Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elsah, IL

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:56PM Sunday September 23, 2018 7:25 AM CDT (12:25 UTC) Moonrise 5:38PMMoonset 4:13AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elsah, IL
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location: 38.94, -90.37     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 231155
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
655 am cdt Sun sep 23 2018

Short term (through late tonight)
issued at 349 am cdt Sun sep 23 2018
a surface ridge extended from the great lakes region southwest
into northeastern mo with a stationary front extending from the
southern plains northeast into the tennessee valley region.

Persistent cloudiness continued across southeast mo and southwest
il, southeast of stl. Steam fog was developing in the river
valleys, particularly at sus and jef where the sky was clear, the
surface wind calm, and the air temperature quite cool over the warm
river water. It appears that most of the rain today will remain
southeast of our forecast area, although could not rule out patchy
light rain, mainly this afternoon across parts of southeast mo,
south of fam into a small portion of southwest il. The cloud cover
will advect northwestward tonight with an increasing chance of
showers across southeast mo and southwest il ahead of a weak
southern stream shortwave. A modest south-southwesterly low level
jet over northeast ar into western ky will bring increasing low
level moisture into this area. Will see slightly warmer
temperatures today and tonight with a gradual rise in the surface
dew points. Highs today will be close to seasonal normals for late
september, with lows tonight slightly above normal.

Gks

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 349 am cdt Sun sep 23 2018
broad, cyclonic upper level flow will dominate the work week, with a
few focused shortwaves passing through the central conus. The
first wave will eject out of the northern rockies on Monday and
result in low level cyclogenesis across the northern plains while
a secondary surface cyclone develops across the tx ok panhandles.

The secondary low will lift a stationary front north out of the
mid-south and through the mid mississippi valley, bringing above
normal temperatures back to the region on Monday and Tuesday.

Forecast guidance continues to show focused precip along the front
Monday morning, especially in areas east of the mississippi, and
then lingering warm sector showers and storms.

The upper level shortwave will continue eastward Tuesday, kicking
both the northern and southern surface cyclones downstream. This
will result in a fairly potent cold front sweeping through the
region on later on Tuesday. Models still disagree on the exact
timing of the front, with the GFS euro putting the front on our nw
doorstep by 00z and the NAM gem a bit faster. Ahead of the front,
guidance is showing MLCAPE building to 1000-1500 j kg and 0-6km
bulk shear around 40 kts. While the front will be the primary
source for low level forcing, all guidance shows continued warm
sector precip on Tuesday afternoon thanks to the cyclonic flow
aloft and weak warm air advection. With the above CAPE shear
parameter space, there is a slight risk that any storms that do
develop ahead of or along the front become strong to severe.

Additionally, should the front move through the region a bit
earlier than expected, it would align well with peak instability,
and the threat for severe weather would increase. The severe
weather risk is highlighted by the latest SPC day 3 outlook, with
a slight risk across a large portion of the cwa.

We'll remain beneath upper level cyclonic flow behind the frontal
passage, with another embedded shortwave passing the region on
Thursday. This wave will result in another round of surface
cyclogenesis across the northern conus, and will eventually drag the
tail end of another cold front through the region. With little
moisture at the surface, this will likely be a dry frontal passage
for us. The primary impact for the mid-mississippi valley will be a
reinforcing shot of cooler air. Otherwise, surface high pressure
will dominate for the latter half of the work week. By the weekend,
forecast guidance begins to diverge quite a bit, but it does look
like an unsettled pattern will settle back in over the region,
with a deep surface cyclone moving into the midwest
bsh

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 543 am cdt Sun sep 23 2018
surface ridge extends from mi southwest into northeastern mo. A
stationary front extends from northeastern tx northeast into
central ky. Intermittent river valley fog may impact sus until 14z
this morning. Low level cloudiness around 4000 feet will develop
or advect into stl and sus later this morning as it already has in
cps. The low level cloudiness will gradually lower into the MVFR
category late tonight and advect into cou from the st louis metro
area. There may also be light fog as well late tonight. An east-
northeast surface wind will continue through the forecast period.

Specifics for kstl: surface ridge extends from mi southwest into
northeastern mo. A stationary front extends from northeastern tx
northeast into central ky. Low level cloudiness around 4000 feet
will develop or advect into stl later this morning as it already
has in cps. The low level cloudiness will gradually lower into the
MVFR category late tonight, then drop to around 1000 feet by
early Monday morning. There may also be light fog as well late
tonight early Monday morning. An east-northeast surface wind will
continue through the forecast period.

Gks

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Charles, St. Charles County Smartt Airport, MO3 mi31 minN 410.00 miFair52°F50°F93%1019.5 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO12 mi34 minNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F54°F90%1019.3 hPa
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL17 mi38 minN 610.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F51°F100%1019.6 hPa
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO24 mi31 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist Shallow Fog52°F52°F100%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from SET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE9NE9NE8E9NE7SE6SE5--E9
G15
E9E6NE3E5E4SE5E6E5NE3CalmNE3NE4NE4N4
1 day agoW8NW5----W12
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2 days agoE4S4S9SW9S14
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S11S10S8S7S9S9S6S8S6CalmS4CalmSW8SW10

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.