Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:51PM Friday June 22, 2018 6:05 AM CDT (11:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 220835
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
335 am cdt Fri jun 22 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 335 am cdt Fri jun 22 2018
early morning water vapor loop shows upper low moving east into
illinois with energy wrapping around the periphery into eastern
kansas had generated some light rain earlier this morning. Clouds
were also building westward back into central kansas at 0730z.

Further west a shortwave trough was moving into utah at 08z whole
another trough was moving across montana. Surface analysis shows
high pressure over western nebraska at 07z and this feature is
forecast to move east into iowa this evening. Clouds will gradually
clear from west to east today as the upper low over illinois moves
eastward. Highs are expected to range from the mid 70s northeast to
the mid 80s toward central kansas.

The above mentioned waves will move eastward into the plains this
evening and and moving eastward across the plains tonight. Models
are in agreement with convection developing across the western high
plains late this afternoon then moving east southeast as an mcs
primarily across southern kansas. Portions of central and east
central kansas may be clipped by the complex of storms as they move
eastward overnight. Shear and instability will be sufficient for
storms to remain capable of damaging winds and hail as it moves
eastward overnight, mainly across southern kansas and oklahoma
within the moisture and instability axis. Forcing for ascent and
steepening lapse rates will occur with the approach of the mid level
shortwave trough. Additional showers and thunderstorms may occur
further north across north central and northeast kansas as some of
the montana mid level trough will extend southward into far northern
kansas later tonight, these storms are not expected to be severe.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 335 am cdt Fri jun 22 2018
precipitation chances Saturday continue largely continue to hinge on
events of tonight. Expect the bulk of early convection to be to the
south to southeast, but modest moisture advection could support
isolated to scattered development locally. Trends with the weak
upper wave to the north are for a weaker solution, with the
surface effective front to the south likely remaining well south of
east central kansas. The potential for a few stronger storms is in
place with westerly mid level winds approaching 40kts and
moderate ml CAPE values, but overall precipitation chances for
Saturday and Saturday night will be trended down in this forecast.

A more volatile setup evolves in the next few periods as the upper
trough that is approaching the pacific northwest this morning sinks
southeast then tops the central rockies. The specifics on where lee
cyclogenesis will focus remain uncertain, but seasonally-strong
winds aloft under southeasterly low-level flow and high instability
as the warm sector shifts north suggest an environment favorable for
severe thunderstorms to reach central and eastern kansas in the late
afternoon to overnight hours. The depth of the backed winds is
several thousand feet on current depictions and keeps best shear in
the deep layers but a mesocale development of locally deeper near-
surface shear could materialize for a tornado threat along with
large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain with pw values over 2
inches. The upper wave slowly pushes northeast into early next week
an effective front could linger over the area Monday into Tuesday
for additional convective episodes.

The Wednesday into Thursday periods look more benign for
thunderstorms as a weak ridge develops over the central plains but
should bring the very warm temps and elevated humidity.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday)
issued at 1125 pm cdt Thu jun 21 2018
no big changes in the forecast thinking. MVFR CIGS to the north
should continue moving across the area and hang around until late
morning or early afternoon. Potential for an MCS to impact the
terminals Friday night looks to be to low to mention in the
forecast at this time as models suggest it could remain to the
west and south of mhk through 06z.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... 53
long term... 65
aviation... Wolters


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi14 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast67°F64°F93%1009.5 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi13 minNW 710.00 miOvercast67°F64°F91%1009.9 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi13 minNNW 89.00 miOvercast67°F64°F91%1009.6 hPa

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12
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--------W8W10NW8NW9NW8NW7NW7NW5NW5NW7NW6NW6
1 day agoS9S8W8W9W12W11
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W7W10W9W12W8W5SW6W5CalmNW6NW6NW6NW4W4W8W9W9
2 days agoSE4SW11SW11SW12SW9SW9NW6
G18
NE4SE4SE6E8SE8E7S4S7S5S4SE3S4SE4SE5SE4SE4S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.