Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:25PM Sunday March 26, 2017 4:49 PM EDT (20:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:15AMMoonset 4:57PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 431 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Rest of this afternoon..E winds 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 431 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will remain stationary just south of the waters through this evening before returning north as a warm front late tonight and Monday. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the cold front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stevensville, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 262026
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
426 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure moving from the mississippi valley into the great
lakes will lift a warm front northward through our region overnight
into Monday morning, followed by a cold frontal passage Tuesday night.

Canadian high pressure will build into the area Wednesday through Friday.

Low pressure and its associated fronts in the ohio valley on Friday will
move through our region on Saturday. A weak area of high pressure is
expected to move into the area from the west on Sunday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Vorticity maximum is moving northeastward through the midwest
this afternoon into the great lakes region, with attendant
surface low in northern illinois. Quasi-stationary front extends
east from the surface low into northwest pa before extending
southeastward into the southern mid-atlantic region, with a
cold air damming regime in place east of the appalachians in the
northeast. Persistent east-northeast flow has brought increased
low-level moisture underneath midlevel subsidence via
downstream ridging relative to the aforementioned vorticity
maximum. As the vorticity maximum moves northeastward tonight,
the backdoor cold front in the southern mid-atlantic should lose
its southward progress and move poleward as a warm front.

However, models often overdo the progress of such fronts,
especially at night, and suspect this bias does exist to some
degree with today's simulations. I generally undercut guidance
temperatures tonight by a few degrees, and this may not be
enough, particularly in the notoriously stubborn southern
poconos, where temperatures have been running under guidance
today by about 3-5 degrees. With that in mind, temperatures will
remain near freezing early this evening at elevations
around/above 1000 feet, so light glazing may continue on
elevated surfaces via a thermal/moisture profile suggestive of
freezing drizzle. No societal impacts have been noted today with
the frozen precipitation, and with temperatures gradually
warming overnight, am not expecting much if any impact going
forward. By late evening/overnight, precipitation is expected to
be all liquid (including after contact with surfaces), and the
forecast features all rain tonight.

High-resolution models have been consistent in showing large-
scale ascent increasing in the northern mid-atlantic downstream
of the great lakes vort MAX late this evening and overnight,
with a batch of rain moving into ny/pa/md/wv this evening. Given
the northeastward motion of the vort max, our CWA will be on the
southern fringe of the strongest ascent, with good agreement
among hi-res guidance that chances for precipitation drop off
considerably south of the mason-dixon line. As such, have the
highest pops in the southern poconos/northern new jersey (65-90
percent), moderate chances (30-60 percent) in the i-95 corridor,
with slight or unmentionable pops generally south of the mason-
dixon line.

One other question mark tonight is the extent/severity of fog.

Currently, thinking that winds will be high enough to preclude
more substantial/widespread fog formation (especially with the
approach of the shortwave trough, which tends to also mitigate
widespread fog). However, fog formation may be more substantial
near and off the coast, where dew points will exceed sea surface
temperatures late tonight. Thicker fog, should it develop over
the ocean, may advect onto the new jersey coast and create local
visibilities below a half mile.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday/
By tomorrow morning, the shortwave trough in the great lakes is
expected to continue northeastward into the st. Lawrence valley,
with the organized large-scale ascent moving into new england
and adjacent southeast canada. Precipitation will likely become
more showery by late morning, with perhaps even hints of blue
sky in portions of DELMARVA during the afternoon. The warm
front will sweep northward well into new england by this point,
and with the warm southerly fetch, temperatures will warm
substantially above today's values. Forecast highs are 15-25
degrees above today's values. Forecast temperatures may be on
the low side if partial sunshine occurs, especially considering
the general negative bias of guidance in warm sector regimes
this winter.

There is some question if localized lift can generate more
convective showers during the afternoon tomorrow. Forecast
soundings are at least marginally supportive of this,
particularly northwest of i-95, where residual colder air at
midlevels combined with a well-mixed boundary layer may permit
development of isolated/scattered showers. Felt compelled to
include a mention of isolated thunder during the afternoon
given the indications of positive buoyancy during peak heating.

