Monday, June25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:37PM Monday June 25, 2018 3:52 AM EDT (07:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:22PMMoonset 3:00AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 131 Am Edt Mon Jun 25 2018
Overnight..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of showers through the night.
Fri..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 131 Am Edt Mon Jun 25 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross our region tonight. High pressure will build over us Monday into Tuesday. A low pressure system moving across the great lakes will bring a warm front Wednesday followed by a cold front Thursday. High pressure will build behind the front by the end of the week and into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stevensville, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 250716
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
316 am edt Mon jun 25 2018

Synopsis
High pressure located in central ontario early this morning
will build to the southeast. The center of the high is forecast
to pass off the coasts of southern new england and long island
on Tuesday. The air mass is expected to influence our weather
into early Thursday. A weak frontal boundary approaching from
the west is anticipated to arrive in our region on Thursday.

Another area of high pressure should follow for Friday and the
coming weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The pattern today reminds me more of a pattern we would see in
late april, not late june. Behind the cold front that arrived
last evening, high pressure will build south form canada through
the day. As it does so, the pressure gradient will slowly relax
through the day. With the high building in, expect dry
conditions through the day.

There are two uncertainties with our forecast today, the sea
breeze and the depth of the mixing layer. A sea breeze should
develop this afternoon, but due to the relatively strong
northwesterly flow, do not expect the sea breeze to make much
progress inland, possibly staying right along the coast.

The question is the depth of the mixing layer. With this
similar pattern in the spring, models tend to underestimate the
depth of the mixing layer. Consequently, depicted dew point
temperatures are often too high, and depicted temperatures are
often too low. However, since this is an unusual pattern for
this time of year, I don't have as much confidence that these
biases will be true today. Therefore, I stayed close to the
warmest and driest guidance for temperatures and dew points
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
As the pressure gradient continues to decrease, and with the
loss of diurnal mixing, winds will subsequently decrease as
well. This, along with the clearing skies, will set the stage
for prime radiational cooling conditions. With the dry air in
place, minimum temperatures could be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
A mid level ridge is forecast to extend from the southeastern
states up over ontario on Tuesday morning. The feature will
progress eastward with its axis expected to pass overhead on
Tuesday night. Surface high pressure is anticipated to pass off
the coasts of southern new england and long island on Tuesday.

The air mass should bring dry conditions to our region for
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

A mid level trough is expected to extend from the great lakes
down to the middle mississippi river valley on Wednesday
morning. The trough is forecast to move to the east and it
should pass over our region on Thursday. As the trough
approaches, we are anticipating an increasing chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The
potential for showers and thunderstorms will continue into
Thursday as a surface front associated with the mid level
feature arrives in our region. Precipitable water values are
expected to increase to greater than 2 inches, so there is the
potential for some locally heavy rain at that time.

Heat and humidity will be on the increase for Friday, Saturday
and Sunday. A mid level ridge is forecast to build eastward from
the lower ohio river valley on Friday. It is expected to settle
over our region for Saturday and Sunday, limiting the potential
for precipitation even as the heat and humidity levels rise. It
appears as though heat index values will be near or a bit above
100 on Saturday and Sunday.

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions are expected with few, if any clouds.

Winds, westerly early this morning will slowly shift to
northwesterly this morning. Gusts to 20 kt are possible this
afternoon. The one caveat is that a sea breeze is expected to
develop this afternoon. However, due to the relatively strong
northwesterly flow, do not expect this sea breeze to reach even
acy. Moderate confidence on the sea breeze, high confidence on
all other aspects of the forecast.

Tonight...VFR conditions will continue. Winds will slowly shift
from northwesterly to northeasterly, but wind speeds after
sunset should be less than 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Tuesday night... MainlyVFR. East wind less than 10
knots becoming southeast.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR. A chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Southeast wind around 10 knots becoming south.

Wednesday night... Showers and thunderstorms are likely.

Conditions are expected to lower to MVFR and perhaps to ifr at
times. South wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday... Conditions varying from MVFR toVFR with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night and Friday... Late night and early morning
visibility restrictions are possible, otherwise mainlyVFR. West
wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory criteria. However, northwesterly gusts near 20 kt will
be possible, especially this morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday evening... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Late Wednesday night through Thursday evening... Wave heights on
our ocean waters may build around 5 feet due to a persistent
southerly wind.

Late Thursday night and Friday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Rip currents...

the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is
forecast to be low today thanks to offshore winds (with the
exception of a weak sea breeze for a period this afternoon) and
wave heights 2 ft or less.

The wind is forecast to become onshore around 10 mph on
Tuesday. However, a medium period swell should keep the risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents at low for
Tuesday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Iovino
aviation... Iovino johnson
marine... Iovino johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi53 min 74°F 74°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 9 mi53 min W 7 G 7 73°F 75°F1013.6 hPa (+0.0)72°F
44063 - Annapolis 9 mi43 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 1013 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 11 mi59 min 73°F 1012.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi53 min NW 5.1 G 7 74°F 77°F1013 hPa (+0.0)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi53 min WNW 6 G 7 72°F 1012.6 hPa (+0.0)
FSNM2 24 mi53 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 73°F 1012.6 hPa (-0.0)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi143 min W 1 63°F 1013 hPa62°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi53 min 73°F 81°F1013.7 hPa (-0.3)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 27 mi43 min WNW 7.8 G 12 76°F 1013.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi59 min NW 4.1 G 7 73°F 76°F1012.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi53 min WNW 8.9 G 12 76°F 1013.2 hPa (-0.4)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi53 min W 2.9 G 2.9 73°F 76°F1013.4 hPa (+0.3)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 43 mi53 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 79°F1012.6 hPa (-0.4)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 46 mi143 min Calm 68°F 1012 hPa68°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi53 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 77°F1012.6 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi78 minW 310.00 miFair73°F69°F89%1012.9 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD11 mi59 minNNW 310.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1012.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair72°F69°F92%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW3S4SW4SW3W5W5S6SW4SW3SW6S8NW9
G14
W6W4CalmW3W5W3NW5
1 day agoCalmSE3CalmCalmNE3E3E3CalmCalmNW3NW4CalmNW6N7N6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE4E4E7E9E7E7E8E12
G15
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G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:02 AM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:27 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:55 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:01 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.31.722.121.81.61.310.70.60.60.811.21.31.210.80.60.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:49 AM EDT     1.17 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.40.81.11.210.70.2-0.3-0.7-1-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.40.40.30-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.