Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM   Moonset 1:00 PM

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FXUS63 KTOP 021126 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 626 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning across the area, then end from west to east through the afternoon and evening.

- Drier air moves in for Friday before another system moves in overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

- Active weather returns again early next week with more chances for rain and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Early this morning a broken line of storms were moving through north central into northeast Kansas. A few of the storms had produced damaging wind gusts as of 07Z. Water vapor shows a perturbation exiting the upper trough over the Rockies over northwest Kansas. This was producing additional convection west of the leading line of storms. Short term models show the storms moving eastward through the morning hours, but weakening as they do so. The potential for severe wind gusts had decreased with eastward extent across northeast Kansas at 08Z. A cold front will move into north central Kansas after 12Z this morning then proceed eastward across the rest of the forecast area exiting areas in east central Kansas later this afternoon. There remains the potential for areas of northeast and east central Kansas to see some isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds and quarter size hail the main hazards. The storms are expected to come to an end in northeast and east central Kansas this evening with the front moving south of the area and forcing for ascent ending as the mid level trough moves off toward the upper midwest. Cool air advection behind the system will bring cooler temperatures to area tonight sending temperatures into the 40s to lower 50s.

Friday is still looking dry through the daytime with surface high pressure over the area. However this will be short lived as another mid level wave sweep across the central Plains Friday night sweeping a cold front through as well. Mass response ahead of the approaching system will bring ample moisture back into central and eastern Kansas. A line of storms is forecast to develop Friday night and then move southeast into Saturday morning. Main hazard with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and to a lesser extent some hail around quarter size. Surface ridge of high pressure ridge as well as ridging aloft moves in for Sunday.

Another potent system takes aim on the central Plains on Monday with a negative tilt shortwave trough moving through. This system will have the potential for severe weather. Dry weather is expected behind the system on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70s and 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Scattered TSRA are expected to continue near the terminals through 17Z with some isolated development thereafter. CIGS will vary from mvfr to ifr with vfr starting at TOP and FOE. A cold front will shift the winds at TOP and FOE at the start of the period. Winds northwest gradually become northerly through 01Z around 10kts. Forecast soundings show improvement to vfr after 20Z at MHK to after 00Z at TOP and FOE.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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