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FXUS63 KTOP 022326 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 626 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief period of dry weather for Friday is expected before a front brings thunderstorm chances back Friday night and Saturday AM. These could be strong to severe with small hail and damaging winds being the main concerns.

- A few systems move across the Plains this weekend, continuing chances for rain and thunderstorms, mainly south of I-70.

- Large trough moves in Monday and Tuesday bringing another chance for strong to severe storms across the area.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

This morning and early afternoon has seen a frontal boundary move across the area, giving way to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This boundary is currently situated just southeast of our area and continuing its way southeast. Over the past hour, scattered elevated thunderstorms have developed in southeastern KS on the northern periphery of a MCV that is moving across northeastern Oklahoma. With pockets of solar insolation ahead of the frontal boundary, MUCAPE has been able to build to around 1000 J/kg (via SPC mesoanalysist)
with RAP 0-6 km shear approaching 30-35kts. With the enhanced shear from the MCV and increasing marginal levels of buoyancy, cannot rule a strong updraft yielding some pea to nickel-sized hail this afternoon for areas south of I-35. Instability should quickly push east as the frontal boundary continues east, so do not expect a prolonged period of storms in this area.

Precipitation chances for far eastern Kansas fizzle out by this evening at the latest with surface ridging building into the area. A much anticipated dry and sunny day comes Friday with temperatures warming into the mid-70s by the afternoon. These conditions will not last long as a shortwave pushing across the north Plains slides a frontal boundary through Kansas Friday evening and overnight into Saturday morning. A brief window of moisture advection should take place across central Kansas as the low-level ridge axis moves east of the area Friday morning. This should be enough to increase instabilities ahead of the boundary to the 1000-1500 J/kg range.
With deep shear maximized closer to the upper-level jet in Nebraska, north-central and far northeastern Kansas seem like the areas where shear and instability align for strong to severe storms along the front to become possible. Steep lapse rates could also help to make up for the lack of instability helping to pose a threat for damaging winds and quarter-sized hail. As the boundary moves further into eastern Kansas, shear should decrease as the main upper low pushes into the Great Lakes region. This will likely weaken convection as cool-pool circulation becomes unbalanced. Residual precipitation behind the system will move out by Saturday afternoon, ushering in another brief dry period into Sunday morning.

A shortwave moving in from southwestern TX ejects into Oklahoma and southern Kansas Sunday afternoon that increases rain and elevated thunderstorm chances into Sunday evening. The main QPF axis stays closer to the surface low that deepens across central Oklahoma, but moisture advection north of the warm front in northern OK and southern KS could bring rain and storm chances into areas south of I- 70 (40-60%). Guidance keeps better instability and shear south of our area so not expecting too much in the way of severe weather with this wave.

The next widespread chance for strong to severe thunderstorms ushers in with a long wave trough axis digging out of the 4-corners region Monday into Tuesday AM. A large warm sector will develop across much of the central Plains with the set-up likely to produce severe weather across the Plains. There still are some discrepancies with positioning of the main upper-low and will play a role in determining where better low-level dynamics set up. Regardless, keep an eye on the forecast in the coming days as this system appears to have the ingredients for severe weather to occur across the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday AM.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions have returned with gradual clearing expected this evening and overnight. Some light radar returns can be seen near and northeast of Topeka sites, but with no evidence of lightning nearby and instability moving southeast, have decided to remove the remaining VCTS and continue to monitor. Otherwise, light NNE winds tonight eventually turn back to the southeast and increase above 10 kt Friday afternoon as high clouds move back in.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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