Sunday, August20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:09PM Sunday August 20, 2017 8:00 PM CDT (01:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:18AMMoonset 6:34PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug

Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 202343
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
643 pm cdt Sun aug 20 2017

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 324 pm cdt Sun aug 20 2017
as of 20z Sunday afternoon a cluster of LLJ driven showers and
thunderstorms across northern mo. An ofb has pushed south and west
of the storms and extends from near hiawatha southeastward
towards the kansas city metro. The lack of any agitated CU field
along the boundary and surface based inhibition ~100 j kg suggests
convection is unlikely. With the sultry bl in place, heat
indicies have risen into the low 100s across much of the area. A
stationary surface boundary was positioned from southwestern ne
into northwestern ia. A subtle shortwave coupled with a 30-40kt
llj should contribute to thunderstorm development well after
midnight in central and eastern ne. Steering vectors towards the
ese should keep activity north and east of the outlook area.

Well the day that many have been anticipating has nearly
arrived... Total solar eclipse day!! Unfortunately, model guidance
continues to point towards an expansive cirrus shield across much
the area. A cutoff upper trough off the ca coast continues to usher
baja moisture into the four corners region. As stated previously,
all guidance ejects a shortwave across the central plains, greatly
increasing cloud cover Monday afternoon. That being said, very
subtle differences in timing could play a huge role in the
visibility of the eclipse. There's basically two fronts in regards
to the cloud cover forecast... The first is the GFS ec... These 2
models eject the shortwave slightly faster, resulting in 300-500mb
rh values near 100 percent (mostly cloudy skies) by 18z area wide.

The second front is the NAM canadian... These 2 models are slightly
slower with their progression, with ultimately the same result but
between 18 and 21z rather than by 18z. As if cloud cover wasn't
enough of a concern, scattered showers are possible area wide during
the late morning and early afternoon hours. Isentropic lift near
310k will overspread the area Monday morning and continue through
the afternoon. Here's to hoping the cloud cover and rain showers
hold off until mid afternoon!!
later that afternoon the threat of for strong to severe
thunderstorms increase along the aforementioned cold front and upper
level trough. By late tomorrow afternoon isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop across north central ks and
southern ne. Steep mid level lapse rates (~6-7 c km) will contribute
to MLCAPE near 3000 j kg. Sufficient deep layer shear near 30 knots
suggests organized convection. Large hail and damaging winds the
primary concerns. Upscale growth into an MCS looks to take shape
after 00z. High temperatures will top out near 90 Monday afternoon.

With the moist bl remaining in place, another day of heat indicies
near 100 is expected. Stay safe!

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 324 pm cdt Sun aug 20 2017
for Monday night and Tuesday, models are in good agreement for
showers and thunderstorms to overspread the area with decent
vorticity advection and frontogenesis moving across the forecast
area. Initially there could be some severe weather with the
storms as models prog deep layer shear of 30 to 40 kt with
reasonable instability. But the bigger concern will be for very
heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values are forecast to
increase to between 2 and 2.5 inches Monday evening which is near
or above the climatological MAX for this time of year.

Additionally models suggest that mid level flow may parallel the
surface boundary for a period of time Monday night before the
front finally pushes through Tuesday morning. With some of the
ensemble plumes showing rainfall amounts ranging between 1 and 3
inches Monday night, felt like there is a strong enough signal for
flash flooding and have issued a flash flood watch as a result.

Confidence in heavy rainfall is high. The main uncertainty is
where the heaviest rainfall axis may set up and how long the
rainfall may stay over a single location. If it turns out the
front is much more progressive and moves right through, the
duration of heavy rain may be cut down enough to limit the flash
flooding risk since flash flood guidance is around 2 inches in an
hour for much of the forecast area.

For Tuesday evening through Friday, models continue to depict
surface ridging with northwest flow aloft. The drier and cooler
air associated with the surface ridge and a lack of obvious
forcing within the northwest flow leads to a dry forecast with
below normal temps. Lows are forecast to be in the upper 50s and
lower 60s while highs only reach the lower and middle 80s.

By Friday night and into Sunday, the upper ridge to the west
breaks down and the surface ridge weakens as it moves east. This
is expected to allow a return flow to develop. There is also some
indications from the medium range solutions for a low amplitude
wave to move through the central plains Saturday. Because of this
there are some small pops in the forecast for late Friday night
and through Saturday night. Models do not really show any strong
warm air advection within the pattern so temps are expected to
remain relatively cool for the end of august.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 638 pm cdt Sun aug 20 2017
expectVFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Any cumulus clouds
this afternoon will dissipate after sunset. A few cumulus clouds
may develop Monday afternoon. Ceilings on any of the cumulus
clouds will be above 4,000 feet. There could be some moderate
vertical windshear within the lowest 2,000 feet after 8z and
extending through 13z mon, as the low-level jet increases to 30 to
35 kts from the southwest.

Top watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
for ksz011-012-022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

Short term... Baerg
long term... Wolters
aviation... Gargan

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi68 minE 810.00 miFair87°F75°F70%1013.1 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi67 minESE 1210.00 miFair87°F77°F72%1012.6 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi67 minESE 810.00 miFair87°F75°F67%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE5E5E5SE6SE6SE6S5S9W12
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE3SE3N3NW3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNE5N3E43SE5E6SE8SE8SE7E5
2 days agoCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5SE4S5CalmCalmS8S8S6SW66SW9W6SW8NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.