Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:39PM Saturday May 27, 2017 6:55 AM CDT (11:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:59AMMoonset 9:46PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 270820
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area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
320 am cdt Sat may 27 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 259 am cdt Sat may 27 2017
confidence in specifics for today and tonight is fairly low, but
potential for high-end severe weather is in place. Convection
continues to roll east across northwest kansas early this morning in
area of good elevated CAPE and moderate low level jet. Other
convection was over southwest missouri north of a warm front.

Dewpoints south of this front in the lower 70s with southerly flow
over it. Locally, weak near-surface winds and clear skies until
recently allowing for some slightly reduced visibilities, but
increasing cloud should keep widespread fog in check.

Am leaning toward the linear system to the west to slowly decrease
in intensity with time as moisture convergence and available
moisture decrease, with many models very similar in an area of much
lower 850mb dewpoints moving north through the eastern half of the
state in the 10-14z window. Will still likely have at least some
remnant convection through the early morning hours in at least
northern areas with some signals of an MCV developing just south of
the nebraska border at 8z, with some potential for a weak surface
low to push northeast into the area. Dewpoints could easily reach
the upper 60s as 850mb dewpoints then rise quickly with 500-700mb
lapse rates near 9 c km to produce extreme ml CAPE with little cin.

Specifics of where the surface low end up will play a large role in
low-level shear, but wsw 500mb winds around 40kts will supply enough
shear for supercells. Very large hail will be the most apparent
threat, with severe winds and tornadoes also possible, mainly in
southern and eastern areas. Timing and location of overall severe
weather threat very hard to nail down, but could see high surface-
based instability develop by early afternoon. Several hours of at
least east central kansas being in the warm sector and multiple
sources of weak forcing brings the potential for a few rounds of
storms for locally heavy precip possibilities as well. Upper trough
swings into the area late tonight, which should bring cyclogenesis
well to the east for convection to end by early Sunday morning.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 259 am cdt Sat may 27 2017
the latter two thirds of the holiday weekend shape up rather well
as northwesterly flow aloft moves in with surface high pressure
moving southward into the central plains. Highs in the upper 70s
Sunday become upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. Overnight lows in
the 50s with northwest winds through the period.

Next chance for rain holding off until late Monday night into
early Tuesday and relegated to our far southern and western
counties where the front resides. Highs again on Tuesday and
Wednesday rise toward 80. Upper pattern starts to shift on
Wednesday from northwesterly to zonal, then the influence of the
trof over the western states into the rockies starts to shift
eastward as well. This increases rain chances Thursday into Friday
and would likely cool highs a few degrees. Strength of these
storms is a bit far out, but enough CAPE and shear progged for
strong to severe at times late next week. Watch for updates.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday)
issued at 1144 pm cdt Fri may 26 2017
the models have continued to show some variability in the
evolution of storms through the day Saturday. In particular the
hrrr has backed off on bringing a linear MCS through the area
early in the day. However the convective allowing models don't
have the greatest handle on the current convection in western ks.

With models showing a southerly low level jet and isentropic lift
across central ks confirmed by area profiler data, am inclined to
expect storms to hold together and enter the forecast area by mid
morning, even with the latest hrrr casting some doubt. However
uncertainty precludes a more specific forecast for timing in the
terminals. So I still have a vcts for the most likely window.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... 65
long term... 67
aviation... Wolters


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi64 minESE 57.00 miFair64°F64°F100%1008.7 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi63 minN 07.00 miFair64°F64°F100%1008.1 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi63 minESE 46.00 miFog/Mist64°F62°F93%1008 hPa

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmCalmNW6N6N53N76N8NW5NE4NE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5
1 day agoCalmE6S8SE15SE14
G19
S11SE14
G18
SE14SE13
G25
SE15
G23
SE17SE19
G24
SE18
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SE10E7E6NE6E6E5CalmW7
G19
SE11CalmNW7
2 days agoW8W7NW14NW15NW14NW13
G21
NW15NW11
G20
N11N8NW9NW10N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.