Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:18PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 9:19 PM EDT (01:19 UTC) Moonrise 5:59PMMoonset 6:12AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 738 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Tonight..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Thu..E winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then a chance of rain through the night.
ANZ500 738 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure developing over the carolina coast will move northward near or over the waters Thursday. A cold front approaching from the great lakes will cross the region Friday. High pressure will follow for the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday into Saturday, and gales are possible Friday into Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stevensville, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210106
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
906 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will shift northeast of the region tonight. A
cold front will approach from the west late tonight and
Thursday. This front will combine with a developing coastal low
to bring rain to the region on Thursday. Another cold front will
move through on Friday. Gusty northwest winds and dry weather
move in behind that front for Friday night and Saturday.

Building high pressure will bring tranquil weather Saturday
night and Sunday. By Monday, a cold front moving in from the
north will bring a renewed shower threat. High pressure and
drier weather may return for the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Major story will be the coastal storm that will impact the area
beginning later tonight and continuing through Thursday. At this
time, the low continues to deepen off the sc coast, a few
millibars deeper than the 12z models were showing. Light rain
has already spread northward into DELMARVA near kged.

As we head through the overnight, shortwave energy will drop southward
helping deepen an upper level trough over the eastern conus. This
will result in a surface low beginning to take shape over eastern
north carolina by 12z Thursday. Meanwhile, rain ahead of this system
will spread north enveloping the entire CWA by morning. The one area
of concern though for wintery precip will be the southern poconos
where the precip is likely to begin as a bit of wet snow or a rain
snow mix since low level temps will be near freezing. Any accumulation
though will be a half inch or less, if that.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Main story will continue to be strengthening coastal low as it
moves north. Forecast models continue to trend wetter with this
system now indicating a good potential for 1-2+ inches of
rainfall to occur over much of eastern pa into northern nj.

There will be rises on the rivers but since conditions have been
dry we don't think this will cause widespread hydro issues... At
least on the mainstem rivers. However the smaller creeks and
streams will have to be watched as some of these could overspill
their banks, especially in areas that see over 1.5 inches of
rain. Urban and poor drainage type flooding could also become an
issue in spots though it doesn't appear rainfall rates will be
enough for flash flooding. In terms of details, surface low will
continue to deepen through tomorrow as it moves northward from
virginia toward the DELMARVA by late day. Expect an area wide
all day type rainfall event for the area with the heaviest
rainfall rates looking to be over central and eastern pa and
eventually northern nj. As mentioned in the near term section,
precip is likely to begin as a rain snow mix over portions of
the southern poconos but this should change to all rain by mid
morning. Highs Thursday range from the upper 30s low 40s over
the southern poconos and NW nj to the low to mid 50s over
southern nj and the delmarva.

Thursday night... Low pressure continues to deepen as it moves
n NE right over nj then onward to southern new england. Rain
will continue at least into the early evening before tapering
off SW to NE as the system departs. In fact as cooler air is
wrapped in behind the system the rain is likely to end as a bit
of wet snow over the poconos with some minor accumulation
possible.

Heading into Friday, conditions should start mainly dry as the
still deepening low moves northeast through new england. Winds
will be gusty though as the pressure gradient increases behind
the departing system. NW winds gusting at least 20 to 30 mph can
be expected by the afternoon. Also during the afternoon, as the
main shortwave associated with the upper level low dives S e
through the area this will spark some showers returning across
the area. Highs will range from around 40 over the southern
poconos to the low to mid 50s over SE pa into central and
southern nj.

The big concern for stronger winds looks to be Friday night
into Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens across the area
in the wake of a secondary cold front that crosses the area
Friday evening. Expecting peak gusts of at least 30 to 40 mph
but have some concerns gusts of 40 to 50 mph could be realized
for a time Friday night immediately following the passage of the
front as cold advection aids in mix down potential. However
timing with the diurnal cycle will be a mitigating factor.

Cooler temperatures will be the other story with low temps
Friday night generally in the 20s to low 30s and highs Saturday
mainly in the 30s and 40s except around 50 over the delmarva.

Combined with the wind, this will result in wind chills in the
20s and 30s so a good 10 degrees colder than the actual temps.

Otherwise, other than a few lingering snow showers over the
southern poconos area should be precip free under variable cloud
cover.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
The storm system will move into the canadian maritimes Saturday
night and out to sea on Sunday as high pressure settles into
the southeast. A southwesterly return flow on Sunday will result
in MAX temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

Low pressure passing north of the area will drag a cold front
through the region early in the new week. Showers possible
Monday ending as a mix of rain snow showers on Tuesday. Fair and
cool weather for Wednesday.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Conditions deteriorate from south to north.

InitiallyVFR but ceilings lower to MVFR in the early to middle
part of the night and probably ifr by late night especially
near and south of phl. Rain, initially light, starts to break
out around 4-6z. Steadier, moderate rain fills in towards the
end of the night. Winds southeasterly trending towards easterly
but staying on the light side, around 5 kt.

Thursday... Rain, moderate to heavy at times, is likely for most
of the day. Brought ceilings down to around 1000 ft, but it is
possible they could be a little lower at times tomorrow morning.

Winds mainly out of the east and increasing to around 10 kt,
with gusts at acy up to 25 kt and around 20 kt at miv and ilg.

Llws also a bit of a concern especially at southern and eastern
terminals, where stronger southeasterly flow aloft is expected.