This is conditional, however, as transient ridging upstream of
the departing shortwave trough may preclude sufficient lift
necessary for the development of any convection.

Long term /Monday through Sunday/
A split flow regime will continue across the CONUS during this period.

While the northern stream remains displaced to the north, our primary
weather makers will be in the southern stream. A closed low along the
lee of the rockies will gradually open and eject northeastward. Its
associated weak surface reflection and cold front will traverse the
middle atlantic, impacting our sensible weather Monday night into
Tuesday night. A cyclonic flow aloft on Wednesday will gradually give
way to ridging on Thursday. The next southern stream system in the
pipeline will impact our region Friday into Saturday.

With good run to run model consistency in terms of the timing of the
cold frontal passage Tuesday night, the next challenge will be how the
next southern stream system is handled during the Friday and Saturday
period, including the extent of phasing with the northern stream. In
particular, the track of this system and the extent of the cold air to
the north will have implications on any potential p-type issues.

Temperature-wise, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal on Tuesday, then
generally normal to several degrees above normal from Wednesday through
next weekend.

Another round of showers is expected mainly after midnight Monday night
into Tuesday night across the entire region. With the cold frontal passage
Tuesday night, showers should move offshore prior to Wednesday morning. We
do not anticipate any p-type issues during this period. We expect patchy fog
Monday night, which may linger into Tuesday afternoon north of a pa turnpike
to i-195 line. Within the warm sector in advance of the cold front, we expect
sunshine to break out, especially south of the aforementioned line with
temperatures reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. A low-level moist
tongue will also be in place across this area, with dew points well
into the 50s. Models indicate some weak ml cape, along with negative
lifted and showalter indices, within an environment characterized by
poor lapse rates and weak shear. We have included a chance of thunder
in the forecast, and there may be some localized heavier downpours as
well. Given low precipitable water values around one inch, urban and
small stream flooding is not a concern.

In the wake of the cold front, expect a return to fair weather for
Wednesday and Thursday.

Beyond day four, the models have come into better agreement on the
Friday-Saturday system, but there still remains uncertainty regarding
the degree of phasing between the northern and southern stream,
including p-type implications. The gfs, ecmwf, and canadian take low
pressure from the ms valley into the great lakes, with varying degrees
of secondary development over the middle atlantic. The UKMET is an
outlier, maintaining a purely southern stream system, with the primary
low moving through the middle atlantic. In fact, the UKMET represents
yesterdays GFS solution, as it was previously in the former camp. The
forecast brings in chance pops Friday into Saturday. Also, given the
orientation of the surface high, cold air damming to some extent is
likely. Thickness values indicate the cold air is right on our door
step, so p-type could be an issue, especially across the northern half
of our cwa.

Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

General MVFR conditions will gradually lower to ifr this
evening. Light rain will move in between 03z and 06z at
krdg/kabe and by 09z at kttn/kpne/kphl/kilg and continue through
around daybreak. There may be slow improvement to MVFR after
sunrise and evenVFR during the afternoon, but scattered
showers remain possible through the day. A lightning strike or
two may occur with showers during the afternoon tomorrow in se
pa/n nj, but confidence is too low to include in tafs. Chances
of precip are lower at kacy/kmiv. Winds generally east 10-15 kts
through early evening with a trend toward S or ssw late tonight
through the morning hours tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday night... Periods of MVFR/ifr likely in low clouds and fog across
all TAF sites.

Tuesday... MVFR likely Tuesday morning at all TAF sites, with improvement
toVFR by afternoon at all but abe, rdg, and ttn.

Tuesday night... MVFR possible at abe, rdg, and ttn early, otherwise,
vfr.

Wednesday thru Thursday... PredominantlyVFR conditions expected.

