Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:03PM Thursday November 23, 2017 9:56 PM CST (03:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 9:29PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 232250
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
450 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017

Aviation update...

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 145 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017
light and variable winds has not deterred the warming temperatures
this afternoon. Latest high resolution guidance is trending slightly
warmer than previous forecast, leading to an update of middle to
upper 60s. Would not be surprised if concordia comes close to their
record high of 71 degrees today with anticipated high of 69 degrees.

For these reasons and latest MOS guidance coming in for tomorrow,
believe our previous forecast may have been too cool for
temperatures. Frontal boundary and cooler airmass behind is showing
signs of slowing as it enters north central kansas during the mid to
late afternoon. Southerly winds ahead of it increase shortly after
sunrise between 15 and 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible. In
addition, stronger mixing aloft between the nam, gfs, and wrf
ensembles is indicative of h85 temps around 15 to 18c reaching the
sfc. MOS guidance and blended models are pretty consistent in the
compressional warming ahead the boundary, resulting in low to middle
70s for highs. This would be near or at the record. Please see
climate information section below. The combination of the strong,
shifting winds and lower rh values will also create very high fire
danger conditions in the afternoon. Please see fire weather
discussion for additional details.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 145 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017
the weekend and much of next week will feature quiet, dry, and
warm weather with large scale upper level ridging dominating the
weather pattern from Friday into Monday. A sharp shortwave trough
will push eastward early in the week and will drag a surface
boundary through on Monday night into Tuesday. Ample mixing and a
tight pressure gradient will result in a blustery day on Monday
and raised winds above the blended guidance to account for this
scenario. GFS soundings show winds at the top of the mixed layer
pushing 40 to 50 kts, so wind advisory conditions are certainly
not out of the question. This mixing will tap into a +17 to +20 c
h850 warm nose, boosting temps to near record or record highs.

Pushed highs to the warm end of the model blend spectrum as a
result. Increasing theta-e advection and lift along the boundary
may spawn some light precip on the backside of the system late
Tuesday into Wednesday in SE kansas, but this looks to be the
only chance of precip in the next seven days.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 450 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017
vfr conditions should prevail with limited moisture in place and
only some mid and high clouds passing overhead. FROPA late in the
period also looks dry with no appreciable moisture advection ahead
of the boundary. NAM and rap forecast soundings do show a
strengthening low level jet on the order of 35 to 40 kt with a
steep nocturnal inversion developing late in the evening.

Therefore will include a mention of llws through at least mid
morning.

Fire weather
Issued at 145 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017
strong south winds initiate shortly after sunrise, particularly
strongest along and south of interstate 70 at 15 to 20 mph with
gusts near 30 mph. With the exception of the nam, guidance is fairly
consistent with the wind shift bisecting northeast kansas from
southwest to northeast by mid to late afternoon. Winds may briefly
weaken along the boundary, otherwise they increase from the north at
15 to 20 mph in north central kansas before weakening around sunset.

Minimum rh values lower to around 30 percent given the current
dewpoints and temperatures forecast, translating to very high fire
danger conditions across much of northeast kansas.

Climate
Issued at 145 pm cst Thu nov 23 2017
record highs on Friday
topeka: 76 degrees set back in 1990 (forecast: 76)
concordia: 73 degrees set back in 1990 and 2011 (forecast: 73)
--------------------------------------------------------------
record highs on Monday
topeka: 71 degrees set back in 1998 (forecast: 70)
concordia: 69 degrees set back in 1933 (forecast: 70)

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Happy thanksgiving!
short term... Prieto
long term... Skow
aviation... Wolters
fire weather... Prieto
climate... Prieto skow


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi64 minE 510.00 miFair47°F37°F69%1013.3 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi63 minS 310.00 miFair52°F37°F59%1012.4 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi63 minS 810.00 miFair55°F37°F51%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7S5S8SE4SE5CalmS3SE4CalmCalmCalmW6SW43CalmCalmCalmCalmS3E4SE5E5E4E5
1 day agoNW7NW9NW5W4W6NW5NW4CalmW5CalmCalmCalm3S4CalmCalm5S7S6SE6SE6E4SE3S3
2 days ago6S8SW6SW7S6SW4SW4S4W3NW8NW8
G20
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NW17NW20
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NW13NW9NW8NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.