Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:10PM Saturday February 24, 2018 4:04 AM CST (10:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:36PMMoonset 2:20AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 240547
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
1147 pm cst Fri feb 23 2018

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (this evening through Saturday)
issued at 241 pm cst Fri feb 23 2018
clouds have persisted across most of the forecast area today, save
the far northwestern counties in north central kansas. This has
held high temperatures down a few degrees from forecast, and will
likely have a residual influence on where the freezing line ends up
overnight. Temperatures have risen to the middle 30s in nc ks and
down along the i70 corridor, with a few degrees lower to the south
in the thicker cloud deck. Broad area of precipitation in oklahoma
is lifting to the north and east, associated with an impulse lifting
northeast in the broader southwesterly flow aloft.

For tonight, the devil is in the details with the location of the
freezing mark at the surface. Overall pattern is for the western
trof to continue to approach the area, generating warm advection and
isentropic lift ahead of it, with the leading edge of the trof axis
into the western counties by Saturday evening. This will bring a
warmer trend to the eastern counties, but favors keeping the
northern and western counties below freezing through the tonight and
tomorrow timeframe. The line between drizzle and freezing drizzle
will be what we are watching tonight, and will make adjustments as
necessary as this will impact the frozen not frozen aspect of the
forecast.

Considering another night with cold air at the surface, good
agreement between models for no ice in the cloud, and broad
isentropic lift bringing precipitation into the cold dome, have
initiated a winter weather advisory for freezing drizzle across the
northwest half of the forecast area - generally north of i-70. Its
fair to say this is about a row of counties farther south that
initially anticipated, given the persistent clouds and cooler
temperatures left behind today. Also worth noting that as warm
advection continues in the east, it will likely bring the far
eastern counties in the advisory above freezing somewhere near the
noon to early afternoon hours. Given the uncertainty of where the
line begins, wasn't ready to start trimming off counties based on
time this early out. Overall think the advisory best highlights the
areas most likely to see a light accumulation of ice which will
create slick spots on roads and elevated surfaces and have an
impact on travel through Saturday morning. Areas in east central
kansas will likely stay in the rain and drizzle through the
overnight period, with a rumble of thunder possible in the far
southeast. Except for northern portions of our northern counties,
does seem that most areas will rise above freezing on Saturday by
the late afternoon.

Long term (Saturday night through Friday)
issued at 241 pm cst Fri feb 23 2018
some dry weather finally in store from Sunday through Tuesday as
surface high pressure behind the weekend's departing system holds in
place. Highs gradually increase from the 40s and 50s Sunday to the
upper 50s and mid-60s by Tuesday. A low forming on the lee side of
the rockies in colorado strengthens Tuesday night ahead of a mid-
level wave that was sweep across the central plains Wednesday night.

There are some decent precipitation chances with this system, but
temperatures will be warm enough that the dominant precipitation
type should be rain. It is not out of the question for some wintery
mix or snow to fall as temperatures fall overnight on Wednesday,
however. Also for Wednesday afternoon, have continued with the
thunder chances as the GFS and ECMWF indicate sufficient instability
for some elevated storms. Dry conditions return after this system
with models indicating mid-level ridging over the central conus
Thursday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1142 pm cst Fri feb 23 2018
for the 06z tafs, onset of precip has indeed arrived earlier per
previous forecast, but not yet in the form of -fzdz. Temps are
expected to continue to fall, so have kept freezing precip in the
forecast rather than changed to a prevailing -ra then changeover,
which at the current time could take place in the very short term
forecast especially at kmhk. Expect that by 14-15z freezing precip
will no longer be a concern like it will be overnight. Still
forecasting lifr conditions with reasonable confidence as colder
temps and additional moisture settles in over the next several
hours. Improvements come in the last portion of the forecast
period.

Top watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 3 pm cst Saturday for ksz008>012-
020>024-034>036.

Winter weather advisory until 9 am cst Saturday for ksz026-
037>039-054.

Short term... 67
long term... Heller
aviation... Drake


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi72 minNE 52.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist34°F33°F97%1017.7 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi71 minNE 63.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist34°F34°F100%1017.8 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi71 minNE 52.00 miFog/Mist34°F33°F97%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W5W3NW5N3CalmN4N5NW3N4NE5NE3E5E4NE6NE5NE7NE7NE7NE10NE7NE7NE5NE5
1 day agoNE8NE6NE6E8NE8E8NE6E5NE3E9NE6NE7E6E4W3NW3W3W3CalmCalmCalmSW4W5W6
2 days agoN11N8N7N9N7N9N8N8N10NE7NE9NE11NE7N6NE8NE9NE9NE7NE9NE6NE8NE5N6NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.