Friday...VFR conditions may deteriorate to MVFR with the arrival of
the next weather system.

There is the potential for northwest wind gusts up to around 25 knots
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Marine
Marginal but persistent small craft advisory conditions will
continue through Monday. East to southeast winds 10-20 kts with
higher gusts will occur, especially this evening and again
tomorrow afternoon. Seas will likely remain elevated (above 5
feet) offshore the new jersey coast through at least tomorrow
afternoon. As a result, extended the small craft advisory
through 7 pm Monday.

Another concern is fog tonight and Monday, with dew points
expected to surge to values above sea surface temperatures late
tonight and tomorrow. Visibilities will likely lower to around a
mile at times late tonight and tomorrow and may become less than
a mile locally. At this time, not confident enough in issuing an
advisory, but will monitor closely tonight for potential need
for statements or advisories.

Outlook...

seas may remain elevated into Monday night, and the SCA may need to extended
into this period. A period of northwesterly wind gusts may reach SCA criteria
on Wednesday. Sub-sca conditions are expected on Thursday. The approach of the
next system may lead to a return to SCA conditions by Friday.

Tides/coastal flooding
Onshore flow is expected through Monday morning. Astronomical tides are
also increasing, coincident with the new moon this Monday, march 27.

The estofs remains most aggressive of the guidance suite for the
sunrise Monday high tide along the de and nj oceanfront. Although the
estofs has outperformed the other guidance in recent past events, its
trends for positive departures (surge) appear to be lessening. Both the
sit multi model review and GFS etss are more conservative, and
verifying better as of Sunday afternoon. The wind will also be trending
more parallel (southerly) to the shore by sunrise Monday, so any minor
tidal inundation flood risk remains a low potential with no action at
this time.

Climate
March as a whole for phl, is still on track to average one half
to 1 degree below normal, despite the warmth of ydy through
Wednesday.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Monday for anz450>453.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Franck
aviation... Cms/franck
marine... Cms/franck
tides/coastal flooding... Drag
climate... Drag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi50 min 47°F 46°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 9 mi50 min E 15 G 16 46°F 45°F45°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 11 mi50 min 47°F 1025.2 hPa (-2.2)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi50 min E 7 G 13 48°F 47°F1026.2 hPa (-2.0)
FSNM2 24 mi50 min E 12 G 14 46°F 1025.4 hPa (-2.0)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi50 min E 12 G 14 46°F 1025.8 hPa (-2.1)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi140 min ENE 5.1 47°F 1026 hPa44°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 27 mi40 min ESE 12 G 14 47°F 1025.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi50 min ENE 13 G 16 47°F 47°F1024.8 hPa (-1.7)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi50 min ESE 8.9 G 11 47°F 47°F1025.5 hPa (-2.1)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi50 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 48°F 1025.5 hPa (-2.0)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi56 min E 4.1 G 9.9 49°F 48°F1024.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 43 mi50 min ENE 8.9 G 12 51°F 47°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 46 mi95 min ENE 4.1 46°F 1027 hPa45°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi50 min ENE 9.9 G 14 46°F 46°F1026.3 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi75 minE 45.00 miFog/Mist48°F44°F87%1026.1 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD11 mi1.9 hrsE 109.00 miOvercast48°F44°F86%1026.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi60 minE 9 G 157.00 miOvercast48°F44°F87%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE6SE4S3CalmE12
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1 day agoS9S7S6S5S7S7S8SW8SW9SW7SW7SW6S6S4S5SW6SW6S9S6SE6S8SE8SE7S7
2 days agoSE5S6S5S5SE6S6S7S6S7S9S8S6S10
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:15 AM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:01 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:51 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:31 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.60.91.21.31.31.10.80.60.30.100.10.40.71.11.31.41.31.10.80.60.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:56 AM EDT     0.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:59 AM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:09 PM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:24 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.7-0.400.40.70.80.70.4-0-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.400.40.70.90.80.50.1-0.3-0.7-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.