is forecast to remain nearly stationary across south-central
canada Monday into Tuesday. This may send a couple of frontal
boundaries across the area Monday and Tuesday, leading to additional
showers or thunderstorms early next week.

Aviation 01z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR lowering CIGS with potential MVFR conds in
showers kacy kmiv late at night while any period of showers
elsewhere should not lower conditions to MVFR. Northeast wind,
may gust 20 kt acy.

Wednesday...VFR CIGS inn the morning and then sct-bkn AOA 4000
ft in the aftn. MVFR ifr conditions possible early in the day,
mainly at kmiv kacy. Northeast wind become southeast in the
afternoon. MAX gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Thursday... Conditions lowering to ifr overnight and
continuing into Thursday as periods of rain affect the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Improvement toVFR possible for
southern areas later in the day.

Thursday night... MVFR to ifr conditions possible with low clouds and
fog drizzle possible.

Friday-Friday night... Improving toVFR during the day and into the
night, scattered showers possible during the daytime. Gusty
northwest winds 20-25 knots.

Saturday... GenerallyVFR. Showers moving into the area later in the
day, which will lead to lowering ceilings.

Saturday night-Sunday... MVFR to ifr conditions possible with periods
of low clouds and rain. Thunderstorms possible Sunday. An
improvement toVFR possible Sunday outside of
showers thunderstorms.

Marine
Sca continues de atlc waters late tonight and now extended
through the day tomorrow.

Sca added for the nj waters, primarily there for hazardous 5 ft
seas. There is a chance the guidance might be a foot too high
but felt I had to issue since our fcst is for 4 to 6 ft.

Rip risk for Wednesday... Low but on the cusp of moderate. The
reason we dont issue the tomorrow forecast sooner... Most of our
rip current fatalities occur between 6pm and 8pm. Therefore, we
want todays forecast available to any potential victims so they
have more information for decision making.

The safest way to swim the surf zone, is in sight of life
guards!!!
outlook...

Wednesday night-Friday... Small craft advisory conditions
possible. Varies between wind and waves criteria each period.

Friday night-Sunday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels.

Tides coastal flooding
Cfw for minor coastal flooding issued for the Wednesday evening
high tide cycle. A cf watch may be needed for the Thursday evening
high tide cycle for monmouth ocean and middlesex counties but
that wont be issued, if at all, until sometime Wednesday.

This afternoons issuance is also appended to a blast email for
em's including an image with a followup Wednesday around or
shortly after 3 pm.

Some of the highest astronomical tides of the year are occuring
late this week. The new moon cycle on Thursday, combined with a
possible prolonged easterly flow, we will probably see some of
our coastal sites exceed minor tidal flooding levels during the
Wednesday and Thursday evening tide cycles. There is also a
small chance that we could reach moderate levels in a few spots.

Climate
Acy is #6 wettest may on record with its 6.07. The record there for
may is 8.80 set in 1948... .Por back to 1874.

Monthly avg temps should end up within .7 degrees of where they
are now, possibly edging on the warmer side of the current departures
as seen in our climate data ending the 22nd.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 6 pm Wednesday to midnight edt
Wednesday night for njz012>014-020>027.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 6 pm Wednesday to midnight edt
Wednesday night for dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 4 pm edt Wednesday for
anz450>453.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 4 pm edt
Wednesday for anz454-455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Po
short term... Drag
long term... Robertson
aviation... Drag robertson po
marine... Drag robertson po
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi44 min 62°F 54°F
44063 - Annapolis 9 mi42 min ENE 9.7 G 12 62°F 1007.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 9 mi62 min ENE 8.9 G 9.9 61°F 65°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 11 mi44 min 62°F 1007.2 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 16 mi42 min E 9.7 G 12 62°F 1008.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi44 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 59°F 65°F1008.1 hPa
FSNM2 24 mi44 min ENE 8 G 8.9 61°F 1007.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi44 min E 6 G 8 62°F 1007.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi152 min Calm 56°F 1008 hPa53°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi50 min 58°F 68°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 27 mi42 min ENE 14 G 18 61°F 1007.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi44 min ESE 8 G 8.9 62°F 69°F1007.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi44 min ENE 13 G 16 58°F 1007 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi44 min Calm G 1.9 61°F 70°F1007 hPa
44061 - Upper Potomac, MD 41 mi74 min E 5.8 G 5.8 58°F 68°F1008.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 43 mi44 min NNE 7 G 9.9 59°F 67°F
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 44 mi42 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 1007.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 46 mi107 min NNE 1.9 61°F 1009 hPa55°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi50 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 68°F1008.4 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi72 minE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F51°F72%1007.4 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD11 mi68 minNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds63°F55°F76%1007.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi61 minE 610.00 miRain59°F54°F83%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmCalmNW5CalmN3N3NE5E6NE3E8NE3E6SE6SE4SE8SE7SE6E3SE5E5E4E7
1 day agoE6E4E3NE3NE4E5E5E4E3CalmCalmE3SE4SW3CalmCalmN3E3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalm
2 days agoSE10E6SE3E5SE5E5E8E7NE5NE3SE5E6SE6SE6E6SE8SE9SE11SE8E9SE8
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:15 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:39 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:30 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:41 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.11.622.22.11.91.61.20.90.60.40.40.60.91.21.41.41.210.70.40.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:27 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:08 AM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:10 PM EDT     0.57 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:46 PM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.40.10.611.21.20.90.5-0-0.5-0.9-1.1-1-0.7-0.30.10.40.60.50.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.