Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elsah, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:40PM Tuesday December 11, 2018 11:29 PM CST (05:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:30AMMoonset 8:41PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elsah, IL
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location: 38.94, -90.37     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 120447
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
1047 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018

Short term (through late Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 323 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
a cold front currently across the mid-missouri valley is forecast to
quickly swing across the bi-state area overnight tonight. Isolated
showers are possible with this front across portions of northeast
missouri and west-central illinois where low-level convergence and
forcing for mid upper level ascent will be a bit stronger than areas
further south. Otherwise, a likely dry and mild night is in store
for the middle of december across the area as lows only drop back
into the 30s ahead of the boundary.

The cold front will have exited the CWA by early Wednesday morning
with winds veering from the south to the west southwest. Sky
cover is forecast to quickly decrease behind the boundary with the
possible exception of parts of northeast missouri and west-
central illinois, which may get clipped by the southern edge of
the stratus clouds. With most of the region expected to see plenty
of sunshine, leaned toward the warmer mav guidance for high
temperatures for tomorrow. Parts of east-central and southeast
missouri also should observe an additional boost in temperatures
due to favorable west southwest downslope winds off of the ozark
plateau. Highs in these regions will likely reach into the mid 50s
as a result.

Gosselin

Long term (Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
issued at 323 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
(Wednesday night - Friday night)
a well-advertised period of active weather remains on track between
Wednesday night and Friday night. In general, the expectation is for
a fairly long lasting (36 hours long) light to moderate rain event
across much of the area. Heaviest rainfall totals are likely to be
across portions of east-central and southeast missouri as well as
southwest illinois where 1-2 inches is likely. Since this rainfall
will be spread out over a long duration of time with only light to
moderate intensity, not expecting any impacts across the area other
than some modest rises for area rivers.

Regarding the prospects of any wintry weather, chances continue to
lessen compared to 24 to 48 hours ago. Closed low is expected to
develop across the south-central plains Thursday afternoon, with the
northern stream shortwave trough remaining separate and moving into
the great lakes. Without this northern stream component, there will
not be enough cold air within the boundary layer for anything but
liquid precipitation falling to the ground. The 1200 utc cmc gem
still is the only piece of model guidance that shows a different
scenario where a secondary northern stream shortwave trough dives
southeastward on Friday and phases with the closed low. As a
result, there is a changeover from rain to snow across parts of
the area. Since the cmc has no other support from deterministic
(gfs ECMWF nam) or ensemble members of the gefs, its solution for
this forecast package was discounted. There is however a low
probability for a very brief period of freezing rain at the onset
of precipitation early Thursday morning across portions of
northeast missouri and west-central illinois. Given the marginal
surface temperatures (near freezing), warm ground, and very brief
period of freezing rain (if any does indeed occur), there should
not be any impacts to roadways.

(Saturday - next Tuesday)
light rain within the deformation zone should exit the CWA Saturday
morning as the closed low finally meanders into the southeastern
conus. A period of dry and mild weather is likely for the remainder
of the extended forecast period as any real arctic air remains well
to our north and east. Look for high temperatures to reach into the
40s each day, with lows in the 20s and 30s. These temperatures would
be about 5-10 degrees above normal for the middle of december.

Gosselin

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1034 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
cold front extending from surface low over north central iowa will
continue to slide to the east across the forecast area during the
overnight hours. Moisture is limited with this system, so will
just see an increase in mid and high clouds. Main issue will be the
llws associated with the 40 to 45kt low level jet just ahead of
cold front, so kept mention in tafs through 09z-12z Wednesday.

Otherwise,VFR flight conditions will prevail through the
forecast period with south winds veering to the west behind the
cold front with gusts to near 20 kts at times. Winds will
eventually diminish by sunset.

Specifics for kstl:
main forecast issue at kstl continues to be llws as 40kt low level
jet picks up ahead of cold front that will move through by 12z
Wednesday. Otherwise,VFR flight conditions will prevail through
the forecast period with south winds veering to the west behind
the cold front with gusts to near 20 kts at times. Winds will
diminish by 21z Wednesday.

Byrd

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Charles, St. Charles County Smartt Airport, MO3 mi35 minSE 410.00 miFair42°F28°F60%1015 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO12 mi38 minS 1210.00 miOvercast46°F30°F54%1015.4 hPa
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL17 mi34 minS 1110.00 miFair40°F31°F72%1015.6 hPa
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO24 mi35 minSSW 9 G 1810.00 miFair46°F28°F51%1015 hPa

Wind History from SET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6S4SW8SW8SW9S4S5E3SE5E4SE5S3SE6SE4
1 day agoW4N3CalmNW3W4W5CalmNW3W4CalmW44SW4W4W4W5W3S3S4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalm
2 days agoNE9N8NE9N5N5NE7NE7NE5N6N6N6N5N7N10N7N8N9N6N6N6N5NW3N6NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.