Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:56PM Sunday November 19, 2017 1:36 PM PST (21:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 6:15PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Point Arena To Point Reyes To 10 Nm- 831 Am Pst Sun Nov 19 2017
Today..SE winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 13 seconds.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Rain likely.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of rain in the evening, then slight chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 12 seconds. Slight chance of rain.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft. Chance of rain.
Thanksgiving day..NW winds 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft. Chance of rain.
PZZ500 831 Am Pst Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... High pressure off the coast of central california will continue bring light west to northwest winds today for the southern coastal waters. Winds will switch out of the south through the day today for the northern coastal waters, ahead of a frontal system. The front will stall off the southern oregon/northern california coast, so southerly winds will persist.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, CA
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location: 38.95, -123.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Eureka, CA
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Fxus66 keka 191210
afdeka
area forecast discussion
national weather service eureka ca
410 am pst Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis A cool dry air mass will persist across the region
today. Tonight, a front will approach northwest california
tonight into Monday resulting in the development of moderate to
heavy rain and gusty winds. Wet and unsettled weather will likely
continue through late in the week.

Discussion High pressure continues to bring cool and dry
conditions to the area this morning. Temperatures have dropped
into the mid 30s at the coast with some freezing temperatures in
the inland areas. Expanded the frost advisory out closer to the
coast in humboldt and mendocino county. The light east to
southeast winds continue to dry out the airmass.

High clouds have started to stream across the area this morning
ahead of an atmospheric river approaching the west coast. The
models have the rain moving in slightly sooner than previous
runs, with rain starting Sunday evening mainly over the higher
terrain of del norte county. Sunday night and Monday this rain
will spread across the area. The models continue to struggle with
location and amounts of the rainfall. In general the models have
trended wetter. The GFS is the wettest, the ECMWF and SREF are
much drier while the name is in the middle. The naefs ensemble
mean shows integrated vapor transport (ivt) values over 500. Opted
to trend the QPF up towards the wpc amounts which are closer to
the gfs, but still below it. If the models are consistent with
these rainfall amounts a flood watch may be needed for del norte
county for small streams. This is a weakly forced, but very moist
waa type of system and typically terrain plays a big role in these
type of situations. The south slopes and peaks will like get a
lot more rain, while the valleys and humboldt bay area may not see
a whole lot of rain. Breezy winds are expected with this system,
but at this point a wind advisory is not expected.

Early Monday there could be some snow as low as 5,000 feet in
eastern trinity county, but these are expected to rise quickly and
remain well above pass level through the week.

Monday night models show this atmospheric river drifting back to
the north. Tuesday through the end of the week models show moist
southwest flow persisting over the area. Breezy southeast winds
will persist at the surface and this may warm temperatures at the
coast. Mex guidance is showing temperatures in the 60s at kacv.

At this point it is difficult to pinpoint rainfall amounts on any
particular day, although there will likely be periods of rain
through the week. With this moist flow if there is a slightly
stronger shortwave it could bring a decent amount of rain. Mkk

Aviation Satellite imagery is currently showing high clouds
moving over the region and prior to its arrival there was some low
cloud fog showing up in some of our river valleys. The good news is
that the forecast points have been reportingVFR conditions all
night and should continue to due so until a storm system moves over
the region later tonight. Statistical guidance and bufkit data show
MVFR to ifr conditions with the passage of this system, but lifr
will not be out of the question for sites north of mendocino county.

The other concern is the threat of wind shear tonight. Models depict
roughly 20 kt of wind shear at kcec and kacv which has been added
to the tafs.

Marine Winds will continue to shift to the south today as a
storm system advances towards the pacific northwest. Near gale force
gusts are expected for the northern outer waters; however,
confidence was not high enough that frequent gale force gust would
occur to warrant a gale warning. Thus a small craft advisory was
issued instead. Other zones will experience winds just below gale
threshold thus small craft advisories were issued. Steep seas will
be generated from these winds, which combined with another fresh
northwesterly swell, will allow for a chaotic sea state. Southerly
winds and steep seas will then dominate the forecast through the
middle of the week with winds easing and seas subsiding Thursday
into Friday.

Eka watches warnings advisories
Ca... Frost advisory until 10 am pst this morning for caz102>106-109-
112.

Northwest california coastal waters...

small craft advisory from 1 am to 4 pm pst Monday
for pzz450.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 pm pst
Tuesday for pzz470.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm pst Monday for pzz455.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 4 pm pst Tuesday
for pzz475.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 3 mi48 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 56°F 55°F1019.2 hPa
46014 - PT ARENA - 19NM North of Point Arena, CA 24 mi36 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 1018.4 hPa (-2.9)

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ukiah Municipal Airport, CA31 mi40 minVar 310.00 miFair56°F33°F42%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from UKI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4Calm3
1 day agoCalmCalmW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN3N4SE4SE3E4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN44N3

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arena, California
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Point Arena
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:46 AM PST     2.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:43 AM PST     5.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:57 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:48 PM PST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:15 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.64.33.73.12.62.52.83.54.35.25.85.95.54.53.21.80.6-0.1-0.30.10.923.14

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arena, California Current
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Point Arena
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:34 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:49 AM PST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:13 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:55 AM PST     0.75 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:44 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:55 PM PST     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:58 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:15 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:55 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:57 PM PST     1.04 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.60.70.60.3-0.1-0.7-1.2-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.500.60.910.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Eureka, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.