Not especially confident on timing of higher winds aloft but did
add llws to the acy TAF to indicate the potential.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MVFR ifr initially in rain and low clouds,
improving to mostly MVFR later in the night near and south of
phl. Winds variable at around 5 kt through midnight, then
becoming NW at 5 to 10 kt.

Friday... Lingering MVFR conditions early, improving to mainly
vfr but patchy areas of MVFR lingering with scattered showers
developing. NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the
afternoon.

Friday night-Saturday... VFR. NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts
to 35 kt.

Saturday night-Sunday... VFR. NW winds diminish to 5 to 10 kt
and gradually shift to westerly on Sunday, possibly
southwesterly by Sunday afternoon.

Sunday night-Monday... VFR expected Sunday night, but ceiling
and visibility reductions possible by Monday with rain showers.

Winds light from the west-southwest. Low confidence on Monday.

Marine
Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels tonight,
although winds and waves begin to increase later tonight north
of a developing low pressure system well to the south.

Thursday... Sca. East winds increase to 15-25 kt with 25-30 kt.

Seas build to 4-7 ft. Vsby restrictions in rain fog.

Outlook...

Thursday night-Friday... Small craft advisory conditions likely
with gale force winds possible late Friday.

Friday night-Saturday... Nw winds 25-30 kt with 35-40 kt gusts.

Winds may start to diminish Saturday afternoon and especially
into the evening, possibly to SCA levels. Seas should run
generally 4 to 6 ft.

Saturday night-Monday... Diminishing winds with a gradual shift
from northwesterly to westerly. SCA conditions should linger for
the first half of Saturday night before dropping to sub-sca.

Seas diminishing to 2 to 4 ft by the latter half of Saturday
night and into Sunday and Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
We have issued a coastal flood advisory to cover the Thursday
evening Thursday night high tide for the coastal counties of new
jersey and delaware, and the counties along delaware bay and
the far lower delaware river below the commodore barry bridge.

Developing low pressure will move up the east coast overnight
and on Thursday. The low will pass over our region on Thursday
night before lifting up into eastern canada. The system will
maintain an onshore flow along the coasts of delaware and new
jersey overnight and on Thursday. Tidal departures will continue
to increase.

While it is possible that there will be spotty minor flooding
with the Thursday morning high tide, our main concern is with
the Thursday evening Thursday night high tide.

Tidal departures of +0.8 to +0.9 feet would begin to create
minor flooding on Thursday evening along the coasts of new
jersey and delaware, along delaware bay and on the far lower
delaware river. Departures of greater than +1.0 foot would
produce some noticeable impacts on the coastal tidal communities
in our region, with some roadway flooding. At this time, we are
fairly confident that departures will equal or exceed +1.0 foot
in most of the advisory area. Also, rainfall could worsen any
roadway and poor drainage area flooding that occurs.

Only spotty minor flooding is anticipated for the tidal
delaware river from the commodore barry bridge upstream. No
flooding is expected on the upper eastern shore of chesapeake
bay.

Once the low moves away to our northeast, an offshore wind will
develop and the potential for minor coastal flooding will
diminish. While some residual spotty minor flooding is possible
along the northern part of the new jersey coast with Friday
morning's high tide, there should be no additional issues after
that.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 7 pm Thursday to 1 am edt Friday
for njz012>014-020>027.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm Thursday to 2 am edt Friday
for njz016.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 7 pm Thursday to 1 am edt Friday
for dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm Thursday to 2 am edt Friday
for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am Thursday to 6 am edt Friday for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 6 pm edt Thursday for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Fitzsimmons po
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Franklin
aviation... O'brien o'hara
marine... Fitzsimmons franklin po
tides coastal flooding... Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi50 min 48°F 35°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 9 mi20 min E 14 G 16 47°F 45°F1024.5 hPa (-0.6)36°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 11 mi50 min 47°F 1023.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi50 min ESE 6 G 8 46°F 48°F1024.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi50 min ESE 15 G 17 47°F 1023.9 hPa
FSNM2 24 mi50 min ESE 16 G 18 46°F 1023.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi110 min E 4.1 49°F 1024 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi50 min 47°F 49°F1024.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi50 min SSE 5.1 G 11 48°F 46°F1023.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi50 min SSE 5.1 G 11 47°F 1024.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi50 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 51°F 51°F1023.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 43 mi50 min ESE 9.9 G 11 48°F 46°F1023.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 46 mi110 min E 4.1 44°F 1025 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi50 min SE 7 G 12 46°F 48°F1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi40 minESE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F35°F66%1024 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD11 mi26 minESE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F37°F61%1024.1 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi90 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F33°F58%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE6SE8S4SE3CalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmNW4S5S4NW5NW6W6NW5NW5N5NE3E6SE9
1 day agoS3SW4CalmW8NW5N6N8N7N6N5N5N3NE5NE5NW7NW6NW7W3NE4E4S4S3CalmCalm
2 days agoE3NE3NE4E3CalmE4E3CalmCalmE6E5E8E7NE3E4W5W5NW4N4NW4W4CalmW3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
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Wed -- 04:54 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:46 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:40 PM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.611.31.41.310.70.30-0.2-0.2-0.10.30.81.21.41.51.41.10.80.50.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:21 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:22 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:27 AM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:39 PM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 11:54 PM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.6-0.20.30.70.90.80.60.2-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.70.910.80.4-0.1-0.6-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.