Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:12PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 12:23 AM CDT (05:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:28PMMoonset 7:34AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 260442
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
1142 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 308 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018
as of 18z Tuesday afternoon a neutrally tilted, midlevel trough was
positioned across the northern plains with broad cyclonic flow across
the central plains. An attendant surface trough extended from
eastern wi through northeast ks into west tx. Scattered
thunderstorms have developed within the last hour across northern
mo southern ia where better midlevel moisture and forcing for ascent
reside. Scattered showers and storms are possible across northeast
ks through the afternoon and early evening. Rap and hrrr forecast
soundings suggest upwards of 2,000 j kg of MLCAPE will reside across
east-central ks by mid to late afternoon, along with 40-50 kts of
effective shear. This combination could pose a damaging wind and
hail threat. Additional elevated thunderstorms are possible behind
the surface trough as sufficient residual low level moisture will
reside for upwards of 1,000 MUCAPE to reside across northeast ks.

Sufficient effective shear values will remain greater than 30 kts,
which could support a large hail potential into the early evening
hours. As the main midlevel trough moves east and the surface trough
exits the area to the southeast, all shower and thunderstorm
activity will come to an end from northwest to southeast early this
evening.

Gusty northerly winds between 20 and 30 mph will decrease after
sunset to below 10 mph. Cold air advection combined with plentiful
radiational cooling due to clear skies should yield a cool start to
Wednesday morning with lows in the mid to upper 40s.

A pleasant Wednesday is expected as the surface ridge axis moves
overhead, yielding sunny skies and light winds. High temperatures
are progged to remain in the upper 60s to near 70.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 308 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018
pv anomaly diving south-southeast along the northern rockies helps
reinforce the surface ridge over the southern plains Wednesday night
into Thursday keeps the lower troposphere dry despite a return of
southerly winds. Modest warm air advection should bring highs back
into the mid 70s for most areas Thursday.

The next upper wave rotating southeast through the mean trough
brings another canadian cold front through the area Thursday night
and Friday with precipitation chances low with precipitable water
values remaining below normal. Best chances again look to be in
northeastern areas closer to the deeper forcing with the upper wave.

Chances do increase Friday night into Saturday with isentropic
upglide developing over the front as mid upper flow becomes more
zonal. Differences on the post-frontal anticyclone's intensity give
rise to varying solutions on precipitation potential but any amounts
look to be light. Confidence in temperatures for these periods is not
high with timing differences on the front Friday, persistence and
depth of cloud cover, and cloud precip potential Saturday.

The mean upper trough shifts east early next week though confidence
in the pattern in the western u.S. In specifics in the timing and
location of waves there is not high. West to southwest upper flow
over the central and northern plains should bring predominantly
southerly winds and above normal temps in place.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1141 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018
for the 06z tafs,VFR conditions are expected through the period
with northwesterly winds shifting to the south southeast by
Wednesday evening.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Baerg
long term... 65
aviation... Hennecke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi31 minNNW 710.00 miFair50°F48°F93%1021.6 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi30 minWNW 34.00 miFog/Mist52°F48°F86%1021.7 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi30 minNNW 510.00 miFair53°F48°F83%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE4E3CalmSE5E3SE4S6S7SW7SW12
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N12N4N4NW5N5NW7
1 day agoSE5SE4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmS6S9S7S9S7S9
G15
S8S7S8S6SE5SE4SE3E3E3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSE3SE65E8E6E8E8
G15
--SE4SE6SE5SE5CalmCalmSE5SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.