Friday, May26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:38PM Friday May 26, 2017 2:25 AM CDT (07:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:02AMMoonset 8:42PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug

Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 260449
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
1149 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 300 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017
as of early this afternoon, the mid- level ridge was situated
over eastern ks, with the CWA wedged between expansive surface
high pressure centered over the gulf of mexico and low pressure
advancing into western ks. This surface pattern resulted in a
tight pressure gradient over the eastern half of the state, which
was causing southeasterly winds to gust upwards of 25-30mph. These
breezy southeasterly winds supported decent WAA with afternoon
highs reaching into the mid upper 70s. While the regional radar
shows some scattered light reflectivity returns over central ks,
low-level dry air was likely causing this limited moisture to
evaporate before reaching the ground. As a result, have kept a dry
forecast for this afternoon due to the short-range models
consistently staying dry.

By tonight, the surface low will slide southeastward across western
kansas and then into far north central oklahoma, with an inverted
trough extending into the cwa. Models show this inverted trough
stretching into north central ks by mid-evening, with short-range
models showing the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms
to develop along and behind this inverted trough late evening into
the overnight hours. While short-range models continue to vary in
their coverage of this isolated activity, the best potential for
scattered storms looks to be across central to north central ks.

Model soundings suggest that the cap may build back in by around the
time isolated storms develop across north central ks, resulting in
storms becoming more elevated in nature by mid to late evening. With
cape values of 1000-1800 j kg present along with 40kts of 0-6km bulk
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few stronger storms if
they are able to remain organized enough as they enter into north
central ks. The primary hazards would be gusty winds and possibly
some hail.

Models show these isolated storms diminishing early Friday morning
with cloud cover scattering through the day. Sunshine should help to
boost high temperatures into the 80s, and models show dewpoints
rising into the low mid 60s across east central ks. These
conditions combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates will
support CAPE values of 2500-3500 j kg with 0-6km bulk shear values
of around 40kts. While these conditions are obviously favorable for
thunderstorm development, model soundings show a cap remaining in
place through the afternoon hours and, thus, are struggling to
develop any precipitation across east central ks. As a result, have
a dry forecast in place right now through the daytime hours on
Friday. However, if the cap is able to weaken more, then chances
will increase for thunderstorm development, and any storms that
develop would have the potential to be strong to severe.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 300 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017
models continue to show a vort MAX moving across the area late
Friday night and Saturday, mainly across southern neb. With very
steep mid level lapse rates, think there is a reasonable chance
for elevated storms with a risk for hail through the morning
Saturday. The big question is how any morning convection will
impact the location of the frontal boundary and redevelopment
Saturday afternoon. The NAM and GFS continue to indicate the
boundary will be across east central ks during the afternoon with
dewpoints and instability increasing along the boundary. Shear is
progged to be sufficient for supercell storm development during
the afternoon. By the early evening, models push the boundary
south so it may be a scenario where storms form in or near the
forecast area and move east of the area. 0-1km shear values seem
rather modest across east central ks during the afternoon so the
tornado risk may be mitigated due to surface winds veered to the
southwest ahead of the front. Coverage of storms is still not
clear so the forecast only has chance pops through Saturday night.

By Sunday, surface ridging and dryer air should be building into
the area bringing an end to the precip chances through Monday.

Models continue to suggest a low level warm air advection pattern
developing by mid week, but there is not much consistency between
runs are with the different solutions. Because of this there are
small pops sprinkled throughout the forecast for Monday night
through Thursday.

Temps continue to look temperate with models keeping a northwest
flow aloft and no obvious warm air advection. Therefore highs are
expected to generally be in the 70s while lows remain in the 50s.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1149 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017
storms moving in from the west are expected to reach mhk by 06z
and briefly move across top foe between 07-09z. Overall,VFR
conditions have been seen with these thunderstorms so have kept
visbys ceilingsVFR with passing storms. Models are still in
disagreement on MVFR ceilings early this morning, but have opted
to raise bkn ceilings toVFR and only keep sct low ceilings after
11-12z. Winds prevail from the north tomorrow before becoming
light and veering after sunset.

Top watches warnings advisories

Short term... Hennecke
long term... Wolters
aviation... Heller

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi33 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F60°F84%1003.6 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair64°F62°F93%1003.6 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi32 minSE 310.00 miFair66°F60°F81%1003.5 hPa

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmE3E4E4CalmE6S8SE15SE14
1 day agoW6NW6W8W7W8W7NW14NW15NW14NW13
2 days agoCalmCalmW6NW10NW9NW8NW8NW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.