Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:38PM Friday March 24, 2017 2:59 AM CDT (07:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:17AMMoonset 3:07PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 240448
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
1148 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Aviation update...

Update
Issued at 630 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017
i'm inclined to keep the wind advisory going through the night
even though current obs show winds below advisory criteria. Models
continue to show a strong pressure gradient remaining over the
forecast area as a low level jet strengthens to near 70kt. With
forecast soundings showing a very weak inversion, if one at all,
am concerned that the momentum of those stronger winds could still
transfer lower with some potential for stronger wind gusts
overnight.

Will also address the red flag warning this evening. Relative
humidity values are generally 40 percent or better and should
gradually recover with the loss of day time heating. So while
winds will remain strong through the night, conditions for extreme
fire danger may not be as favorable. Will touch base with the
land management partners for their input as well.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 314 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017
a red flag warning and a wind advisory remain in effect for the
entire outlook area through the evening. Maintain the wind advisory
though the overnight hours.

As of Thursday afternoon a mid-level trough was located across the
lee of the rockies. A surface low was also developing in eastern
colorado. In response to the deepening surface low, a tight pressure
gradient has setup across the cwa, resulting in sustained southerly
winds at 25-35 mph with gusts 40+ mph. Expect winds to remain gusty
overnight as the gradient continues to tighten along with a strong
llj. Forecast soundings suggest a LLJ magnitude of 55-65 knots
overnight. With a weak surface inversion and the strong surface
winds, I expect a fraction of the LLJ to mix to the surface during
the overnight. We then turn our attention to precipitation chances.

The first chance arrives Friday morning. Have trended pops down
during the morning hours as the main trough will remain to the west
along with substantial mid-level dry air. The main system will eject
overhead during the mid to late afternoon and evening hours. As it
does, expect scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the outlook area. A few storms may become strong to
severe as around 500 to 1000 j/kg of surface based CAPE and 40 to 50
knots of bulk shear are expected ahead of the dryline. With the
shear profile being predominately in the straight line fashion, i
would expect the primary hazards to be hail and wind, although a
tornado cannot be ruled out.

Not only are thunderstorms possible on Friday but fire weather
concerns continue to areas west of the dryline. Most guidance
continues to suggest dew points in the lower 40s although the 12z
gfs suggests much drier air with dews in the lower 30s. For now, the
forecast is status quo with minimum rh values in the lower 30s
Friday afternoon. With winds gusting to 25-30 mph, high to very high
fire danger is expected.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 314 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017
by the morning hours Saturday, the upper low is centered over
southwest mo with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms wrapping
around the backside. Gusty northerly winds around 20 mph sustained
linger through the afternoon, before the system gradually shifts
east and the pressure gradient wanes. Subsidence diminishes cloud
cover Saturday evening before the next positively tilted upper
trough lifts over the central plains late Sunday afternoon and
evening. The trough axis position remains fairly consistent between
guidance over northeast ks, bringing higher confidence in general,
non-severe thunderstorms. QPF amounts are low (below half of an
inch) despite the highest pops added during this period. In terms of
temps, if cloud cover holds off until the late afternoon period,
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are likely.

Models remain pretty consistent in a temporary ridge aloft Monday
through Wednesday as a strong upper trough deepens over the western
conus. This wave slowly ejects over the southern plains late
Wednesday into Thursday bringing the next chance for rain to the
cwa. This far out, the track is the main uncertainty while both the
gfs and ECMWF are similar on timing. Overall trend of the southerly
track would place northeast kansas north of the low and therefore
more likely to see rainfall as opposed to stronger storms. Lowered
likely pops given to modest chance pops in the extended as a result.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday)
issued at 1148 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017
not much change to the going forecast. As long as the surface
winds remain gusty, llws should be unlikely. And winds are likely
to remain gusty with forecast soundings showing no low level
inversion with a well mixed boundary layer with a 70kt low level
jet. Models keep the moisture and instability axis over eastern ks
as the best dynamics lift across the state Friday afternoon. The
majority of guidance develops the main area of convection just
east of the area, but as lapse rates steepen scattered convection
is progged by the convective allowing solutions. So will maintain
a vcts at all the terminals for the late afternoon and through the
evening. Models suggest there could be some restrictive CIGS move
in on the back side of the surface low. This appears to be towards
the end of the forecast period, so will leave it to the next
forecast to focus on the potential for lower CIGS heading into
Saturday morning.

Top watches/warnings/advisories
Wind advisory until 5 am cdt Friday for ksz008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

Update... Wolters
short term... Baerg
long term... Prieto
aviation... Wolters


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi68 minS 99.00 miFair70°F51°F51%1007.9 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi67 minSSW 510.00 miFair69°F52°F55%1008.4 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi67 minSSW 87.00 miFair70°F51°F51%1008.7 hPa

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E11E10SE10SE15SE12SE16
G21
SE20SE16
G26
SE21
G27
SE28
G33
SE22
G32
S20
G30
SE23
G29
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G31
SE13SE15SE17
G24
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G24
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1 day agoNE7NE8NE7NE6NE4E12NE12E11E11E8E12
G17
E14
G19
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G21
E15E12E12E15E15
G23
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G19
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2 days agoNE5N10NE7NE9NE8N8N13NE11N14
G17
N20
G27
NE13
G24
NE17
G23
NE16NE15
G21
NE14
G22
N13N11NE8NE9
G18
NE10NE9
G19
NE9NE7NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.