Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:00PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 11:22 AM CST (17:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:27AMMoonset 9:58PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 121124
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area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
524 am cst Wed dec 12 2018

Short term (today through Thursday)
issued at 344 am cst Wed dec 12 2018
sfc cold front continues to progress southeast out of the CWA while
the upper low lifts into the great lakes region later this morning.

With any appreciable cold air behind the boundary and a weak sfc
ridge translating over the area today, high temps this afternoon are
similar if only slightly cooler compared to yesterday with readings
in the low 50s.

Focus turns towards this evening as the broad upper trough entering
the pac NW currently, dives southeast towards the texas panhandle
late tonight. Low level moisture is progged to lift northward aft
00z tonight impacting mostly eastern kansas in the form of
stratus and patchy fog. Timing and density of this low level
stratus between guidance is highly variable with the NAM runs
being the most aggressive in widespread drizzle fog for east
central kansas while consensus is slower and more shallow. Have
inserted a slight chance for drizzle for these areas aft midnight,
however better confidence exists for rain and or wintry mix to
occur closer to sunrise Thursday as an vorticity lobe upstream of
the main trough lifts towards eastern kansas.

Unfortunately, confidence in precip type is not much higher than
previous forecast. Trends between model guidance suggests the gfs
and SREF being slightly cooler than yesterday with lows in the middle
30s thurs. Morning while the NAM remains the coldest solution
and the ECMWF the warmest. It's also important to note that the
forcing with the lead vort MAX is much weaker on the 00z GFS and
therefore much drier compared to the ec nam. Profilers are similar
in a 4-6c warm nose lifting north ahead of the incoming cold
front, lending to the possibility for a light wintry mix being
possible initially before switching to all snow as the low 30s sfc
temps filter southeast. As the drier air mixes in behind the
front, precip may end quickly for areas north of interstate 70 by
the afternoon. There may be a brief period of light drizzle or
freezing drizzle as moisture is lost in the ice growth layer and
temps warm into the lower 40s.

Towards the interstate 70 corridor and locations southward,
predominant precip type is likely rain with a mix of rain and snow
possible throughout the morning. Overall amounts are very light
with little to no accumulations expected. Next impact to the
region are the strong winds behind the front from Thursday morning
through late evening. North winds are progged to increase between
20 and 25 mph sustained with gusts in excess of 30 mph.

Long term (Thursday evening through Tuesday)
issued at 344 am cst Wed dec 12 2018
Thursday night could see some slick spots on roadways as lows Friday
morning reach the mid-upper 20s. Light rain or drizzle in the
early evening transitions to light snow around midnight over east
central kansas as some models linger the light QPF on the backside
of the system.

Remainder of the extended period is pleasantly dry and mild as
expansive upper ridge blocks any systems from impacting the region
through mid next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 513 am cst Wed dec 12 2018
vfr dominates much of the forecast period with light westerly
winds and clear skies. High and mid clouds increase aft 00z as a
cold front approaches terminals in the 09z to 11z time frame.

Light winds veer to the north, expected to become gusty outside
forecast period. Low confidence exists on northward progression of
MVFR to perhaps ifr stratus aft 09z with the possibility of light
precip developing near 12z. Will leave out precip mention given
its 18 hours out and high uncertainty on coverage.

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Prieto
long term... Prieto
aviation... Prieto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair41°F30°F67%1013.8 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair42°F30°F62%1013.5 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi30 minVar 310.00 miFair41°F30°F67%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S11S10S8S10S7S8S8SW4SW6W10W9W6W6W7W9CalmCalmCalmNW4--CalmCalmCalm
1 day ago4S5SW7W8W8SW7SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E3CalmCalmE3E3E3CalmSE4SE7S6S7
2 days agoNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.