Sunday, March24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elsah, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:17PM Sunday March 24, 2019 4:05 AM CDT (09:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:38PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elsah, IL
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location: 38.94, -90.37     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 240850
afdlsx
area forecast discussion
national weather service saint louis mo
350 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019

Short term (through late tonight)
issued at 350 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019
the focus for the short term will be on thunderstorm severe weather
chances this afternoon and early evening. A closed 500mb low
currently over the nebraska kansas border will drift east into
northern missouri today. The surface reflection of this low will
drift east-southeast from south central nebraska to near columbia by
early evening as the upper level system takes on a positive tilt and
begins to open up. Low level moisture will continue to increase
today across the forecast area ahead of the low as 50+ dew points
stream up out of the southeast plains into the mid mississippi
valley. Short range models all show convection breaking out this
afternoon ahead of the cold front in this increasingly moist and
unstable airmass. Latest rap forecasts show as much as 1000-1500
j kg SBCAPE and even as much as 1000 j kg MLCAPE this afternoon
ahead of the front basically along and south of i-70 in missouri and
extreme southwest illinois. Current thinking is that morning
cloudiness will give way to at least partial clearing ahead of the
front, and strong late march sunshine will certainly make these
instability numbers possible. Along with the instability, 40-50kts
of 0-6km shear is being forecast by the rap and GFS which should
support rotating updrafts to assist in hail production. Also of
note, the 0-1km bulk shear is forecast to be in the 20-25kt range
this afternoon. Rap also shows somewhat backed surface flow ahead
of the front... Although it's not particularly strong. Given all
this large hail will likely be the primary threat, but a tornado or
two cannot be ruled out given the low level shear.

Convection allowing models (cams) really blow up storms between 19-
20z this afternoon. This seems reasonable as this will likely
correspond well with the development of maximum instability ahead of
the front. The storms look discrete for the first few hours between
20-23z, but most cams merge them up into clusters or a broken line
by 00z as the convection is heading into southeast missouri and
southwest illinois. Lingering showers and storms are likely behind
the main line tonight as the stacked 850-500mb low drifts southeast
across the area, however instability looks pretty limited after
sunset with lingering 100-200 j kg MUCAPE back behind the surface
low across eastern missouri and southwest illinois.

Carney

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 350 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019
northwest flow aloft will prevail over our region through Tuesday
night with an upper ridge positioned upstream.

The period will begin with the tail-end of the storm system that
impacted us on Sunday. It is anticipated that an extensive low
cloud field will begin Monday morning and very slowly erode from
north to south during the day. Cyclonic flow around the backside of
the departing surface wave of low pressure early Monday morning
should be sufficient to support areas of drizzle that will gradually
fade away during the morning hours. This drizzle potential should
be focused mainly for areas south of interstate 70 where this better
weak convergent low level flow will exist. The slow anticipated
clearing of low clouds and north surface flow maintaining CAA will
keep temps rather chilly and leaned heavily toward the colder met
mos numbers for areas near and south of i-70, and more of a mos
blend for areas in northern mo and central il where partial clearing
should occur. The final result will yield widespread MAX temps in
the upper 40s to near 50.

A period of quiet, dry weather is then expected Monday night
through Wednesday. The main highlight will be a chilly night on
Monday night, with early Tuesday morning temperatures dipping into
the 20s for areas north of interstate 70 closest to the anticipated
location of the surface ridge axis at 12z tue. Sub-freezing
temperatures are still expected for most other locations but closer
to around 30. This could cause issues for early sprouting plants,
but for the most part, the growing season has not begun yet. Max
temps on Tuesday should edge back closer to seasonal values with
temperatures already returning to above normal on Wednesday thanks
to a developing southerly return flow.

A period of SW upper flow will also bring with it more active
weather for late week and the upcoming weekend. Weak upper level
disturbances in an increasingly moist column will result in chances
for showers Thursday and showers and a few thunderstorms on Friday.

The ejection of the main system at the base of the upper trof for
Saturday will likely prolong precipitation chances into the weekend
but different depictions of the structure of the storm system will
lead to some low potential for a brief period of snow in areas of
northern mo if the system ends up being more wrapped up. Not a big
concern at this time.

Stout southerly flow on Thursday could push temps well past 70f for
some areas, and if rain holds off enough on Friday, it could happen
again that day. Colder more seasonable air will try to make a
return for the weekend behind a cold frontal passage on Friday
night.

Tes

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1025 pm cdt Sat mar 23 2019
a surface ridge centered over the ohio valley region will move
southeastward, while a surface low over north central ks moves
eastward into northwest mo Sunday morning, then southeastward into
southern il late Sunday evening. Showers will continue to move
through the st louis metro area late tonight, and possibly also
in uin and cou as well as a southwest low level jet brings
increasing low level moisture into our area, and a weak warm front
moves northeastward through the region. The cloud ceiling will
lower into the MVFR category in uin and cou late tonight and early
Sunday morning, and also possibly in the st louis metro area as
well. There will be a break in the precipitation during the
morning hours after 12z, but then scattered showers and storms
will develop by late Sunday afternoon into the early evening along
and just ahead of the surface low and trailing cold front. A
southeast surface wind will continue late tonight and Sunday
morning, becoming northerly Sunday evening after passage of the
surface low and cold front.

Specifics for kstl: a surface ridge centered over the ohio valley
region will move southeastward, while a surface low over north
central ks moves eastward into northwest mo Sunday morning, then
southeastward into southern il late Sunday evening. Showers will
continue to move through the stl area late tonight as a southwest
low level jet brings increasing low level moisture into our area,
and a weak warm front moves northeastward through the region. The
cloud ceiling may lower into the MVFR category late tonight and
early Sunday morning. There will be a break in the precipitation
during the morning hours after 12z, but then scattered showers and
storms will develop by late Sunday afternoon into the early
evening along and just ahead of the surface low and trailing cold
front. A southeast surface wind will continue late tonight and
Sunday morning, becoming northerly Sunday evening after passage of
the surface low and cold front.

Gks

Hydrology
Major river flooding is ongoing at saverton lock and dam on the
mississippi river, otherwise, several locations on the mississippi
river will continue to be in or are forecast to reach moderate
flooding. In addition, the missouri river at jefferson city and
the illinois river at hardin is currently or is forecast to reach
moderate flooding. The local spring flood outlook will be updated
next week, no later than Thursday, march 28.

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Charles, St. Charles County Smartt Airport, MO3 mi12 minE 54.00 miFog/Mist43°F42°F97%1018.6 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO12 mi15 minESE 47.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%1019 hPa
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL17 mi11 minN 010.00 miFair42°F40°F94%1019.3 hPa
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO24 mi12 minN 08.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from SET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5E5E5E11SE8SE10SE12E13
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1 day agoW9W9W9W6NW10NW4W7W8W8W11
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2 days agoNW10N9NW8NW12N10
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NW13NW12NW10--W3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W7NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.