Sunday, April22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:06PM Sunday April 22, 2018 5:07 PM CDT (22:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:22AMMoonset 1:10AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 221950
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
250 pm cdt Sun apr 22 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 250 pm cdt Sun apr 22 2018
19z water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low over the ozarks
while the surface low associated with this was over the lower ms
river valley. Radar and satellite showed moisture from the low
pressure system was continuing to rotate into eastern ks. Further
west, an area of low pressure was noted over the desert southwest
and a better defined shortwave was located over the pacific
northwest.

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 250 pm cdt Sun apr 22 2018
for tonight and Monday, the forecast is for the weather to
continue to dry out. The general consensus is that as the upper
low continues to drift east any forcing for precip will come to an
end with general subsidence increasing. There may be some
sprinkles linger across east central ks through the evening, but
measurable precip looks unlikely.

Clouds could make overnight lows tricky as some models show the
potential for mid level clouds holding on across eastern ks. Where
skies are more likely to clear out, have lows in the lower 40s
across north central ks with mid and upper 40s across eastern ks
where the cloud cover may hang on. Models mix the boundary layer
pretty deep on Monday in spite of a weak ridge axis over the
region. Because of this and with more insolation with the higher
sun angle, trended highs up a degree or two expecting most areas
to reach the lower 70s.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 250 pm cdt Sun apr 22 2018
there continues to be a couple chances for rain through the mid
week. For Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, there remains some
uncertainty in how the shortwave energy will evolve as it moves
through the plains. Nevertheless most guidance shows a slower
progression to the wave whether it is opened or closed. Because of
this have a chance for rain through the day Wednesday. Don't have
much confidence in including likely pops just yet given the
varying solutions with the energy and trying to highlight one
period with a better chance than another. Models do not show much
if any instability developing with the system so will not include
a mention of thunder in the forecast. Most of eastern ks looks to
remain mild Tuesday with highs reaching the lower 70s, but there
could be a good gradient in highs as the wind shift and increasing
clouds move into north central kansas through the day. So think
highs will be in the 60s for areas west of manhattan. Wednesday
could end up being another cloudy and cool day with scattered
showers. So highs are held down into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For Thursday and Thursday night, models continue to indicate
another shortwave will move through the northwest flow and
potentially amplify as it move across the central plains. The
ecmwf and canadian show light QPF with the frontal passage, but
the GFS remains dry. There are even some timing difference between
the ECMWF and canadian. So only have some slight chance pops for
now, but think there may eventually be a better chance Thursday
afternoon and evening. Hopefully models will start to converge on
a common solution soon.

Upper ridging is progged to develop for Friday through Sunday.

Because of this will keep a dry forecast with warmer temps. The
gfs does show some elevated convection developing within a warm
air advection pattern Saturday night. However it is not supported
by the ECMWF and canadian, and I think it may be because it is
less amplified with the shortwave Thursday night. Given the recent
trends have been for slower solutions to the waves, think the gfs
may be a little early with return flow Saturday night and will
keep the forecast dry for now.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1216 pm cdt Sun apr 22 2018
moisture rotating around the northwest side of the low pressure
system is expected to keep clouds and some light rain or sprinkles
over east central ks into the evening. However relatively dry low
levels should keepVFR conditions prevailing at the terminals.

There may be a brief drop to MVFR as seen over the last couple
hours at foe. But this looks to be transient with little
predictability. Therefore will maintain aVFR forecast expecting
that to be the most dominate condition. The overall trend should
be for improving CIGS through the night as the upper low drifts to
the east and south.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Wolters
short term... Wolters
long term... Wolters
aviation... Wolters


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi76 minE 12 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F48°F52%1017.8 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi75 minENE 15 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F48°F51%1017.7 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi75 minENE 12 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F48°F54%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW13NW10W6SE4CalmNW5NE7NE12NE12NE11NE11NE7NE7NE7N7NE12NE9NE11NE10NE10
G17
NE11E12
G22
NE11
G21
1 day agoE14
G21
E8NE6NE9
G16
NE9NE9NE7NE7E10E6E5E7E6N5E6SE5NE7E7NE6NE11N6N7--N5
2 days agoNE9
G19
E9E5E5E3E3E5CalmE3CalmCalmSE3E5CalmE4SE6SE13
G22
SE14SE12
G24
SE13
G19
E12
G25
SE16
G23
SE15
G24
SE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.