Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 12:24 AM   Moonset 9:21 AM

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FXUS63 KEAX 290455 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1155 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon with the chance for some to be strong to severe.

- Quiet weather expected Monday with severe chances returning on Tuesday.

- Additional rounds of thunderstorms expected through next week as pattern becomes more unsettled.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over South Dakota/Nebraska border. There is a finger of the jet on the east side of the trough axis. This trough is expected to continue to slowly track northeast while becoming more negatively tilted. At the lower levels, there is a surface cold front to the west, we will continue to see consistent moisture transport from the Gulf. This steady flow of moisture in combination with the lift supplied by the cold front is the reason for scattered showers to the west. We expect these showers to linger for most of the afternoon. If showers dissipate, there will still be ample moisture for significant cloud cover. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening with ample instability and shear out ahead of this system. Decent shear is still present with 40-50 knots of bulk shear which will help with storm organization. One of the main determining factors of convective development this afternoon will be the amount of instability present. CAPE values are roughly around 800-1200 J/kg which is still enough for convective development. However, these values are significantly less than yesterday's which suggest the atmosphere's inability to recover from recent storms. In addition, the increased cloud coverage will limit the environment's ability to destabilize. Strong to severe storms this afternoon are expected to be scattered.

For the start of the work week, cooler, drier air is expected to push through with the passage of the surface cold front. This will give is a short break from dealing with severe weather. Highs are expected to reach the low 70s with low temperatures in the 50s. A surface ridge will pass through the area on the back side of the cold front and will move to the southeast by late Monday night.

Tuesday, another trough will move through the area to the northwest of the area over the Northern Plains. With the high to the southeast, the pressure gradient is expected to strengthen allowing for moisture transport from the Gulf to set up with southerly winds.
As a result, high temperatures are expected to reach the low 80s with dew point temperatures reaching the low 60s. CAPE values of 2,000-2,500 J/kg suggests instability will have a chance to build through the day. Shear will be present with 40-45 knots of bulk shear which will help with storm organization. We will continue to monitor this system as it continues to advance.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist through the work week as troughing deepens over the western CONUS and slowly moves eastward.
Steady southerly winds will push tons of warm, moist air into the area keeping the lower level thermodynamic profiles favorable for showers and thunderstorms through the week. It's not until the weekend when precipitation chances diminish as a cooler, drier air mass moves in for the start of the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A cold front moved through the terminals in the last 1-2 hours.
This will lead to light westerly winds and drier air moving into eastern KS and western MO, which will result in VFR conditions through the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,